Why should the West be concerned with the intentions of the Islamic State in Africa? (Part II)

Links: A. ISIS supporting Al-Shabaab in Africa?
           B. ISIS eager to recruit South Africans.

In Part II we will focus on the Islamic State (IS) in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The Muslim states of West Africa are vitally important, because they will discreetly provide financial and material support to Islamic extremist groups, while publicly disavowing any involvement or knowledge of these organizations.

Mauritania.  To start, Mauritania is a bit of a mystery.  The government gives the appearance of being deeply observant of all Islamic Laws and traditions.  At the same time, Mauritania has steered a very moderate course diplomatically, snuggling up to France in particular.  In truth, Mauritania is a lightly-populated country that consists almost exclusively of SAND.  Eventually, the engineers and researchers will find oil in Mauritania, mark my word.

Al-Qaeda in the Magreb.   Al-Qaeda remains active in West Africa, in Mali and Niger in particular.  In 2013, Al-Qaeda more-or-less surprised everyone by hopping the coat tails of a Tuareg insurrection in northern Mali.  The Tuaregs, who had made repeated complaints to the government in Bamako, were suffering from private French companies occupying oases and disturbing traditional Tuareg trading patterns.  The Tuaregs felt that they had no choice but to take up arms, at least long enough to attract the European press.  But before you can say, "Camel Fart", Al-Qaeda had hijacked the Tuaregs little rebellion.  The Tuaregs quickly faded away, but Al-Qaeda in the Magreb (AQM) meant business, attacking Malian military and government installations as far south as Timbuktu.  In steps the French, who roll up AQM in record time (not many prisoners taken, from what I understand).  In the Fall of 2014, AQM, taking advantage of a government focused exclusively on combating Ebola, popped back up in northern Mali.  And this time, they were better armed and willing to involve others.  AQM repeatedly crossed the border into Niger and conducted raids against simple villages, along with the usual attacks against government and civilian targets in Mali.  Again, the French military has arrived on the scene, and I expect and even more thorough accounting of AQM.  I can hear you now, asking, "why all this AQM bullshit when the post is supposed to be about the IS"?  The answer is simple; the post is about the IS.  Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are, for all practical purposes, the same organization.  They are both Sunni-based, violent, terrorist groups dedicated to the removal of infidels from their "Holy Land".  They communicate with each other, they assist one another, and they play-up the western media's insistence on separating the two. As always, this is only my opinion.  Come see me in a year and remind me how wrong I was.

Al-Shabaab.  One fact that is not debatable is that the IS was born into the Al-Qaeda family.  In its former life, it was known as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq".  After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as the leader of the organization, and a new name, "the Islamic State in the Sham" (ISIS) was chosen.  Folks, I'm leaving out all sorts of important background to the genesis of IS, but this post has to stay within reasonable limits.  Al-Baghdadi really began to make the IS about himself, and let it be known to Al-Qaeda head Ayman Al-Zawahiri, that IS was able to function on its own.  Now this is as close to a complete rift with Al-Qaeda as ever occurred.  Zawahiri didn't have much to bitch about because the IS was kicking ass and taking names all over Iraq and Syria.  More recently, as the organization stretches its legs a bit, relationships have been established with like-minded Sunni extremist groups around the world, including Africa.  Al-Shabaab, that nasty bunch of turds that tried to turn Somalia into an Islamic State ruled by Islamic Courts (sounds wonderful, doesn't it?), have established themselves in the townships of Kenya, which are ripe recruitment areas.  Social Media is the master at bringing people together, and the IS and Al-Shabaab have been expressing support for one another for some time.  These two groups need each other.  Al-Shabaab needs the organizational skills, the discipline, and the funding of the IS, and the IS needs the geographic reach, and the potential recruitment opportunities available to Al-Shabaab.  They are both Sunni based, therefore there will be no trouble finding ideological (read: idiot-logical) common ground.  Al-Shabaab has established a presence as far south as South Africa and as far west as Namibia.

Boko Haram.  Ehen the Nigerian based terrorist organization, "Boko Haram", announced its support for the IS, the news was treated as a truly important development.  During the same week, the combined military forces of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Benin inflicted defeat after defeat on Boko Haram, who was now only in control of four northern communities (from twenty just the week before).  It was no surprise that Boko Haram (BH) wanted to change the headline, and the press obliged.  The poor Nigerian Army; after months of getting raked over the coals by the domestic and international press, they finally have a very successful strong of victories, and they get upstaged by BH's announcement of love for the IS.  The truth is, even though BH has very recently received a black eye and a bloody nose, this organization is built similar to the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, and it is more than able to retreat into the jungle and reconstitute itself.  I find BH to be the most dangerous terrorist group on the continent, and that includes north Africa.  Anyone engaged against BH needs to be familiar with its history, as BH is very loyal to its founding principles and the accompanying religious ideology.  The organization was originally established in support of providing Islamic education in northern Nigerian schools.  At the time, there was a need for a bit of a "siege mentality", as the Islamic community in Nigeria had many opponents.  Through concentration of resources and discipline, the Islamic community in northern Nigeria was able to effectively establish a network of Islamic schools.  As is often the case, this well-meaning effort got out of hand.  BH quickly morphed into a organization that allowed no disagreement and enforced the strictest of Islamic codes.  Instead of living peacefully with the Christian community, BH made every effort to either drive them off or convert their children.  When it became apparent that the Nigerian authorities were either unwilling or unable to respond, BH began large-scale forced conversions.  Instead of focusing on education, BH became a para-military organization, bent on proselytizing extremist Islam.  At the zenith of its reach, BH was smart enough to reach out to other like-minded organizations, which will provide a lifeline, if the Nigerian military is successful in forcing BH out of Nigeria.  BH is present in Ghana, in Cote d'Ivoire, and in the Cameroon.  Many of his soldiers are "brainwashed" teens, some not much older than ten, eleven years of age.  In many cases, these young fighters are the most dedicated.  I won't mention the fate of the young girls that are randomly kidnapped.  Suffice to say that the lucky ones are forced into sometimes plural marriages with men usually many years older.

Because of the growing population rate in sub-Saharan Africa, the pressure on the various national economies will only increase.  At the moment, even the most optimistic economies like South Africa, Nigeria, Namibia, Botswana, Gabon and Ghana, have unemployment rates for post-high school males as high as forty percent.  This group of unemployed, bored, many times hungry, unable to afford university fees, young men are the perfect targets for the IS.  Since the Islamic faith has done such an outstanding job introducing Islam to poorer African communities, many of these young men are already halfway home.        

An Examination Of Al-Qaeda In 2015

Links: A. Who's Left To Lead Al-Qaeda?
           B. Al-Qaeda (Arab. Peninsula) Attempts to Counter Drones

I can't recall who was chosen as Time magazine's "Person of the Year - 2014", but the Islamic State (IS) would have been as good a choice as any (as long as bad guys get to play as well).  The frequent stories from northern Iraq about mass executions and starving children at least elevated IS to the "most despised" position.  The stated goal of the Islamic State is the creation of a Caliphate somewhere in the Levant/Mesopotamia/North Africa/Arabian Peninsula, and in furtherance of that goal, the IS is engaged in a conventional war in both Syria and Iraq.  It would appear that the IS has pushed Al-Qaeda not only from the front page, but all the way to the back next to Dear Abby.  Our Air Force is in regular combat with the IS, and we are providing military aid to the Free Syrian Army, the Iraqis and the Kurds, so it only makes sense that 2014 came with a steady diet of news on the IS.  For those of us who are obsessed with staying informed, the blogosphere is a miracle.  I can hop over to www.longwarjournal.org at any time for an update on Al-Qaeda.  The truth is, the death of Osama Bin Laden did not lead to the collapse of AQ.  Long before Abbottabad, Bin Laden had restructured the Al-Qaeda network of communications and operations, to avoid dependence on any one leader.  The virus that is Al-Qaeda is still very active in certain parts of the world.  Let's take stock of Al-Qaeda as 2015 begins.

Pakistan/Afghanistan - it would be foolish for anyone to claim that Al-Qaeda is stronger anywhere else in the world than Pakistan and Afghanistan.  For reasons of simplification, I consider the Taliban to be "Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan".  Does the Pakistani government expect the American people to believe that no one in the Pakistani Intelligence Service or military was aware that Bin Laden and his immediate family were living in Abbottabad?  Bullshit.  The Pakistani Intelligence Service has a number of very dedicated, decent officers, many of whom are pro-West in political orientation. But it also contains a traditional, deep-rooted vein of support for both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.  More importantly, it appears that the people of Pakistan support AQ.  How long has it been since an international sampling/polling company like Gallup has provided numbers on the sympathies of the Pakistani people?  No need to take a poll....just listen to the people on the street.  They hate the British (even though it seems as if half of London is Pakistani), hate the United States and REALLY hate India.  Lots of hate going around, which isn't surprising, given the perpetual state of endemic poverty the Pakistani people wake up to every morning.  Sadly, I'm losing my sympathy in old age.  Stop having so many damn kids, stop electing thieves, and stop spending over fifty percent of the nation's budget on nuclear research and weapons to aim at India.  As is my habit, I've gotten off-topic; my apologies.  The point is, Al-Qaeda is safe in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  At times over the past ten years, we were close to eradicating AQ in Afghanistan.  But the draw-down and the confusing policy of the Obama Administration has allowed for a full rejuvenation of AQ influence and control.

Iraq - I don't believe that AQ has any current interest in Iraq, although I have seen reports of recruiting efforts in the Sunni community and also training bases in the far west of the country.  As MB pointed out last summer, the IS was actually born of an AQ parent.  Al-Qaeda in Iraq, led by the late Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, began to lose steam in 2007-2008, as the Sunni people grew tired of the violence and constant warfare, and withdrew support.  Al-Qaeda in Iraq eventually ended up in Syria and re-emerged with a different name and a different mission.  But make no mistake - the IS is a Sunni-based group with numerous similarities to AQ.  I have always suspected that the lines of communication between the IS and AQ are much more active than people are willing to admit.  It behooves both organizations to make the west believe that the IS and AQ are two separate, very distinct groups working towards a different agenda.  It leaves the impression that Islamic Extremism is a growing umbrella movement with room for many, many more, and that agreement on all issues is not required.

Yemen - Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has been active for over a decade, trying to remove the current government and replace it with...well, AQAP.  The conflict in Yemen is a microcosm of the conflict in Iraq.  Not only are the Sunni fighting amongst themselves (the secular government against AQAP), but the large Shia population has armed itself and made its presence known.  And in the middle is the United States, with a substantial military footprint in Yemen and drones flying around everywhere, looking for AQAP to blow to bits.  I understand that the Shia are determined to keep AQAP from succeeding in Yemen, just as the continued presence of U.S. military in Yemen (that includes the U.S. Navy) will keep AQAP pissed off enough to stay in the fight.  Yemen has provided Al-Qaeda with the perfect environment to train its new recruits, as AQAP has demonstrated that it is in possession of the latest weaponry (although I'm not sold on the Jiffy-Pop tablecloth as the best way to avoid a drone strike...see link #2).

Africa - Al-Qaeda is very active in Africa, and, unfortunately, very healthy.  AQ has a definite presence in Libya, but I am guessing they are playing the same game as us; waiting for the dust to clear.  Al-Qaeda has proven to be a very patient organization, which I believe is more the philosophy of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the crusty old psychopath who took over after Bin Laden took a couple bullets to the front right side of his head.  Dr. Zawahiri is all about the methodology (he is a physician, after all), and he is probably the one who has orchestrated the "sleeper cell" operation, if one exists (scary thought).  Al-Qaeda in Africa is most active under the moniker "Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb", with the Maghreb being that hard-to-define area that is basically west of Egypt and north of Mali, Niger, Mauritania and Chad.  Actually, I consider the northern half of Mali, Niger and Chad to be part of the Maghreb.  Al-Qaeda has used Islam to propel its message from oasis to oasis and campsite to campsite.  In some of the struggling communities they have found a receptive audience.  Al-Qaeda's most receptive audiences, though, are in the northern parts of Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali and Niger.  These people have been forsaken by their governments for one reason or another (usually because the president and the ruling party are from a tribe of economically successful southerners).  Boko Haram, for all its radical ideas, and the Lord's Resistance Army, for all its insanity, have found recruits around every corner.  Africa presents an opportunity for AQ to recruit heavily and to create a second base of security (after Afghanistan).

Southeast Asia - Al-Qaeda has always been comfortable in Indonesia and the Philippines, where the government is always in the midst of some new effort to root out the communist insurgency that has been active since Karl Marx was in short pants (or at least seems like it).  Indonesia is another country which provides AQ the opportunity to spread its message through the mosques and Islamic educational centers on Java.  In the last two decades, the transportation network in this part of the world has grown by leaps and bounds.  Flying from Malaysia to Australia, or Singapore to Beijing, or Vientiane to Manila, is as simple as buying a ticket, and the arrival of the no-frills airlines (AirAsia being a good example) has made air travel affordable.  This complicates matters for security personnel in every country.  Its as if even Al-Qaeda can have conference calls in 2015.  Indonesia also presents fertile ground for recruitment, and the mosques have a bad reputation for preaching some really nasty, anti-U.S., anti-Aussie propaganda.

My next post will focus exclusively on Al-Qaeda on Africa, with other geographic locations to follow.  I consider Al-Qaeda, not the Islamic State, be the number one international terror threat to the United States.

Islamic State Expanding Into North Africa

Link: Islamic State Pushes Into North Africa

For decades, north Africa and the Sahel have always been Al-Qaeda territory, at least as far as butchers and beheaders are concerned.  But as the Islamic State (IS) continues to

exhibit a potent growth rate, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) had better make sure they've collected their dues this month;  the IS is the new extremist bad-boy club on the block, and they intend on co-opting everyone within range of a bullet.  In the link above, I paid particular attention to comments made by Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who believes that we should expect the IS to become more active in north Africa.  Joscelyn is a treasure trove of knowledge regarding events in the Near East, and his real-time analysis is always spot-on.  He is the main reason I am such a devotee of The Long War Journal (www.longwarjournal.org).

So the IS has decided to expand westward.  I'm assuming that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has his own version of Manifest Destiny.  The truth is, the ground is ripe for seeding, especially in the Sudan and Libya.  But lets start in Egypt.  The IS has a variety of scapegoats to drag out in this country, including the traditional whipping boy: the Coptic Christians.  For the life of me I can't fathom how there can be any Christians left in Egypt, let alone Coptic Christians.  They can jump on the "anti-military" bandwagon, but I think that bus is full.  Personally, I don't see the IS finding a receptive audience in Egypt.  I think Morsi was as a religious of a leader as the Egyptian people would like.  Egypt is a country with a modern communications infrastructure.  The people understand the difference between progress and trading in the used Renault for a camel.  I believe the people of Egypt, the vocal young populace in particular, want both a democratic system of government and economic progress.  The IS stands for neither.  On the other hand, Libya is the perfect breeding ground for giant fleas (like the folks we refer to as the IS).  When authority has broken down, and I mean packed up and completely left town, people will look to just about anyone for leadership.  The IS has recently become the governing body for the town of Darna. What the hell is Darna?  It's a start, that's what it is; and the Islamic State will take measures in Darna that will be observed by other communities.  We all know that the Islamic State is well-funded.  All they have to do is feed the people of Darna, maybe get the power turned back on, and keep the muggers and rapists off the streets (and back in the IS camp where they belong).  The IS has used this recipe to co-opt communities in Syria and Iraq, and the formula will work just fine in Libya.  What absolutely amazes me is that western companies are still able to keep their petroleum operations functioning.  I imagine that a huge amount of money is being paid to private security armies, but just how much longer are these operations going to be feasible?  And here comes the IS.  Let Mookie make a prediction.  In roughly six months or less, Libya is going to return to the headlines.  No one wants the IS to take possession of the petroleum set-ups in Libya anymore than the ones they fight for in Baiji, Iraq, where the battle continues on currently.

Let move south to the Sudan.  The government currently sitting in Khartoum would make great badminton partners for al-Baghdadi and his herd.  President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Court in the Hague, loves to send his minions on "Christian

slaughtering" expeditions.  The Sudan (force of habit...I say "the Sudan" and "the Cameroon" and a few other left-over examples of colonial bad manners) is no longer what it used to be.  We now have a South Sudan, but don't ask me who is President, or even the name of the capital city (Juba, maybe?).  I believe that the IS would find a warm welcome in Khartoum, as al-Bashir and al-Baghdadi seem to adhere to the same brand of extreme Islam.  I can't imagine that the IS would stretch its Caliphate map to include the Sudan, and al-Bashir would welcome any opportunity to stick his finger in the eye of the EU and the United States.  Khartoum would be an ideal staging ground for an IS expansion into Chad, Niger and Mali.  The people of Saharan Africa would probably welcome the IS, since no one else seems to give a damn about them.  Mali is already dealing with a re-emergence of AQIM (who, interestingly enough, keep stirring up shit in Niger).  With the west focused almost exclusively on Ebola, and AQIM a shadow of its former self, a bit of a vacuum does exist.  North of Boko Haram in Nigeria, west of Khartoum, and east of Mauritania is where the IS will find its most fertile recruitment locations.  Folks will look at the map and say, "Mookie, have you lost your mind?  The only thing east of Mauritania is the Sahara Desert!"  Believe it or not, people live in that desert.  But its the communities on the very periphery of the Sahara that cause me concern.  A strict form of Islam is enforced, which promotes reliance on family ties and inter-dependence.  In many ways, adherence to strict principles of Islam have helped many of these villages and communities survive.  Al Qaeda had no trouble taking route here, and I can't imagine that the IS will either.  The bunch of filthy rich investors with money in the gold and diamond mines of west Africa had better keep an eye on this potential problem.

The French In Africa Don't Mess Around

Links: A. French Colonial History In Africa
           B. French Military Presence In Africa
           C. French Anti-Terror Initiative in Africa

As you know by now, when writing these posts, there are some things I like to get out in the open.  I'm French.  Yes, I live in Texas.  I say, "Y'all" and "howdy".  And I'm an American citizen.  But my mother is a French national (dual citizenship) and I spent a great deal of my formative years in France.  French was my first language, and I am very proud of my heritage.  I am very close to my French family and I visit as often as possible.  In fact, in my soon to be released book, I spend an entire chapter highlighting the surprising and sometimes hilarious similarities between my French family and my Kentucky kin in Harlan County, KY.  During the summer of my thirteenth year, my parents decided to bring the two families together - but you'll have to buy the book for that story folks, and believe me, its worth it.  I have equal affection for both sets of relatives, and one day I hope to write a book detailing the history of my Kentucky family.  Today however, we are chatting a bit about France.  More precisely: France in Africa.

I included the first link in order to jump-start the memory back to high school world history.  For the most part, since the demise of the Roman Empire, France has been a major European power.  In 1781, thanks to the presence of the French fleet under Admiral De Grasse, General George Washington defeated British General Cornwallis at the Battle of Yorktown, and the United States gained its independence.  The French Empire, under the royal houses of Bourbon, Orleans, Bonaparte and Bourbon encore une fois, was determined to spread the culture and language of France around the globe (and also locate the odd gold and diamond mines in the mean time).  The French felt very comfortable in Africa, and developed an extensive colonial presence in west Africa in particular (although three million French would eventually make Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria their home, for the purpose of this post, I'm going focus on west Africa, separate from north Africa).  France divided its sub-Saharan colonies into French West Africa and French Equatorial Africa.  Once the drive for independence took root in the late 1950s and 1960s, the French did everything possible to encourage a peaceful and smooth transition.  In fact, during the colonial years, France had been very successful building schools and instilling French language and culture in its colonies.  France invested tremendous sums of money in building ports in Dakar and Abidjan that would act as a springboard to economic growth in the newly independent Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire.  The Napoleonic system of law is still in effect in most francophone countries.  Also in an effort to show the importance of keeping the former African colonies within the French family, France created a currency, the CFA Franc, whose deposits were (and still are) guaranteed by the Bank of France in Paris.  No doubt, the French ended colonialism a bit differently than the Brits, Belgians, Spanish and Portuguese.

For the most part, successive French governments in the 1960s and 1970s did not have to worry much about intervening militarily in the affairs of former colonies (let's not get started on Algeria, which is a subject for a post all to itself).  The francophone community consisted of Senegal, Mali, Niger, Chad, Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire, Upper Volta (Burkina Faso), the Central African Republic, Togo, Benin, Cameroun, Congo-Brazzaville, and Gabon.

At one time or another, the French Foreign Legion was obliged to put down a coup or calm some event of civil unrest, but internal "policing" on behalf of France was expected in many quarters.  What came as a surprise to most, was the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in sub-Saharan Africa.  The late 1960s and 1970s introduced the world to terrorism with the blunt arrival of groups like the PLO, the Red Army, and Baader-Meinhof.  Along with the rest of Europe, France had to deal with the scourge of airline hijackings.  The resolution of the conflict in Vietnam, the Egyptian/Israeli Peace Accord, and the end of the Cold War seemed to usher in a time of peace, but it was to be unfortunately short-lived.  The idea that a ragtag army of mountain fighters in Afghanistan, trained and armed by the CIA, could defeat the Soviet military, raised a few eyebrows, to be sure.  The departure of the Russians in Afghanistan created a vacuum which led to the rise of the Taliban, and the inevitable birth of Al-Qaeda.

During the days of the Ottoman Empire, caravans of traders ranged far and wide across west Africa, spreading Islam where it did not exist, and strengthening it where it did. A very strong, traditional brand of Islam took root in the Oasis and desert towns of the Sahel.  The remoteness of places like Gao, Tamanrasset, Agadez and Tombouctou held to their conservative brand of Sunni Islam, which relies so much on discipline and the appropriate deference.  The bad guys moved in like bees to honey.  In the more populous communities of northern Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria, an aggressive, parasitic type of Islam has led to one civil war and appears determined to start another.  In 2013, The French Army was obliged to intervene in Mali, where a small Tuareg rebellion had been hijacked by Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQM), and had occupied Tombouctou.  Not surprisingly, France poured three thousand soldiers into the conflict and had smashed the uprising in a little over a month.    The French military was also obliged to intervene directly in a civil war in the Central African Republic (how can you have a civil war when you really don't even have a country anymore?).  France has decided to keep a permanent military presence in west Africa, which is welcomed by every francophone country. In fact, the only African leader who voiced opposition was Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi (...whatever happened to that guy?).  France has created a military force which is just the right size, with just the right kind of soldiers, to react quickly and decisively in a west African environment.  And don't lose sight of the economic realities in place:  French businesses have billions of euro tied up in the mines in Cote d'Ivoire and Mali, and in the ports of Dakar and Abidjan.  West Africa also presents a security issue for France:  Aside from the fact that everyday Islamic Extremists in Africa use social media to influence their relatives who have emigrated to France, the Élysée Palace cannot afford to lose sight of the uranium that Niger provides, which keeps French nuclear reactors, nuclear submarines and nuclear aircraft carriers running.  The trouble in northern Mali that was quelled in 2013, appears to be reorganizing.  Mali has recently undergone a political transformation and is currently in a battle to keep Ebola at bay.  These extremist assholes always pick the best times to cause trouble.  Unfortunately for them, the French are on the spot, and just three days ago, twenty-four Al-Qaeda-in-training never made it to their first big terrorist attack.

If you've been to France, but have never experienced French Africa, you will have such a pleasant surprise.  The French language and culture appears to have seamlessly

strengthened the communities of Conakry and Niamey.  In downtown Abidjan, you can wake up in the morning to Café au lait and croissants and today's edition of Le Figaro (I'm sure le Monde is available as well).  The cars are Peugeot and Renault, and the roads are marked in kilometres.  Any Christian community is bound to be Catholic, and the children grow up with Tintin, Asterix and Obelix, and Lucky Luke.  At the same time, Mopti is Africa, as are Yamoussoukro and Bobo Dioulasso.  I find Africans to be the epitome of true artists.  They are so connected to nature, and forgive so easily.  I have always thought of France as a country of artists as well, although no doubt the line to disagree with me stretches around the block.  I think this is the reason France and her former African colonies have had such a long record of forgiveness and mutual admiration.

Who's At The Door, Ebola or Al-Qaeda?

Links: A. French Troops Battle Terrorists In Northern Mali
           B. France Retaking Its Former Empire

You have to feel for the poor people of Mali.  The country is landlocked and would probably be a complete desert if it weren't for the Niger River.  Mali shares a border with Cote d'Ivoire

which, until recently, allowed Mali access to the second busiest port in West Africa (Dakar being first).  Unfortunately, in 2002 Cote d'Ivoire's turn came up on the African civil war Merry-Go-Round, which split the country between north and south and lasted until 2011.  The conflict has ended and Cote d'Ivoire has recovered in record time. The roads between Mali and Cote d'Ivoire are again full of trucks carrying goods between Bamako, Mali and the port of Abidjan; although, sadly the condition of the roads leaves a lot to be desired.  For roughly a decade Mali was solely dependent upon its road and rail (gulp!) links to the west: namely, Dakar, Senegal.  In 2012, Mali suffered through the Tuareg Rebellion.  The nomadic Tuareg people of northern Mali (Tuaregs are also present in southern Algeria and northern Niger), revolted in reaction to feeling marginalized by the government in Bamako and the mining activity, which they claimed damaged pastoral grazing lands.  It didn't take long for the world's favorite parasite, Al-Qaeda (in this incarnation, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb - AQIM), to join the rebellion alongside the Tuaregs.  Not surprisingly, AQIM quickly pushed the well-meaning Tuareg aside and began to threaten other interests (read: French) further south (which included the occupation of Tombouctou).  The French Army arrived in January 2013 and one month later the issue was resolved.  The French military has always come to a fight ready to win both quickly and completely.  I remember when the United States military carried the same reputation. 

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita,
President of Mali

The Tuareg Rebellion cost Malian President Amadou Toure his job; the transitional military government kept its word and respectably clean elections were held in August 2013.  Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was sworn in on September 4, and he has done a superb job to date.  The Ebola outbreak in Guinea and Liberia brought the attention of the world to west Africa.  Mali has a long border with both Guinea and Liberia, and given the state of Mali's infrastructure (and low international expectations), great concern was expressed that Mali would also suffer an outbreak.  President Keita put national sensitivities aside and asked the United States and Europe to send medical experts.  The International Red Cross (IRC) was already in place, and all necessary authority and support was given by the Malian Ministry of Health to facilitate the education and preparation of both cities and rural communities.  Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) arrived, as did the Center for Disease Control from Atlanta and the World Health Organization (WHO).  Mali already had capable, modern hospitals in Bamako and Sikasso, and the Center for Tuberculosis and AIDS Research (SEFERO).  Screening facilities and Isolation Units were set up at all border crossings and Ports of Entry.  Heeding the request made by President Obama, Mali has kept open its border posts with Liberia and Guinea (despite intense pressure put on President Keita from internal groups).  To date, Mali has registered only one positive case of Ebola, and that was the tragic instance of a now-deceased two-year old child from Guinea who was transported across the border by her grandmother after the death of her mother.  No doubt additional confirmed cases will occur, but all in all, Mali has set an example for other nations (not only third world) to follow when bordering a contagious viral outbreak.

Again, exhibiting a willingness to take advantage of every opportunity, AQIM has made its presence known again.  I've heard it said that after the nuclear apocalypse, the only things left alive will be cock roaches and Cher.  Well, lets add AQIM to the list.  These nasty, parasitic desert rats dug some deep tunnels to escape French and Malian justice, and now the resources of the government are tied up not only in combating the threat of Ebola, but also in trying to build a durable, functioning transportation network to support a growing economy.  Earlier in the year, the Chinese had come around, promising all sorts of goodies.  In fact, China and Mali had negotiated Chinese financial sponsorship of an $11 Billion new railway system to replace the existing rail to Dakar (built in 1884; last real servicing completed in 1924) and to build an entire new railway from Bamako to the port city of Conakry, Guinea.  Sadly, in the last few weeks the Chinese have started to hedge on their commitment, issuing a statement that discussions took place but no obligations were agreed upon.  Bullshit.  The Chinese economy has started to show signs of trouble, which would make reconsideration of expensive foreign projects only routine.  Eleven billion dollars is nothing to the Bank of China, but it could actually change the lives of 15 Million Malians.  What is my interest in this situation?  I love west Africa.  I'm half-French and I truly enjoy the Francophile community.  And everyone, who is willing to do their part, deserves an opportunity.

Still Stuck In Africa...Let's Talk About Liberia And Ebola (Part II)

Links: Wikipedia Liberia
           The U.S. Has An Obligation To Liberia
           Mea Culpa To Dallas From The Liberian President

(Part II)
The second and third links I have chosen deal with the outbreak of Ebola in Liberia (and Guinea).  To get right to the point, when a serious outbreak of a hemorrhagic virus strikes a poor country where most of the population ingests less than one thousand calories a day  the body count can become shockingly high in a matter of days.  The truth is, this outbreak has not yet "exploded", for lack of a better term.  Perhaps this is because Ebola actually isn't that easy to catch, or because the Liberian and Guinean governments (and international organizations) have responded to the outbreak so

effectively.  The answer is most likely a combination of both factors.  On Oct. 15, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 4,546 people have died from the Ebola virus with an additional 8,997 confirmed cases.  My source estimates are a bit different: roughly 18,000 cases (although not officially confirmed), mostly in Guinea and Liberia, but also a few in Mali, Sierra Leone, Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal.  I'm told that efforts to isolate the illness in Guinea and Liberia have been outstanding.  The International Red Cross, the WHO, the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC), and Medecins sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) have been working closely together and with the local Ministries of Health to provide isolation equipment, protective clothing, detection equipment, and a variety of other essential medical tools.  Even though the number of new cases appear to have plateaued, and wealthy nations are sending specialists and even troops to the region, many experts are concerned that we are only at the beginning of this outbreak.

Five hundred troops of the U.S. 101st Airborne are headed to West Africa.  The French are

already there, and believe me, when the Elysee Palace in Paris got wind of the U.S. deployment, orders were sent to increase the French presence in what was once part of French West Africa (excluding Liberia and Sierra Leone). I am very familiar with this part of the world, and although independence was granted to Mali, Chad, Niger, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso, a Frenchman is never very far away.  France was much more successful than the Brits in keeping relations pleasant with its former colonies.  It probably had something to do with the fact that the French allowed locally-selected political representation for its colonies in the French House of Deputies, and that France spent a fortune (and continues to do so) standing up and supporting the CFA franc as a currency for its former colonies, and get this, folks...the French treasury guarantees the CFA franc!  Can you imagine the Brits using their precious Sterling to guarantee the Kenyan Shilling

or the Nigerian Dollar?  Back at the ranch...I expect to see the French Foreign Legion deployed to Mali and Cote d'Ivoire in its entirety sometime soon, and the British will have to make their military presence known in Sierra Leone.  The U.S. gets Liberia, as it should.  Too many times in the last century and a half, U.S. administrations have refused to get involved in Liberian problems.  What a shame and what a terrible legacy.  This is one of the few occasions in which I will use the word "shame" and the United States in the same sentence.  Liberia was once a child of the U.S., much like Hawaii (which was a separate Kingdom) and Puerto Rico.  I believe that at one time or another we should have intervened and helped to put things in order.  It wouldn't have taken much because Liberia is a country that is rich in natural resources. However, as is frequently the case in many underdeveloped countries, the Liberian people have rarely seen the benefits from any of its national wealth.

Its certainly not too late to make a difference.  Considering that President Reagan's justification for military intervention and temporary occupation of Grenada was accepted, then without a doubt the United States had the bona fides to involve itself in Liberia's various coups and civil wars.  The flag is almost identical to ours, the towns are named Harper, Fishtown and Greenville, and the original settlers, former American slaves, drew up their original Constitution as a mirror of our own.  Why then did we chose to ignore Liberia for so many years?  Because it is in Africa, over there "somewhere", and didn't figure into our strategic national interests.  Fast-forward to 2014, and Liberia doesn't need a strong-arm presence to re-establish order.  Liberia has an honest, determined, brilliant, popular President who has been dealt the shittiest of hands by fate.  As for the French, U.S., and U.K. troops, their presence is intended to help keep order during evacuations, if such need arises.  So far they have not been needed, although the French contingent in Mali may have its hands full fighting a reborn "Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb" flare-up in the north.  My contact in Bamako, Mali is more concerned with the Al-Qaeda threat than she is Ebola.  The French military (and government) normally never hesitate to act where terrorists are concerned, as they demonstrated in Mali in 2012-2013, so I hope this mess doesn't turn into a two-front issue (Ebola in the south, Al-Qaeda Magreb in the north).  As I sit here at my computer, most of the involved parties are eyeing the border areas between Mali and Guinea/Liberia, and Cote d'Ivoire and Guinea/Liberia.  A number of gold mines exist in the border areas, with a number of mine workers coming from the infected countries.  Everyone is sitting on edge, waiting for the first confirmed case in Mali and/or Cote d'Ivoire.  As for the spread of Ebola, I will remain probably the last optimistic person in the U.S.  I expect that the number of cases in Liberia and Guinea will start to decline, so we can put this subject on the back burner, and return to our daily criticism of this administration and how it handles foreign affairs.

11 missing planes from Tripoli Airport in Libya

Link: Planes missing from Tripoli Airport

Initially I had planned to blog about another subject this evening, but a friend brought this

story to my attention and I decided to share my perspective.  Unfortunately we are missing a few vital pieces of information, including the type of aircraft and the condition.  Certain media folks have already raised the alarm that the missing planes could be used in "9/11 copycat" operations.  At this stage, with so little information to process, anything is possible.  For the sake of discussion, lets assume that the planes were commercial aircraft (along the lines of Airbus, Boeing, and McDonald-Douglas), and that they have been flown to other as yet unknown airfields.  Although the planes have been identified as "commercial airliners", there is the possibility that some or all could be cargo carriers.  As of early 2013, Afriqiyah Airways and Libyan Airlines both utilized Tripoli Airport as their main hub, and both companies basically flew Airbus-built planes (no Boeing or McDonald-Douglas in their inventory), and nothing larger than a 320.  This is important because the larger the plane, the larger the runway.  Unfortunately, you can land an Airbus 320 in the bed of an El Camino (they are relatively small planes, similar in size to the 737).  Back to our assumption: at this point we have no way to determine if the planes were flown to one location or broken up into groups and spread out.  It is possible; I'm sure Libya is full of airfields that were left over from the last World War, not to mention temporary airfields constructed to accommodate the petroleum industry.  The planes are missing, and there are plenty of places in the near vicinity to hide them (but only for so long...the Drones are out there looking as we speak).

One thing the continent of Africa does not need is more planes.  I like to joke that Africa is truly the place old planes go to die.  The next time you are looking to kill a few hours on the computer, cruise over to Google Earth and have a look at the various airports that serve the cities of Africa.  Start off with Khartoum, then maybe Ouagadougou or Bangui, and notice all the rusting hulks of abandoned planes that litter the periphery of the runway.  When a manufacturer like Boeing or Airbus (or Vickers just to be fair to our British friends) ceases production of a particular model, you can count the years before it starts appearing in Africa in significant numbers.  It happened with the Boeing 707, various Lockheed models, and the Airbus 300.  Not surprisingly Africa is littered with Russian junk, some of still flying.  The point is, once an airliner is too old to be useful, or is no longer able to meet safety or EPA (or the EU version of the EPA) standards, it has a good chance of ending up in the third world, where safety regulations are usually seen as "suggestions".  In my soon-to-be-released book I made a point to tell a few "flying in Africa" stories, some of which will leave you in stitches.  I could personally take you to acquaintances in at least 10 African countries who would be able to sell you a Boeing or an Airbus or a McDonald Douglas jet and hand you the keys before the sun goes down (provided you have the cash up-front).  The point is, the bad guys do not have trouble finding planes to buy.  For a legitimate terrorist group, it would not be necessary to steal planes from the runway in Tripoli.  Let's have a look at the group that seems to be responsible for the missing planes. 

The Masked Men Brigade (MMB) is a small terrorist group that split from "Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb" (AQIM) in 2012 and formed it own group, lead by a particularly nasty character named Mokhtar Belmokhtar.  If in fact MMB is in possession of the missing planes, then we must assume they found persons who were able to fly and navigate the jets to pre-designated locations (its a bit trickier than flying a carpet, I'm told).  Its possible that MMB just happened to be the last Jihadi group standing after the battle for the airport, and got lucky enough to round up enough pilots.  But why take 11 planes?  Why not just 2 or 3? Its very possible that the intention was to sell the planes on the black market (there's a black market for everything, and Africa is the place) in order to raise operational funds, since Al-Qaeda is no longer paying the Cable Bill.

I fear the sensationalist approach to this story has everyday folks wondering if one of these planes is going to be used to crash into big buildings somewhere.  Its certainly possible, but highly unlikely.  Whether its one plane or 11, a suicidal pilot is needed, and probably a suicidal co-pilot/navigator as well, and a decent amount of aviation fuel (assuming the plane would be flying from inside Libya and out over the Mediterranean).  Then the bad guys have to deal with post -9/11 enhanced radar capabilities.  Regardless of the approach or the altitude, I can't imagine an unidentified plane even getting close to a European population center.  And its not only the voice identification issue.  Planes communicate recognition signals without involvement from the cabin crew, not to mention the GPS in each engine.  I cannot hypothesize a situation in which an unidentified commercial-sized jet can get past both NATO and whichever respective European Air Force.  On the other hand, it might be possible to pull something off if the target is an African city.  But what would be the motivation or the purpose?

Watching Libya as it descends back into chaos is depressing.  Its nearly impossible to separate some of the groups that are fighting each other, and the names seem to change on a weekly basis.  A day doesn't go by that I don't think of Libya.  I lost a friend in Benghazi and I can only hope that I will eventually reconcile myself to those events.  One lesson I learned about myself: I can't outrun nightmares.  The Libyan people are stuck in what seems like an open-ended nightmare, and its sad that it takes the death of 4 heroes to get people talking about events in Benghazi, or Tripoli, or Surt.  As for the missing planes, I pray that the story ends with the location and neutralization of each one of those potential weapons.  

God Bless James Foley and Steven Sotloff.