Links: A. Putin steps up rhetoric against the West.
B. Russia, Iran and Iraq set up military joint coordination cell.
Everyday the media presents the international community with another example of motivated, well-planned Russian activity vis-à-vis Syria and Iraq. Three weeks ago, the Russians announced their intention to become directly militarily involved in Syria, and since that time every day brings additional evidence of the arrival in Syria of Russian troops, personnel accommodation, artillery, mobile surface-to-air units, tanks, and air resources. Week-by-week, northeastern Syria, so recently threatened by both ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, becomes more militarized; soon we can expect to see Russian jets flying sorties against ISIS positions. Putin has already demanded that the Allied Air Coalition, led by the United States, must coordinate its activities with Russia, although he made no mention of advising the Pentagon regarding Russian military deployments in Syria. Interestingly, the Russians are becoming more active in Iraq, having the confidence to openly announce the creation of a joint military coordination cell. Given that the Russians have recently started construction on two large military bases on the border with Ukraine, and that negotiations are underway for the creation of a Russian Air Base in Belarus, the events we are witnessing are obviously part of a much broader, long-term strategy which is aimed at eclipsing the United States as the world superpower, and they couldn't have asked for a more compliant U.S. president.
Putin has managed to push Ukraine completely off of the headlines, which is one goal achieved, and his willingness to accept the mantle of "defender of the west" against ISIS will do wonders in reforming his image in Europe. The Russian diplomatic maneuvers, including the establishment of the Baghdad military coordination cell, alongside the relaxation of tension in Ukraine and the building of military bases, obviously point to the existence of a much more intensive Russian agenda. Putin has signed on with Iran, who will play a pivotal role in the new world that Putin envisions. Russia has fought hard in the United Nations on Iran's behalf. Any one of a dozen efforts to punish Iran for violating international treaty regarding their nuclear research, could have put the Iranians back another decade from their end goal. But Russia stepped in as they always do when creating a client state (see Hafez al-Assad and Syria), and blocked any real effort to bring the Iranians into compliance. Russia realized that it was only time until Barack Obama, in search of a "Legacy" event, would step up and lead the emasculated Europeans right into a Treaty with Iran which requires nothing of Tehran, and gives them what they most need: not continued nuclear research, but access to the international arms market sans sanctions. Now that Russia has declared her intentions in Syria (to defeat ISIS), Turkey and the United States had better be prepared for the damage coming vis-à-vis the proposed "ISIS-free zone". Turkey will give Russia a free-hand in Syria for the moment, in order to not compromise the all-important natural gas pipeline plan, even though watching Assad use up another one of his nine lives must be driving Erdogan bananas. And the United States? As long as Obama is in office, Putin, Iran and Russia have an open playing field. You see, Obama will not take any action that might endanger his legacy nuclear treaty with Iran. He knows that many Iranians, especially in the religious extremist community, are opposed to any treaty with "The Great Satan". He will not approve any diplomatic or military action that might offend the Iranians.
There can be no doubt that Russia intends to make martyrs out of ISIS in both Syria and Iraq. Expect Iranian activity in Iraq to increase dramatically in the next few months, with the possibility of Iranian troops either swelling the ranks of the militias incognito, or with the intrusion into Iraq of the Iranian Army at the invitation of the Iraqi govt. Very soon the political stalemate in Baghdad will work itself out, with one of three outcomes: first, the Abadi govt. holds firm, but the failure of the Iranian Security Forces in Ramadi and the real threat to the capital posed by ISIS compels Abadi to welcome Iranian military involvement; second, Abadi falls and is replaced by a compliant, pro-Iranian govt., which immediately begins to cross the Iran/Iraq border; or third, the Iranians just do as the wish and cross the border on their own schedule, as the United States won't complain much. The next month will probably provide an ample supply of fireworks, and demonstrate just how prostrate the United States has become internationally.
Showing posts with label Pentagon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pentagon. Show all posts
Monday, September 28, 2015
Sunday, September 20, 2015
The Obama Administration continues to fail in all areas of diplomacy and foreign policy, and Putin works to build an anti-ISIS coalition.
Links: A. U.S. begins training anti-ISIS fighters in Syria.
B. Obama spends 500 million to train 5 anti-ISIS operatives.
C. Putin intentions in Syria.
It was only last May, that President Obama announced that the United States would begin training an "anti-ISIS" force to act as "boots on the ground" and supplement the U.S.-led allied air coalition. Since then, there has been a remarkable dearth of information on the training program, although a few titles were tossed to the media, including "Free Syrian Army" and "New Syrian Army". During the summer, while ISIS expanded its operations in Iraq, and increased its hold over Syrian territory, we wondered what had become of this expensive initiative. Certainly someone needed to stand up to ISIS besides Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), who, aside from their direct affiliation with Al-Qaeda, at least had a decent record in combat with the Islamic State. This week we learned that up-to-now, the first part of the training program was complete, and after spending $500 million, the U.S. had a grand total of five operatives ready to stand up to ISIS in Syria. Granted, the Pentagon is quick to point out that over the next three faces of the program, another one-hundred twenty operatives will complete their training, but that leaves us with one-hundred twenty five, to take on roughly thirty thousand rugged, experienced ISIS members. This Administration knows how to spend money like nobody's business; at least it gives us some idea how the United States went from $3 trillion in debt, to almost $20 trillion, in less than seven years. But that is a subject for another day.
From a foreign policy perspective, this Administration hangs its hat on three accomplishments: the killing of bin-Laden, the signing of the New Start Treaty, and this new nuclear treaty with Iran that has yet to be ratified by Congress. I would have added a fourth accomplishment, but the Obama Administration doesn't talk much anymore about the quick withdrawal of troops of Iraq, probably because ISIS dived right into the vacuum left behind. The disaster known as the New Start Treaty has already been dissected on this blog, as has the nuclear treaty with Iran. So how does the Obama Administration stack up, as diplomatic accomplishments go? Obama began his term in office with what is affectionately known as "the apology tour" through the Middle East. When the Arab Spring blossomed, we were nowhere to be seen. We were in no position to respond effectively to any of the developments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. We become totally reactive, trying to jump quickly as soon as something happened. When Russia invaded Georgia, we had little response, and when Putin charged into Ukraine and swallowed up Crimea, Obama looked in someone else's ancient playbook and decided to lead our brave European allies in a new sanctions regime. As the Russians increased their aggression, the sanctions grew, and we were told that the Russian economy would eventually crack. I had to ask myself if ANYONE in this administration knew the slightest thing about the Russians. If you want to intimidate or persuade the Russians to change their policy, don't waste your time on an economic approach. The Russian people are insulted when someone tries to starve them into acquiescence; they understand what it means to cut back and do without, and if it means giving the finger to the U.S. and Europe, they will tell you to bring on your sanctions! I understood this simple cultural quirk when the crisis began, here we are, over a year later, and those mighty sanctions have still not managed to bring the Russian bear to its knees. In fact, I think the Russians are actually expanding their footprint internationally, sending troops and tanks to fight ISIS in Syria. I guess they figured someone had to do it, and unless it can be wrapped up in a sanctions regime or dropped from a jet fighter high up in the sky, Obama and the United States are not going to step up to the plate.
For every international crisis that has occurred since 2008, the United States has failed miserably in its response. It truly resembles amateur hour at Foggy Bottom. All the while, the Russians have truly started stretching their wings. No doubt Putin chose the Syrian city of Latakia as the arrival location of the first wave of Russian troops and equipment for a number of reasons. Latakia is on the coast, and would make an ideal location for a Russian naval base to access the Mediterranean. Also, NW Syria is home to Syria's influential Alawite minority, not to mention a number of other ethnic minorities including Christians. Putin, as he embraces the mantle of "International Leader", will guise himself as the protector of all the various religious and ethnic minorities in Syria. And what makes Putin's position so enviable, is that he is ready to back up his new role by putting Russian troops and tanks on the ground to confront ISIS. The United States could have made the same choice, and would probably have been better equipped and experienced to wipe out ISIS in record-time. But Obama doesn't appear to care much for the U.S. military, and makes use of our Armed Forces only in specific scenarios. First and foremost, we must not put a soldier or pilot or sailor in harms way. Military deaths do not translate well into Democratic votes. Given how the leaders of Europe snivel at his feet whenever there is a joint appearance, there is no question that they would have directed their military to join an Obama coalition to destroy ISIS. But Obama was not up to the task, regardless of how quickly the job could have been accomplished and how few casualties would have resulted. So Putin has moved into the vacuum, and so far, is doing an admirable job. Cheers to you, Vlad. Take out a couple of those ISIS bastards for me, will ya?
B. Obama spends 500 million to train 5 anti-ISIS operatives.
C. Putin intentions in Syria.
It was only last May, that President Obama announced that the United States would begin training an "anti-ISIS" force to act as "boots on the ground" and supplement the U.S.-led allied air coalition. Since then, there has been a remarkable dearth of information on the training program, although a few titles were tossed to the media, including "Free Syrian Army" and "New Syrian Army". During the summer, while ISIS expanded its operations in Iraq, and increased its hold over Syrian territory, we wondered what had become of this expensive initiative. Certainly someone needed to stand up to ISIS besides Jabhat al-Nusra (JN), who, aside from their direct affiliation with Al-Qaeda, at least had a decent record in combat with the Islamic State. This week we learned that up-to-now, the first part of the training program was complete, and after spending $500 million, the U.S. had a grand total of five operatives ready to stand up to ISIS in Syria. Granted, the Pentagon is quick to point out that over the next three faces of the program, another one-hundred twenty operatives will complete their training, but that leaves us with one-hundred twenty five, to take on roughly thirty thousand rugged, experienced ISIS members. This Administration knows how to spend money like nobody's business; at least it gives us some idea how the United States went from $3 trillion in debt, to almost $20 trillion, in less than seven years. But that is a subject for another day.
From a foreign policy perspective, this Administration hangs its hat on three accomplishments: the killing of bin-Laden, the signing of the New Start Treaty, and this new nuclear treaty with Iran that has yet to be ratified by Congress. I would have added a fourth accomplishment, but the Obama Administration doesn't talk much anymore about the quick withdrawal of troops of Iraq, probably because ISIS dived right into the vacuum left behind. The disaster known as the New Start Treaty has already been dissected on this blog, as has the nuclear treaty with Iran. So how does the Obama Administration stack up, as diplomatic accomplishments go? Obama began his term in office with what is affectionately known as "the apology tour" through the Middle East. When the Arab Spring blossomed, we were nowhere to be seen. We were in no position to respond effectively to any of the developments in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. We become totally reactive, trying to jump quickly as soon as something happened. When Russia invaded Georgia, we had little response, and when Putin charged into Ukraine and swallowed up Crimea, Obama looked in someone else's ancient playbook and decided to lead our brave European allies in a new sanctions regime. As the Russians increased their aggression, the sanctions grew, and we were told that the Russian economy would eventually crack. I had to ask myself if ANYONE in this administration knew the slightest thing about the Russians. If you want to intimidate or persuade the Russians to change their policy, don't waste your time on an economic approach. The Russian people are insulted when someone tries to starve them into acquiescence; they understand what it means to cut back and do without, and if it means giving the finger to the U.S. and Europe, they will tell you to bring on your sanctions! I understood this simple cultural quirk when the crisis began, here we are, over a year later, and those mighty sanctions have still not managed to bring the Russian bear to its knees. In fact, I think the Russians are actually expanding their footprint internationally, sending troops and tanks to fight ISIS in Syria. I guess they figured someone had to do it, and unless it can be wrapped up in a sanctions regime or dropped from a jet fighter high up in the sky, Obama and the United States are not going to step up to the plate.
For every international crisis that has occurred since 2008, the United States has failed miserably in its response. It truly resembles amateur hour at Foggy Bottom. All the while, the Russians have truly started stretching their wings. No doubt Putin chose the Syrian city of Latakia as the arrival location of the first wave of Russian troops and equipment for a number of reasons. Latakia is on the coast, and would make an ideal location for a Russian naval base to access the Mediterranean. Also, NW Syria is home to Syria's influential Alawite minority, not to mention a number of other ethnic minorities including Christians. Putin, as he embraces the mantle of "International Leader", will guise himself as the protector of all the various religious and ethnic minorities in Syria. And what makes Putin's position so enviable, is that he is ready to back up his new role by putting Russian troops and tanks on the ground to confront ISIS. The United States could have made the same choice, and would probably have been better equipped and experienced to wipe out ISIS in record-time. But Obama doesn't appear to care much for the U.S. military, and makes use of our Armed Forces only in specific scenarios. First and foremost, we must not put a soldier or pilot or sailor in harms way. Military deaths do not translate well into Democratic votes. Given how the leaders of Europe snivel at his feet whenever there is a joint appearance, there is no question that they would have directed their military to join an Obama coalition to destroy ISIS. But Obama was not up to the task, regardless of how quickly the job could have been accomplished and how few casualties would have resulted. So Putin has moved into the vacuum, and so far, is doing an admirable job. Cheers to you, Vlad. Take out a couple of those ISIS bastards for me, will ya?
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
Blame to go around as the Anbar Offensive against ISIS sputters to a halt on the outskirts of Ramadi.
Link: The Anbar offensive appears to be failing.
Over the past few weeks, we've scoured news sources coming from Iraq, trying to get an accurate perspective on the offensive in Anbar Province that the Iraqi Security Forces' (ISF) launched in May. The offensive operation, which included a simultaneous attack on ISIS-held Fallujah by the Shi'a militias/Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), had been planned to the smallest detail and included the training and equipment to deal with remote detonation explosives, booby-traps and urban warfare. The last few days of May slipped away, then June. In July, the Iraqi government started hinting that progress was being made, and that bit-by-bit, landmarks on the outskirts of the two cities had been secured. In July, the government responded to questions about the slow pace of the offensive by reminding the media that the ISF wasn't singularly tasked with removing ISIS from Ramadi; the ISF was also responsible for locating and removing/defusing all the explosives and booby traps being left by ISIS to greet the returning residents of Ramadi. The Iraqi government added that all the lessons learned from the last ISIS occupation of Ramadi were being considered in the staging of the current offensive. That explanation sure sounded good to me, especially when the Iraqi government also took the time to thank the coalition air campaign for its accurate and decidedly helpful bombing sorties. As August started to roll by, I was distracted by ISIS attacks in Diyala Province and the concerns regarding Baiji and Haditha. Then the government announced its reform agenda, which immediately pushed Ramadi from the front page, and temporarily from my mind. So we've waded through the reform issue, knowing as we did beforehand that Nouri al-Maliki would call in every marker owed to him to fight off this assault on his power base. Now that the militias have cast their lot with Maliki, the political battle-lines are drawn. But with the militias in the mix, we may end up seeing more violence on the streets of Basra than we are seeing on the streets of Ramadi.
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's bold moves to reform the Iraqi political system will play out as a backdrop to developments in Anbar. The Iraqi government's most immediate concern must be the growing impression that ISIS has not only fought off the Anbar offensive, but has started harassing the outlying villages around Baghdad as they had done before. Iraqi Major General Qasim al-Mohammadi, the head of Anbar Operations Command, is quick with assurances that the offensive is still on track, and that it takes time to clear out every housing cluster, every shop, and every abandoned structure, taking care to remove all unexploded ordinance. The fact that we've heard this line before doesn't make it any less accurate. From the beginning, our sources stressed that the Iraqi operational plan was built on lessons learned from previous encounters with ISIS. Also, the Iraqi Army had a serious morale problem that had to be addressed before the Anbar operation. One of the most frequent complaints was that officers showed indifference to the lives of the frontline troops. The training modules for the Iraqi Army, including officers, now address that issue. The slow rate of advance could be a reflection of Iraqi officers being more careful when putting troops in danger. But Major General al-Mohammadi also expressed frustration with the allied air campaign. He was very clear, as he was interviewed from his hospital bad after surviving a suicide bomb attack, that the allied air resources are stretched too thin, that there are too many competing targets. The Pentagon was quick to deny this claim, pointing out that the U.S. spends roughly ten million dollars everyday on the allied air campaign, and that over the last year, coalition warplanes have carried out over four thousand airstrikes in Iraq.
If history is any indication, then bad news is just around the corner. Normally, when fingers get pointed, accountability is a no-show, and vital questions remain unanswered, then something is about to fall apart. We were surprised to learn from the linked Washington Post article that ISIS maintains contact between its Fallujah and Ramadi cells, through the continued existence of a well-known road. Why hasn't this road been obliterated by airstrikes? How is it, that after months of news releases from not only the Iraqi government but on occasion by the Pentagon, pointing out the growing encirclement of ISIS units in Ramadi and Fallujah, that we now learn that ISIS forces in Ramadi and Fallujah are not isolated and are actually in regular contact with each other. Given the ground resources poured into this operation, and the complete lack of heavy armor and very limited use of artillery on behalf of ISIS, how is it that after almost four months, the enemy is still able to re-enforce and re-supply its forces in Ramadi? What about the F16s delivered to Iraq a few months back- its my understanding that their pilots spent years in the U.S. learning to fly those birds. So why aren't they out there, bombing the hell out if ISIS in Ramadi and Fallujah? More training? I know that only four planes are being delivered at a time, but when the enemy has NO air resources and very limited anti-aircraft equipment, I would imagine that those F16s would be out there everyday. True, they will face the same obstacles as the allied air coalition, including unpredictable weather shifts and sandstorms, so maybe they are out there, doing as much as mother nature will allow. I hope so. At the end of the day, I don't see how the Abadi Administration can survive a failure of this magnitude. A crippled government may be the smallest problem, though, as ISIS appears to be ready in a moments notice, to jump back on the offensive.
Over the past few weeks, we've scoured news sources coming from Iraq, trying to get an accurate perspective on the offensive in Anbar Province that the Iraqi Security Forces' (ISF) launched in May. The offensive operation, which included a simultaneous attack on ISIS-held Fallujah by the Shi'a militias/Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), had been planned to the smallest detail and included the training and equipment to deal with remote detonation explosives, booby-traps and urban warfare. The last few days of May slipped away, then June. In July, the Iraqi government started hinting that progress was being made, and that bit-by-bit, landmarks on the outskirts of the two cities had been secured. In July, the government responded to questions about the slow pace of the offensive by reminding the media that the ISF wasn't singularly tasked with removing ISIS from Ramadi; the ISF was also responsible for locating and removing/defusing all the explosives and booby traps being left by ISIS to greet the returning residents of Ramadi. The Iraqi government added that all the lessons learned from the last ISIS occupation of Ramadi were being considered in the staging of the current offensive. That explanation sure sounded good to me, especially when the Iraqi government also took the time to thank the coalition air campaign for its accurate and decidedly helpful bombing sorties. As August started to roll by, I was distracted by ISIS attacks in Diyala Province and the concerns regarding Baiji and Haditha. Then the government announced its reform agenda, which immediately pushed Ramadi from the front page, and temporarily from my mind. So we've waded through the reform issue, knowing as we did beforehand that Nouri al-Maliki would call in every marker owed to him to fight off this assault on his power base. Now that the militias have cast their lot with Maliki, the political battle-lines are drawn. But with the militias in the mix, we may end up seeing more violence on the streets of Basra than we are seeing on the streets of Ramadi.
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's bold moves to reform the Iraqi political system will play out as a backdrop to developments in Anbar. The Iraqi government's most immediate concern must be the growing impression that ISIS has not only fought off the Anbar offensive, but has started harassing the outlying villages around Baghdad as they had done before. Iraqi Major General Qasim al-Mohammadi, the head of Anbar Operations Command, is quick with assurances that the offensive is still on track, and that it takes time to clear out every housing cluster, every shop, and every abandoned structure, taking care to remove all unexploded ordinance. The fact that we've heard this line before doesn't make it any less accurate. From the beginning, our sources stressed that the Iraqi operational plan was built on lessons learned from previous encounters with ISIS. Also, the Iraqi Army had a serious morale problem that had to be addressed before the Anbar operation. One of the most frequent complaints was that officers showed indifference to the lives of the frontline troops. The training modules for the Iraqi Army, including officers, now address that issue. The slow rate of advance could be a reflection of Iraqi officers being more careful when putting troops in danger. But Major General al-Mohammadi also expressed frustration with the allied air campaign. He was very clear, as he was interviewed from his hospital bad after surviving a suicide bomb attack, that the allied air resources are stretched too thin, that there are too many competing targets. The Pentagon was quick to deny this claim, pointing out that the U.S. spends roughly ten million dollars everyday on the allied air campaign, and that over the last year, coalition warplanes have carried out over four thousand airstrikes in Iraq.
If history is any indication, then bad news is just around the corner. Normally, when fingers get pointed, accountability is a no-show, and vital questions remain unanswered, then something is about to fall apart. We were surprised to learn from the linked Washington Post article that ISIS maintains contact between its Fallujah and Ramadi cells, through the continued existence of a well-known road. Why hasn't this road been obliterated by airstrikes? How is it, that after months of news releases from not only the Iraqi government but on occasion by the Pentagon, pointing out the growing encirclement of ISIS units in Ramadi and Fallujah, that we now learn that ISIS forces in Ramadi and Fallujah are not isolated and are actually in regular contact with each other. Given the ground resources poured into this operation, and the complete lack of heavy armor and very limited use of artillery on behalf of ISIS, how is it that after almost four months, the enemy is still able to re-enforce and re-supply its forces in Ramadi? What about the F16s delivered to Iraq a few months back- its my understanding that their pilots spent years in the U.S. learning to fly those birds. So why aren't they out there, bombing the hell out if ISIS in Ramadi and Fallujah? More training? I know that only four planes are being delivered at a time, but when the enemy has NO air resources and very limited anti-aircraft equipment, I would imagine that those F16s would be out there everyday. True, they will face the same obstacles as the allied air coalition, including unpredictable weather shifts and sandstorms, so maybe they are out there, doing as much as mother nature will allow. I hope so. At the end of the day, I don't see how the Abadi Administration can survive a failure of this magnitude. A crippled government may be the smallest problem, though, as ISIS appears to be ready in a moments notice, to jump back on the offensive.
Wednesday, July 8, 2015
Is Hamas working with ISIS in Sinai?
Link: A. Is Hamas working with ISIS?
B. Developments in Sinai.
The Islamic State has a new name, folks. First, we struggled with ISIS; then we were challenged with "The Islamic State for the Creation of a Caliphate in the Levant", which, I guess, could become "ISCOCIL". Thank goodness someone had better sense. As for the new name on the scene, it has been selected to identify the nascent establishment of an armed element of the Islamic State that has been active in the Sinai region, and its name is "Wilayat Sinai". I'm no Arabic scholar, but the name "Wilayat" reminds me of "Vilayet", a term used to describe communities in the Ottoman Empire. My superior skills of deduction tell me that "Wilayat Sinai" identifies what the Islamic State has decided is a part of its future Caliphate. When they organize an armed group for a part of Jordan, it may be named, "Wilayat Amman". This new group located in north Sinai, traditional home of Hamas, introduced itself with a bang last week, by attacking an Egyptian Army checkpoint and killing all the soldiers on duty. The attack was coordinated to coincide with vehicle/suicide attacks on other Egyptian military targets, but things didn't go exactly as planned. The Egyptians acquitted themselves admirably and gave hell to the Wilayat Sinai fighters. Interestingly enough, this action took place under the noses of the U.S. military, which currently has a presence in Sinai. Task Force Sinai, a regiment-sized U.S. Army contribution to the Multinational Force and Observers, the U.N. peacekeeping organization in pace in Sinai since 1982. Aside from the Explosives Ordinance Disposal Unit, what exactly are these U.S. troops doing in Sinai?
When I think of Sinai, I think of that large land-mass that separate Egypt and Israel. When I was a child, I used to imagine the plight of the poor Israelites, crossing the Sinai desert, with Moses at the lead, to escape Pharaoh and slavery. The Sinai has been the location of a number of recent terrorist attacks against Egyptian soldiers and police. Last week, the ISIS-baby Wilayat Sinai got in on the act. The attacks against the Egyptian military were obviously a probing operation, to test the reaction time and effectiveness of the Egyptian contingent. The Pentagon has estimated that the Islamic State has roughly 200 fighters in north Sinai. We estimate the number to be closer to 500, but this includes new recruits, some of whom were probably present in last week's attacks, and gained experience through one helluva baptism of fire. We know that ISIS is spreading, and has established branches as far away as Nigeria. Yesterday Barrack Obama publicly announced that ISIS was on is heels. This guy really has Chutzpah. Only a few years ago, he described ISIS as being a "JV" (junior varsity) organization. They now control most of Syria and Iraq. He's a keeper, that's for sure. We can only imagine how Israel is digesting this recent news of ISIS presenting itself so near Israel's southern border. ISIS in the north, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and now ISIS in the south. I have a degree in Geography, so when I say that Israel is looking a bit "boxed in", you can take it to the bank.
I wasn't so much shocked about the coming-out party for Wilayat Sinai as I was the rumors of cooperation between the Islamic State and Hamas. I would have thought that ideologically, there would be some problems with this relationship, not to mention that Hamas considers itself the sage of terrorist activity, with ISIS being the snot-nosed upstart. But it does appear as if some level of cooperation has taken place, which really complicates an already muddy picture. For the moment, though, my concern is with Task Force Sinai. Again, I'm really confused about the marching order for these young men and women. Are they armed? Do they patrol? If they're peacekeepers, are they under the command of a foreigner? It wasn't so long ago that Hamas had militarized Gaza, and turned schools and hospitals into missile depositories, forcing the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to enter Gaza. This is a dangerous place, folks. What kind of peacekeeping are our soldiers doing? For now, lets forget about yesterday and deal with today and tomorrow. If ISIS has decided to extend its war for the Caliphate to the Sinai, I demand that our troops be armed all the time, with orders to defend themselves as appropriate to any self-defense situation. If the Administration is going to insist that our troops be unarmed, then its time to pull back our soldiers and replace them with diplomats. That would be there function after all, n'est pas?
B. Developments in Sinai.
The Islamic State has a new name, folks. First, we struggled with ISIS; then we were challenged with "The Islamic State for the Creation of a Caliphate in the Levant", which, I guess, could become "ISCOCIL". Thank goodness someone had better sense. As for the new name on the scene, it has been selected to identify the nascent establishment of an armed element of the Islamic State that has been active in the Sinai region, and its name is "Wilayat Sinai". I'm no Arabic scholar, but the name "Wilayat" reminds me of "Vilayet", a term used to describe communities in the Ottoman Empire. My superior skills of deduction tell me that "Wilayat Sinai" identifies what the Islamic State has decided is a part of its future Caliphate. When they organize an armed group for a part of Jordan, it may be named, "Wilayat Amman". This new group located in north Sinai, traditional home of Hamas, introduced itself with a bang last week, by attacking an Egyptian Army checkpoint and killing all the soldiers on duty. The attack was coordinated to coincide with vehicle/suicide attacks on other Egyptian military targets, but things didn't go exactly as planned. The Egyptians acquitted themselves admirably and gave hell to the Wilayat Sinai fighters. Interestingly enough, this action took place under the noses of the U.S. military, which currently has a presence in Sinai. Task Force Sinai, a regiment-sized U.S. Army contribution to the Multinational Force and Observers, the U.N. peacekeeping organization in pace in Sinai since 1982. Aside from the Explosives Ordinance Disposal Unit, what exactly are these U.S. troops doing in Sinai?
When I think of Sinai, I think of that large land-mass that separate Egypt and Israel. When I was a child, I used to imagine the plight of the poor Israelites, crossing the Sinai desert, with Moses at the lead, to escape Pharaoh and slavery. The Sinai has been the location of a number of recent terrorist attacks against Egyptian soldiers and police. Last week, the ISIS-baby Wilayat Sinai got in on the act. The attacks against the Egyptian military were obviously a probing operation, to test the reaction time and effectiveness of the Egyptian contingent. The Pentagon has estimated that the Islamic State has roughly 200 fighters in north Sinai. We estimate the number to be closer to 500, but this includes new recruits, some of whom were probably present in last week's attacks, and gained experience through one helluva baptism of fire. We know that ISIS is spreading, and has established branches as far away as Nigeria. Yesterday Barrack Obama publicly announced that ISIS was on is heels. This guy really has Chutzpah. Only a few years ago, he described ISIS as being a "JV" (junior varsity) organization. They now control most of Syria and Iraq. He's a keeper, that's for sure. We can only imagine how Israel is digesting this recent news of ISIS presenting itself so near Israel's southern border. ISIS in the north, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and now ISIS in the south. I have a degree in Geography, so when I say that Israel is looking a bit "boxed in", you can take it to the bank.
I wasn't so much shocked about the coming-out party for Wilayat Sinai as I was the rumors of cooperation between the Islamic State and Hamas. I would have thought that ideologically, there would be some problems with this relationship, not to mention that Hamas considers itself the sage of terrorist activity, with ISIS being the snot-nosed upstart. But it does appear as if some level of cooperation has taken place, which really complicates an already muddy picture. For the moment, though, my concern is with Task Force Sinai. Again, I'm really confused about the marching order for these young men and women. Are they armed? Do they patrol? If they're peacekeepers, are they under the command of a foreigner? It wasn't so long ago that Hamas had militarized Gaza, and turned schools and hospitals into missile depositories, forcing the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to enter Gaza. This is a dangerous place, folks. What kind of peacekeeping are our soldiers doing? For now, lets forget about yesterday and deal with today and tomorrow. If ISIS has decided to extend its war for the Caliphate to the Sinai, I demand that our troops be armed all the time, with orders to defend themselves as appropriate to any self-defense situation. If the Administration is going to insist that our troops be unarmed, then its time to pull back our soldiers and replace them with diplomats. That would be there function after all, n'est pas?
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
ISIS Captures a Key Syrian Air Base
Link: ISIS Captured a Key Syrian Air Base
This particular engagement between ISIL and regular Syrian Army and Air Force elements should be of concern to The Pentagon. ISIL continues to expand its arsenal of modern weaponry, and has a budding air capability that includes the use of drones and aircraft. Although ISIL is in possession of a number of MIG 21 fighters (and possibly some newer models), it is still unclear what they were able to take from the Iraqi Air Force Base that was overrun during last month's darkest days for the Iraqi military. Is ISIL in possession of Blackhawk helicopters? Probably not, but if it was in the Iraqi arsenal pre-July, anything is possible. But the discussion of MIGS and Blackhawks is a bit sensationalized. The real concern at this time is if ISIL is able to create an air wing exclusively for smuggling weapons, ammunition, equipment, and people. Analysts acknowledge that ISIL is in possession of advanced artillery, MANPADS, rebuilt T-72 and T-69 tanks, and a variety of other new or relatively new equipment (most of this equipment picked up off the desert floor in and around Tikrit as it was deserted by the Iraqi Army last month). Its true that ISIL will have difficulty taking full advantage of these new resources. ISIL is now in possession of equipment that it does not have the expertise to use. I would expect a full-scale recruitment operation focused on former UK and US servicemen is underway. The idea is to locate disenchanted and frustrated recently retired (honorably or not) servicemen who have the training in this equipment. It shouldn't be too difficult in the UK, where it appears ISIL has already had success in setting up a clandestine recruitment element (most likely based out of one or more of the London-area mosques). As we have seen from Austrian news reports, the number of willing European-based jihadists (many times born in Europe), continues to grow. I have to believe the same event is taking place in the United States. We can only hope that Federal Law Enforcement is on top of this internal domestic threat.
If ISIL creates an airborne element (evidence suggests they already have), it will substantially increase its ability to resupply itself. This is very important when you consider the variety of types of weaponry ISIL utilizes. Before the conflict exploded into Northern Iraq, ISIL was known to rely on mostly former Syrian military equipment (read Russian-made), including the ubiquitous AK-47. It will be interesting to see exactly how ISIL makes use of the recent haul of weaponry of US manufacture, that the Iraqi Army left in pristine condition on the intended battlefield outside Tikrit. Fortunately, we have yet to see ISIL utilizing any surface-to-air weaponry, at least not successfully. But it is only a matter of time. And the expansion of ISIL's ability to access arms and ammunition through the use of an air element, will only make it more difficult to cut off ISIL from the support mechanisms it needs to keep its armies supplied.
This particular engagement between ISIL and regular Syrian Army and Air Force elements should be of concern to The Pentagon. ISIL continues to expand its arsenal of modern weaponry, and has a budding air capability that includes the use of drones and aircraft. Although ISIL is in possession of a number of MIG 21 fighters (and possibly some newer models), it is still unclear what they were able to take from the Iraqi Air Force Base that was overrun during last month's darkest days for the Iraqi military. Is ISIL in possession of Blackhawk helicopters? Probably not, but if it was in the Iraqi arsenal pre-July, anything is possible. But the discussion of MIGS and Blackhawks is a bit sensationalized. The real concern at this time is if ISIL is able to create an air wing exclusively for smuggling weapons, ammunition, equipment, and people. Analysts acknowledge that ISIL is in possession of advanced artillery, MANPADS, rebuilt T-72 and T-69 tanks, and a variety of other new or relatively new equipment (most of this equipment picked up off the desert floor in and around Tikrit as it was deserted by the Iraqi Army last month). Its true that ISIL will have difficulty taking full advantage of these new resources. ISIL is now in possession of equipment that it does not have the expertise to use. I would expect a full-scale recruitment operation focused on former UK and US servicemen is underway. The idea is to locate disenchanted and frustrated recently retired (honorably or not) servicemen who have the training in this equipment. It shouldn't be too difficult in the UK, where it appears ISIL has already had success in setting up a clandestine recruitment element (most likely based out of one or more of the London-area mosques). As we have seen from Austrian news reports, the number of willing European-based jihadists (many times born in Europe), continues to grow. I have to believe the same event is taking place in the United States. We can only hope that Federal Law Enforcement is on top of this internal domestic threat.
If ISIL creates an airborne element (evidence suggests they already have), it will substantially increase its ability to resupply itself. This is very important when you consider the variety of types of weaponry ISIL utilizes. Before the conflict exploded into Northern Iraq, ISIL was known to rely on mostly former Syrian military equipment (read Russian-made), including the ubiquitous AK-47. It will be interesting to see exactly how ISIL makes use of the recent haul of weaponry of US manufacture, that the Iraqi Army left in pristine condition on the intended battlefield outside Tikrit. Fortunately, we have yet to see ISIL utilizing any surface-to-air weaponry, at least not successfully. But it is only a matter of time. And the expansion of ISIL's ability to access arms and ammunition through the use of an air element, will only make it more difficult to cut off ISIL from the support mechanisms it needs to keep its armies supplied.
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