In Nigeria, The Establishment Takes A Hit; Is Real Change On The Way?

Links:  A. In Nigeria, Opposition Candidate wins the Presidency.
            B. Petroleum Industry in Nigeria.

Until just recently, nine to eleven percent of all oil imported by the United States originated in Nigeria.  For a variety a reasons, the figure has been reduced to roughly five percent.

Frankly, both numbers were a bit of surprise to me.  I assumed that the Brits and the French would have sewed up all Nigerians contracts early on, but I've learned that U.S. oil companies can be competitive just about anywhere.  As for Nigeria, I'm glad that the Nigerian people are in a position to benefit from the valuable commodity on which they sit (or that waits offshore).  Over the past sixty years, Nigeria has been one of those African countries that, regardless of the political party or brand of leadership, just could not get their house in order.  Arguably more than any other large African nation, Nigeria has been decimated by corruption.  Nigeria is home to 174 million people.  Providing a stable environment for the average citizen to better themselves becomes all the more difficult with a high population and endemic corruption.  Because of its geographic location, Nigeria should have no trouble growing enough food to feed itself, but since the late 1950's, imports have always included foodstuffs.  The first oil well started pumping in 1958, and the oil industry has had a decidedly negative impact on the agricultural sector.  The increase in wealth was partially responsible for a dramatic rise in population, which made it impossible for the Nigerian agricultural sector to produce enough to feed the Nigerian people.  But we all know that petroleum brings in much more money than agriculture, so who cares, right?  One way or another, everyone in Nigeria will care.....when the oil dries up.  If it ever does.

On a more positive note, most analysts believed that the incumbent, president Goodluck Jonathan of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), would win the March 28 election in Nigeria.  Although the party was open to any number of candidates who met the criteria, it was apparent early on that the race would be decided between either Jonathan, or former General and Junta leader, All Progressive's Congress (APC) candidate Muhammadu Buhari.  It was easy to understand why the odds maker's were in Jonathan's corner.  The PDP had mobilized all politically appointed persons in different branches of the Federal Government to either deliver contributions or votes.  Jonathan is widely believed to have been instrumental in the negotiations that ended the conflict with the Niger Delta militants, which once successfully concluded, has allowed Nigeria to finally start taking full advantage of its oil.  And although Jonathan was criticized for the handling of the Boko Haram crisis, in the weeks leading up to the election, the Nigerian Military (with substantial assistance from Chad, Benin, Niger and Cameroon) delivered a string a decisive, strategic defeats to Boko Haram.  The fact that Buhari is a Muslim also encouraged Jonathan supporters into believing that the independent and undecided voters would trend towards Jonathan.  In the end, it wasn't really that close.  Buhari outpolled Jonathan by some 2.7 million votes, and the APC went from 41 seats in the Senate to 64, while the PDP dropped from 64 to 45 seats.  Jonathan faired best in the southern half of Nigeria, particularly in the south south-central part of Nigeria around Port Harcourt and the Niger Delta.  Buhari was strongest in the north and also in the suburbs of Lagos and Abuja.  Enough analysis of the voting; what does this change in governments mean for the average Nigerian?

At least for the near future, don't expect any major developments.  This is not Buhari's first time at the rodeo, as the old saying goes.  He was the leader of a military junta that

President Elect Muhammadu Buhari    
Source: Chatham House (via Wikipedia)

governed Nigeria from 1983 to 1985.  He has the reputation of being a thoughtful, fair man who will fill his cabinet with competent, experienced, and well-educated officials.  His military background, and his expression of continued funding and support for the current operations against Boko Haram, have received a positive reaction.  All of these factors point to the potential success of a Buhari Administration.  But Nigeria is burdened with chronic unemployment and a dangerously high level of poverty.  As some of the recent media investigations have highlighted, corruption is still a major drain on resources and confidence.  And the average Nigerian remains confused about the impact and value of the petroleum industry.  Surprisingly, Nigeria still imports gasoline.  The communities in and around Port Harcourt appear to have benefitted nicely since the end of the trouble with the Niger Delta militants.  Many Nigerians, especially in the poorer north, believe that certain areas of the country have directly benefitted from the largesse of the petroleum industry, while the rest of Nigeria is left out.  During the March 28 election, it is believed that a high percentage of unemployed young Nigerians supported Buhari, who actively courted the economically-burdened classes with speeches about "equality" and "spending oil money on the poor".

President Goodluck Jonathan took a huge step in the right direction when he announced, relatively early by Nigerian standards, that Muhammadu Buhari and the APC had won the election.  Any hesitation on Jonathan's part would probably have brought Buhari supporters into the streets of Lagos.  The decision made by Jonathan to choose a peaceful transition over another contested election, demonstrates that Nigeria is in the midst of a growing spurt.  The recent military success against Boko Haram is another example.  In most instances, growth spurts are accompanied by a certain amount of maturing, which would be so invaluable to Nigeria at this very moment.  I believe that the Nigerian people will avoid the dissent into the type of north-south, Muslim/Christian schism that almost destroyed Cote D'Ivoire during the last decade or so.  The election of Buhari, and his unexpected electoral strength in some Christian areas argue that Nigerians truly want change.  The biggest monster to be tackled, the beast that South Africa appears unwilling to destroy, is the rot of corruption that practically binds Nigerian civil service, the military, education, and politics together.  The end of the cycle of corruption would provide the Nigerian government with the type of resources it needs to strengthen the education system, build schools in rural areas, train teachers, and also get working on so many long-overdo infrastructure projects.  If Nigeria were to eliminate all corruption overnight, and the government focus on education, jobs, health care and infrastructure, in five years, Nigeria would breeze right past South Africa as the new leader of the African Continent.

Islamic State Expanding Into North Africa

Link: Islamic State Pushes Into North Africa

For decades, north Africa and the Sahel have always been Al-Qaeda territory, at least as far as butchers and beheaders are concerned.  But as the Islamic State (IS) continues to

exhibit a potent growth rate, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) had better make sure they've collected their dues this month;  the IS is the new extremist bad-boy club on the block, and they intend on co-opting everyone within range of a bullet.  In the link above, I paid particular attention to comments made by Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who believes that we should expect the IS to become more active in north Africa.  Joscelyn is a treasure trove of knowledge regarding events in the Near East, and his real-time analysis is always spot-on.  He is the main reason I am such a devotee of The Long War Journal (www.longwarjournal.org).

So the IS has decided to expand westward.  I'm assuming that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has his own version of Manifest Destiny.  The truth is, the ground is ripe for seeding, especially in the Sudan and Libya.  But lets start in Egypt.  The IS has a variety of scapegoats to drag out in this country, including the traditional whipping boy: the Coptic Christians.  For the life of me I can't fathom how there can be any Christians left in Egypt, let alone Coptic Christians.  They can jump on the "anti-military" bandwagon, but I think that bus is full.  Personally, I don't see the IS finding a receptive audience in Egypt.  I think Morsi was as a religious of a leader as the Egyptian people would like.  Egypt is a country with a modern communications infrastructure.  The people understand the difference between progress and trading in the used Renault for a camel.  I believe the people of Egypt, the vocal young populace in particular, want both a democratic system of government and economic progress.  The IS stands for neither.  On the other hand, Libya is the perfect breeding ground for giant fleas (like the folks we refer to as the IS).  When authority has broken down, and I mean packed up and completely left town, people will look to just about anyone for leadership.  The IS has recently become the governing body for the town of Darna. What the hell is Darna?  It's a start, that's what it is; and the Islamic State will take measures in Darna that will be observed by other communities.  We all know that the Islamic State is well-funded.  All they have to do is feed the people of Darna, maybe get the power turned back on, and keep the muggers and rapists off the streets (and back in the IS camp where they belong).  The IS has used this recipe to co-opt communities in Syria and Iraq, and the formula will work just fine in Libya.  What absolutely amazes me is that western companies are still able to keep their petroleum operations functioning.  I imagine that a huge amount of money is being paid to private security armies, but just how much longer are these operations going to be feasible?  And here comes the IS.  Let Mookie make a prediction.  In roughly six months or less, Libya is going to return to the headlines.  No one wants the IS to take possession of the petroleum set-ups in Libya anymore than the ones they fight for in Baiji, Iraq, where the battle continues on currently.

Let move south to the Sudan.  The government currently sitting in Khartoum would make great badminton partners for al-Baghdadi and his herd.  President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Court in the Hague, loves to send his minions on "Christian

slaughtering" expeditions.  The Sudan (force of habit...I say "the Sudan" and "the Cameroon" and a few other left-over examples of colonial bad manners) is no longer what it used to be.  We now have a South Sudan, but don't ask me who is President, or even the name of the capital city (Juba, maybe?).  I believe that the IS would find a warm welcome in Khartoum, as al-Bashir and al-Baghdadi seem to adhere to the same brand of extreme Islam.  I can't imagine that the IS would stretch its Caliphate map to include the Sudan, and al-Bashir would welcome any opportunity to stick his finger in the eye of the EU and the United States.  Khartoum would be an ideal staging ground for an IS expansion into Chad, Niger and Mali.  The people of Saharan Africa would probably welcome the IS, since no one else seems to give a damn about them.  Mali is already dealing with a re-emergence of AQIM (who, interestingly enough, keep stirring up shit in Niger).  With the west focused almost exclusively on Ebola, and AQIM a shadow of its former self, a bit of a vacuum does exist.  North of Boko Haram in Nigeria, west of Khartoum, and east of Mauritania is where the IS will find its most fertile recruitment locations.  Folks will look at the map and say, "Mookie, have you lost your mind?  The only thing east of Mauritania is the Sahara Desert!"  Believe it or not, people live in that desert.  But its the communities on the very periphery of the Sahara that cause me concern.  A strict form of Islam is enforced, which promotes reliance on family ties and inter-dependence.  In many ways, adherence to strict principles of Islam have helped many of these villages and communities survive.  Al Qaeda had no trouble taking route here, and I can't imagine that the IS will either.  The bunch of filthy rich investors with money in the gold and diamond mines of west Africa had better keep an eye on this potential problem.