In Nigeria, The Establishment Takes A Hit; Is Real Change On The Way?

Links:  A. In Nigeria, Opposition Candidate wins the Presidency.
            B. Petroleum Industry in Nigeria.

Until just recently, nine to eleven percent of all oil imported by the United States originated in Nigeria.  For a variety a reasons, the figure has been reduced to roughly five percent.

Frankly, both numbers were a bit of surprise to me.  I assumed that the Brits and the French would have sewed up all Nigerians contracts early on, but I've learned that U.S. oil companies can be competitive just about anywhere.  As for Nigeria, I'm glad that the Nigerian people are in a position to benefit from the valuable commodity on which they sit (or that waits offshore).  Over the past sixty years, Nigeria has been one of those African countries that, regardless of the political party or brand of leadership, just could not get their house in order.  Arguably more than any other large African nation, Nigeria has been decimated by corruption.  Nigeria is home to 174 million people.  Providing a stable environment for the average citizen to better themselves becomes all the more difficult with a high population and endemic corruption.  Because of its geographic location, Nigeria should have no trouble growing enough food to feed itself, but since the late 1950's, imports have always included foodstuffs.  The first oil well started pumping in 1958, and the oil industry has had a decidedly negative impact on the agricultural sector.  The increase in wealth was partially responsible for a dramatic rise in population, which made it impossible for the Nigerian agricultural sector to produce enough to feed the Nigerian people.  But we all know that petroleum brings in much more money than agriculture, so who cares, right?  One way or another, everyone in Nigeria will care.....when the oil dries up.  If it ever does.

On a more positive note, most analysts believed that the incumbent, president Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), would win the March 28 election in Nigeria.  Although the party was open to any number of candidates who met the criteria, it was apparent early on that the race would be decided between either Jonathan, or former General and Junta leader, All Progressive's Congress (APC) candidate Muhammadu Buhari.  It was easy to understand why the odds maker's were in Jonathan's corner.  The PDP had mobilized all politically appointed persons in different branches of the Federal Government to either deliver contributions or votes.  Jonathan is widely believed to have been instrumental in the negotiations that ended the conflict with the Niger Delta militants, which once successfully concluded, has allowed Nigeria to finally start taking full advantage of its oil.  And although Jonathan was criticized for the handling of the Boko Haram crisis, in the weeks leading up to the election, the Nigerian Military (with substantial assistance from Chad, Benin, Niger and Cameroon) delivered a string a decisive, strategic defeats to Boko Haram.  The fact that Buhari is a Muslim also encouraged Jonathan supporters into believing that the independent and undecided voters would trend towards Jonathan.  In the end, it wasn't really that close.  Buhari outpolled Jonathan by some 2.7 million votes, and the APC went from 41 seats in the Senate to 64, while the PDP dropped from 64 to 45 seats.  Jonathan faired best in the southern half of Nigeria, particularly in the south south-central part of Nigeria around Port Harcourt and the Niger Delta.  Buhari was strongest in the north and also in the suburbs of Lagos and Abuja.  Enough analysis of the voting; what does this change in governments mean for the average Nigerian?

At least for the near future, don't expect any major developments.  This is not Buhari's first time at the rodeo, as the old saying goes.  He was the leader of a military junta that

President Elect Muhammadu Buhari    
Source: Chatham House (via Wikipedia)

governed Nigeria from 1983 to 1985.  He has the reputation of being a thoughtful, fair man who will fill his cabinet with competent, experienced, and well-educated officials.  His military background, and his expression of continued funding and support for the current operations against Boko Haram, have received a positive reaction.  All of these factors point to the potential success of a Buhari Administration.  But Nigeria is burdened with chronic unemployment and a dangerously high level of poverty.  As some of the recent media investigations have highlighted, corruption is still a major drain on resources and confidence.  And the average Nigerian remains confused about the impact and value of the petroleum industry.  Surprisingly, Nigeria still imports gasoline.  The communities in and around Port Harcourt appear to have benefitted nicely since the end of the trouble with the Niger Delta militants.  Many Nigerians, especially in the poorer north, believe that certain areas of the country have directly benefitted from the largesse of the petroleum industry, while the rest of Nigeria is left out.  During the March 28 election, it is believed that a high percentage of unemployed young Nigerians supported Buhari, who actively courted the economically-burdened classes with speeches about "equality" and "spending oil money on the poor".

President Goodluck Jonathan took a huge step in the right direction when he announced, relatively early by Nigerian standards, that Muhammadu Buhari and the APC had won the election.  Any hesitation on Jonathan's part would probably have brought Buhari supporters into the streets of Lagos.  The decision made by Jonathan to choose a peaceful transition over another contested election, demonstrates that Nigeria is in the midst of a growing spurt.  The recent military success against Boko Haram is another example.  In most instances, growth spurts are accompanied by a certain amount of maturing, which would be so invaluable to Nigeria at this very moment.  I believe that the Nigerian people will avoid the dissent into the type of north-south, Muslim/Christian schism that almost destroyed Cote D'Ivoire during the last decade or so.  The election of Buhari, and his unexpected electoral strength in some Christian areas argue that Nigerians truly want change.  The biggest monster to be tackled, the beast that South Africa appears unwilling to destroy, is the rot of corruption that practically binds Nigerian civil service, the military, education, and politics together.  The end of the cycle of corruption would provide the Nigerian government with the type of resources it needs to strengthen the education system, build schools in rural areas, train teachers, and also get working on so many long-overdo infrastructure projects.  If Nigeria were to eliminate all corruption overnight, and the government focus on education, jobs, health care and infrastructure, in five years, Nigeria would breeze right past South Africa as the new leader of the African Continent.

Why should the West be concerned with the intentions of the Islamic State in Africa? (Part II)

Links: A. ISIS supporting Al-Shabaab in Africa?
           B. ISIS eager to recruit South Africans.

In Part II we will focus on the Islamic State (IS) in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The Muslim states of West Africa are vitally important, because they will discreetly provide financial and material support to Islamic extremist groups, while publicly disavowing any involvement or knowledge of these organizations.

Mauritania.  To start, Mauritania is a bit of a mystery.  The government gives the appearance of being deeply observant of all Islamic Laws and traditions.  At the same time, Mauritania has steered a very moderate course diplomatically, snuggling up to France in particular.  In truth, Mauritania is a lightly-populated country that consists almost exclusively of SAND.  Eventually, the engineers and researchers will find oil in Mauritania, mark my word.

Al-Qaeda in the Magreb.   Al-Qaeda remains active in West Africa, in Mali and Niger in particular.  In 2013, Al-Qaeda more-or-less surprised everyone by hopping the coat tails of a Tuareg insurrection in northern Mali.  The Tuaregs, who had made repeated complaints to the government in Bamako, were suffering from private French companies occupying oases and disturbing traditional Tuareg trading patterns.  The Tuaregs felt that they had no choice but to take up arms, at least long enough to attract the European press.  But before you can say, "Camel Fart", Al-Qaeda had hijacked the Tuaregs little rebellion.  The Tuaregs quickly faded away, but Al-Qaeda in the Magreb (AQM) meant business, attacking Malian military and government installations as far south as Timbuktu.  In steps the French, who roll up AQM in record time (not many prisoners taken, from what I understand).  In the Fall of 2014, AQM, taking advantage of a government focused exclusively on combating Ebola, popped back up in northern Mali.  And this time, they were better armed and willing to involve others.  AQM repeatedly crossed the border into Niger and conducted raids against simple villages, along with the usual attacks against government and civilian targets in Mali.  Again, the French military has arrived on the scene, and I expect and even more thorough accounting of AQM.  I can hear you now, asking, "why all this AQM bullshit when the post is supposed to be about the IS"?  The answer is simple; the post is about the IS.  Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are, for all practical purposes, the same organization.  They are both Sunni-based, violent, terrorist groups dedicated to the removal of infidels from their "Holy Land".  They communicate with each other, they assist one another, and they play-up the western media's insistence on separating the two. As always, this is only my opinion.  Come see me in a year and remind me how wrong I was.

Al-Shabaab.  One fact that is not debatable is that the IS was born into the Al-Qaeda family.  In its former life, it was known as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq".  After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as the leader of the organization, and a new name, "the Islamic State in the Sham" (ISIS) was chosen.  Folks, I'm leaving out all sorts of important background to the genesis of IS, but this post has to stay within reasonable limits.  Al-Baghdadi really began to make the IS about himself, and let it be known to Al-Qaeda head Ayman Al-Zawahiri, that IS was able to function on its own.  Now this is as close to a complete rift with Al-Qaeda as ever occurred.  Zawahiri didn't have much to bitch about because the IS was kicking ass and taking names all over Iraq and Syria.  More recently, as the organization stretches its legs a bit, relationships have been established with like-minded Sunni extremist groups around the world, including Africa.  Al-Shabaab, that nasty bunch of turds that tried to turn Somalia into an Islamic State ruled by Islamic Courts (sounds wonderful, doesn't it?), have established themselves in the townships of Kenya, which are ripe recruitment areas.  Social Media is the master at bringing people together, and the IS and Al-Shabaab have been expressing support for one another for some time.  These two groups need each other.  Al-Shabaab needs the organizational skills, the discipline, and the funding of the IS, and the IS needs the geographic reach, and the potential recruitment opportunities available to Al-Shabaab.  They are both Sunni based, therefore there will be no trouble finding ideological (read: idiot-logical) common ground.  Al-Shabaab has established a presence as far south as South Africa and as far west as Namibia.

Boko Haram.  Ehen the Nigerian based terrorist organization, "Boko Haram", announced its support for the IS, the news was treated as a truly important development.  During the same week, the combined military forces of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Benin inflicted defeat after defeat on Boko Haram, who was now only in control of four northern communities (from twenty just the week before).  It was no surprise that Boko Haram (BH) wanted to change the headline, and the press obliged.  The poor Nigerian Army; after months of getting raked over the coals by the domestic and international press, they finally have a very successful strong of victories, and they get upstaged by BH's announcement of love for the IS.  The truth is, even though BH has very recently received a black eye and a bloody nose, this organization is built similar to the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, and it is more than able to retreat into the jungle and reconstitute itself.  I find BH to be the most dangerous terrorist group on the continent, and that includes north Africa.  Anyone engaged against BH needs to be familiar with its history, as BH is very loyal to its founding principles and the accompanying religious ideology.  The organization was originally established in support of providing Islamic education in northern Nigerian schools.  At the time, there was a need for a bit of a "siege mentality", as the Islamic community in Nigeria had many opponents.  Through concentration of resources and discipline, the Islamic community in northern Nigeria was able to effectively establish a network of Islamic schools.  As is often the case, this well-meaning effort got out of hand.  BH quickly morphed into a organization that allowed no disagreement and enforced the strictest of Islamic codes.  Instead of living peacefully with the Christian community, BH made every effort to either drive them off or convert their children.  When it became apparent that the Nigerian authorities were either unwilling or unable to respond, BH began large-scale forced conversions.  Instead of focusing on education, BH became a para-military organization, bent on proselytizing extremist Islam.  At the zenith of its reach, BH was smart enough to reach out to other like-minded organizations, which will provide a lifeline, if the Nigerian military is successful in forcing BH out of Nigeria.  BH is present in Ghana, in Cote d'Ivoire, and in the Cameroon.  Many of his soldiers are "brainwashed" teens, some not much older than ten, eleven years of age.  In many cases, these young fighters are the most dedicated.  I won't mention the fate of the young girls that are randomly kidnapped.  Suffice to say that the lucky ones are forced into sometimes plural marriages with men usually many years older.

Because of the growing population rate in sub-Saharan Africa, the pressure on the various national economies will only increase.  At the moment, even the most optimistic economies like South Africa, Nigeria, Namibia, Botswana, Gabon and Ghana, have unemployment rates for post-high school males as high as forty percent.  This group of unemployed, bored, many times hungry, unable to afford university fees, young men are the perfect targets for the IS.  Since the Islamic faith has done such an outstanding job introducing Islam to poorer African communities, many of these young men are already halfway home.        

Al-Qaeda In Africa

Link: A. Al-Qaeda Presence In African Countries


(Today's post is the first in a four-part series to begin 2015.  This series will discuss the current state of affairs for the various Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups around the globe.  The next in the series will be the Middle East, followed by Southeast Asia, and concluding with Europe/United States.  Somewhere along the line I will throw out a few comments about Al-Qaeda's presence in Latin America, especially as it relates to drug trafficking, smuggling and the tri-borders region.)

When I originally googled "Al-Qaeda" and "Africa", I expected to find a Wikipedia page full of useful dates and details.  Have a look at the link so you can share in my disappointment. No matter; Al-Qaeda is so active at present that a review of any international news provider should bear fruit.  Surprisingly, the link from Wikipedia doesn't even identify Mali as a location of interest, and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has been stirring the pot in the north of the country for a few years now.  But enough criticism of Wikipedia.  It is an invaluable resource that I would hate to lose, so follow my example and give them a few dollars whenever they start one of their fund-raising drives.  Back to Al-Qaeda and Africa.

Personally, the U.S. Embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 were the first time that I connected the terrorist group Al-Qaeda to the African continent.  I was aware of the organization, mainly because I was already employed for an Intelligence Agency, and I was working in a counter-terrorist branch at the time.  Having spent some time in Kenya and Tanzania, I was immediately useful, as street maps were spread out over desks and rolled-up, dusty maps were pulled out from behind cabinets.  Interestingly enough, I can't remember a time when the group Al-Qaeda was not synonymous with Osama bin-Laden.  Even then in the early years pre-9/11, everyone was already referring to the two as inseparable evils, and with good reason.  Bin-Laden carried his organization on his back, figuratively and literally.  He had spent some time in Afghanistan and trained in the Sudan and Yemen.  I can't be sure but I believe the planning for 9/11 was already in place when the embassy bombings occurred.  I believe another attack was intended, one involving multiple airliners that were to be hijacked out of Manila, and these three attacks (Kenya, NYC, Manila) were going to deliver a message to the West.  The third operation never got off the ground, thank goodness.

Since the 1980s, Al-Qaeda has been active in Africa.  When Somalia descended into post Siad-Barre hell, Al-Qaeda positioned itself to become an integral part of the conservative and extremist Islamic Courts Union, which was the de facto government in Moqdishu for a while.  Once the African Union and the Ethiopian Army removed the Courts from Somalia, they found a comfy exile in Eritrea.  I just don't understand the government of Eritrea, why they would want to announce to the world that they are friendly with Al-Qaeda.  Obviously this is just another case of, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", and the Eritreans despise the Ethiopians with a venom that is hard to match.  Presently, with Puntland trying to sort itself out, and the Somali government in Moqdishu just trying to get the power back on, the bad guys, who have morphed from the "Islamic Courts Union", to "Al-Shabaab", are doing what they can to cause trouble in Kenya.  Don't be fooled; Al-Shabaab is an unpolished, illiterate, ill-trained version of Al-Qaeda, and they understand the importance of establishing a presence in Kenya.  The unemployment rate in Kenya is so high, I don't think the Kenyan government bothers to log it anymore.  Most young men, at an age when they are supposed to be the most physically productive, are playing soccer in the townships and smoking hash behind the shabeen. The first time I ever saw someone wearing an Osama bin-Laden t-shirt was in Kibera, the huge township that feeds and feeds off of Nairobi.  They are hungry in Mombasa as well, and in Nakuru and Kisumu.  Al-Qaeda has always intended on taking advantage of the squalor and hopelessness of the third world, to recruit and spread its anti-west, anti-glutton message.  But for some reason they have never really succeeded in appealing to the masses.  But Africa, and Kenya in particular, give them an ideal opportunity.  For Al-Qaeda, Somalia is over.  The question is, to relocate the operatives and resources to Sudan and Yemen (and Eritrea), or to make a real push in Kenya. 

In west Africa, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has caused quite a bit of heartburn.  A few years back in Mali, the Tuaregs attempted a bit of a revolution.  These usually non-confrontational, private nomads were having their traditional way of life negatively impacted by the activities of various French oil and mineral exploratory operations.  They complained to the government in Bamako, but the Euro talks, and the Camel walks, so to speak.  So the Tuaregs started a bit of a rebellion.  Almost from the start it was hijacked by AQIM, and before long, the Tuaregs had been basically muscled out of the conflict altogether.  AQIM proved too much for the Malian Army, so Mother France was called, and to make a boring story short, the French military sorted out AQIM in short-order.  In the summer of 2014, when all of west Africa was focused on the anti-Ebola campaign, AQIM popped up again, and this time began attacking targets in Niger.  Fortunately the French military always seems to be available, and it is yet to be determined if AQIM will acquit itself in a more positive way this time around.  Unfortunately, the French can only be in so many places at one time, and AQIM has a habit of attacking Malian military targets, separate from a French military presence.

Boko Haram has been described as "Al-Qaeda in Nigeria", which is not far from the truth.  Originally, Boko Haram was created as a method of educating and providing security for Muslim communities in northern Nigeria.  A change in leadership was instrumental in Boko Haram's evolution into an Islamic extremist group, and they have quickly silenced the Islamic opposition (what there was of it).  I have never considered Al-Qaeda to be overly religiously motivated, but they won't pass an opportunity to hijack a conservative Islamic movement, as they have demonstrated many times.  In reality, I don't think Al-Qaeda has any input into the actions of Boko Haram.  They make a bunch of noise and get a good deal of press, but until Boko Haram takes control of the Nigerian Oil Industry and starts pumping that oil to fill Al-Qaeda's coffers, I don't see the possibility of an Al-Qaeda initiative here (unless the U.S. and Nigerian security is lax and the embassy becomes a target of opportunity).

Africa can be a dangerous place for Americans.  Because of the ease in which a person can cross one border after another, the U.S. Diplomatic Security folks have to always be on their game.  Africa is useful to Al-Qaeda for three reasons: targets of opportunity, training, and recruitment.  We know about the first two, but just how much success have the bad guys had at recruiting operatives in Africa?  Up to now, I think it has been negligible.  But that could change this year.  Keep your eye on Kenya.      

Islamic State Expanding Into North Africa

Link: Islamic State Pushes Into North Africa

For decades, north Africa and the Sahel have always been Al-Qaeda territory, at least as far as butchers and beheaders are concerned.  But as the Islamic State (IS) continues to

exhibit a potent growth rate, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) had better make sure they've collected their dues this month;  the IS is the new extremist bad-boy club on the block, and they intend on co-opting everyone within range of a bullet.  In the link above, I paid particular attention to comments made by Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who believes that we should expect the IS to become more active in north Africa.  Joscelyn is a treasure trove of knowledge regarding events in the Near East, and his real-time analysis is always spot-on.  He is the main reason I am such a devotee of The Long War Journal (www.longwarjournal.org).

So the IS has decided to expand westward.  I'm assuming that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has his own version of Manifest Destiny.  The truth is, the ground is ripe for seeding, especially in the Sudan and Libya.  But lets start in Egypt.  The IS has a variety of scapegoats to drag out in this country, including the traditional whipping boy: the Coptic Christians.  For the life of me I can't fathom how there can be any Christians left in Egypt, let alone Coptic Christians.  They can jump on the "anti-military" bandwagon, but I think that bus is full.  Personally, I don't see the IS finding a receptive audience in Egypt.  I think Morsi was as a religious of a leader as the Egyptian people would like.  Egypt is a country with a modern communications infrastructure.  The people understand the difference between progress and trading in the used Renault for a camel.  I believe the people of Egypt, the vocal young populace in particular, want both a democratic system of government and economic progress.  The IS stands for neither.  On the other hand, Libya is the perfect breeding ground for giant fleas (like the folks we refer to as the IS).  When authority has broken down, and I mean packed up and completely left town, people will look to just about anyone for leadership.  The IS has recently become the governing body for the town of Darna. What the hell is Darna?  It's a start, that's what it is; and the Islamic State will take measures in Darna that will be observed by other communities.  We all know that the Islamic State is well-funded.  All they have to do is feed the people of Darna, maybe get the power turned back on, and keep the muggers and rapists off the streets (and back in the IS camp where they belong).  The IS has used this recipe to co-opt communities in Syria and Iraq, and the formula will work just fine in Libya.  What absolutely amazes me is that western companies are still able to keep their petroleum operations functioning.  I imagine that a huge amount of money is being paid to private security armies, but just how much longer are these operations going to be feasible?  And here comes the IS.  Let Mookie make a prediction.  In roughly six months or less, Libya is going to return to the headlines.  No one wants the IS to take possession of the petroleum set-ups in Libya anymore than the ones they fight for in Baiji, Iraq, where the battle continues on currently.

Let move south to the Sudan.  The government currently sitting in Khartoum would make great badminton partners for al-Baghdadi and his herd.  President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Court in the Hague, loves to send his minions on "Christian

slaughtering" expeditions.  The Sudan (force of habit...I say "the Sudan" and "the Cameroon" and a few other left-over examples of colonial bad manners) is no longer what it used to be.  We now have a South Sudan, but don't ask me who is President, or even the name of the capital city (Juba, maybe?).  I believe that the IS would find a warm welcome in Khartoum, as al-Bashir and al-Baghdadi seem to adhere to the same brand of extreme Islam.  I can't imagine that the IS would stretch its Caliphate map to include the Sudan, and al-Bashir would welcome any opportunity to stick his finger in the eye of the EU and the United States.  Khartoum would be an ideal staging ground for an IS expansion into Chad, Niger and Mali.  The people of Saharan Africa would probably welcome the IS, since no one else seems to give a damn about them.  Mali is already dealing with a re-emergence of AQIM (who, interestingly enough, keep stirring up shit in Niger).  With the west focused almost exclusively on Ebola, and AQIM a shadow of its former self, a bit of a vacuum does exist.  North of Boko Haram in Nigeria, west of Khartoum, and east of Mauritania is where the IS will find its most fertile recruitment locations.  Folks will look at the map and say, "Mookie, have you lost your mind?  The only thing east of Mauritania is the Sahara Desert!"  Believe it or not, people live in that desert.  But its the communities on the very periphery of the Sahara that cause me concern.  A strict form of Islam is enforced, which promotes reliance on family ties and inter-dependence.  In many ways, adherence to strict principles of Islam have helped many of these villages and communities survive.  Al Qaeda had no trouble taking route here, and I can't imagine that the IS will either.  The bunch of filthy rich investors with money in the gold and diamond mines of west Africa had better keep an eye on this potential problem.

Who's At The Door, Ebola or Al-Qaeda?

Links: A. French Troops Battle Terrorists In Northern Mali
           B. France Retaking Its Former Empire

You have to feel for the poor people of Mali.  The country is landlocked and would probably be a complete desert if it weren't for the Niger River.  Mali shares a border with Cote d'Ivoire

which, until recently, allowed Mali access to the second busiest port in West Africa (Dakar being first).  Unfortunately, in 2002 Cote d'Ivoire's turn came up on the African civil war Merry-Go-Round, which split the country between north and south and lasted until 2011.  The conflict has ended and Cote d'Ivoire has recovered in record time. The roads between Mali and Cote d'Ivoire are again full of trucks carrying goods between Bamako, Mali and the port of Abidjan; although, sadly the condition of the roads leaves a lot to be desired.  For roughly a decade Mali was solely dependent upon its road and rail (gulp!) links to the west: namely, Dakar, Senegal.  In 2012, Mali suffered through the Tuareg Rebellion.  The nomadic Tuareg people of northern Mali (Tuaregs are also present in southern Algeria and northern Niger), revolted in reaction to feeling marginalized by the government in Bamako and the mining activity, which they claimed damaged pastoral grazing lands.  It didn't take long for the world's favorite parasite, Al-Qaeda (in this incarnation, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb - AQIM), to join the rebellion alongside the Tuaregs.  Not surprisingly, AQIM quickly pushed the well-meaning Tuareg aside and began to threaten other interests (read: French) further south (which included the occupation of Tombouctou).  The French Army arrived in January 2013 and one month later the issue was resolved.  The French military has always come to a fight ready to win both quickly and completely.  I remember when the United States military carried the same reputation. 

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita,
President of Mali

The Tuareg Rebellion cost Malian President Amadou Toure his job; the transitional military government kept its word and respectably clean elections were held in August 2013.  Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was sworn in on September 4, and he has done a superb job to date.  The Ebola outbreak in Guinea and Liberia brought the attention of the world to west Africa.  Mali has a long border with both Guinea and Liberia, and given the state of Mali's infrastructure (and low international expectations), great concern was expressed that Mali would also suffer an outbreak.  President Keita put national sensitivities aside and asked the United States and Europe to send medical experts.  The International Red Cross (IRC) was already in place, and all necessary authority and support was given by the Malian Ministry of Health to facilitate the education and preparation of both cities and rural communities.  Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) arrived, as did the Center for Disease Control from Atlanta and the World Health Organization (WHO).  Mali already had capable, modern hospitals in Bamako and Sikasso, and the Center for Tuberculosis and AIDS Research (SEFERO).  Screening facilities and Isolation Units were set up at all border crossings and Ports of Entry.  Heeding the request made by President Obama, Mali has kept open its border posts with Liberia and Guinea (despite intense pressure put on President Keita from internal groups).  To date, Mali has registered only one positive case of Ebola, and that was the tragic instance of a now-deceased two-year old child from Guinea who was transported across the border by her grandmother after the death of her mother.  No doubt additional confirmed cases will occur, but all in all, Mali has set an example for other nations (not only third world) to follow when bordering a contagious viral outbreak.

Again, exhibiting a willingness to take advantage of every opportunity, AQIM has made its presence known again.  I've heard it said that after the nuclear apocalypse, the only things left alive will be cock roaches and Cher.  Well, lets add AQIM to the list.  These nasty, parasitic desert rats dug some deep tunnels to escape French and Malian justice, and now the resources of the government are tied up not only in combating the threat of Ebola, but also in trying to build a durable, functioning transportation network to support a growing economy.  Earlier in the year, the Chinese had come around, promising all sorts of goodies.  In fact, China and Mali had negotiated Chinese financial sponsorship of an $11 Billion new railway system to replace the existing rail to Dakar (built in 1884; last real servicing completed in 1924) and to build an entire new railway from Bamako to the port city of Conakry, Guinea.  Sadly, in the last few weeks the Chinese have started to hedge on their commitment, issuing a statement that discussions took place but no obligations were agreed upon.  Bullshit.  The Chinese economy has started to show signs of trouble, which would make reconsideration of expensive foreign projects only routine.  Eleven billion dollars is nothing to the Bank of China, but it could actually change the lives of 15 Million Malians.  What is my interest in this situation?  I love west Africa.  I'm half-French and I truly enjoy the Francophile community.  And everyone, who is willing to do their part, deserves an opportunity.