Why should the West be concerned with the intentions of the Islamic State in Africa? (Part II)

Links: A. ISIS supporting Al-Shabaab in Africa?
           B. ISIS eager to recruit South Africans.

In Part II we will focus on the Islamic State (IS) in Sub-Saharan Africa.  The Muslim states of West Africa are vitally important, because they will discreetly provide financial and material support to Islamic extremist groups, while publicly disavowing any involvement or knowledge of these organizations.

Mauritania.  To start, Mauritania is a bit of a mystery.  The government gives the appearance of being deeply observant of all Islamic Laws and traditions.  At the same time, Mauritania has steered a very moderate course diplomatically, snuggling up to France in particular.  In truth, Mauritania is a lightly-populated country that consists almost exclusively of SAND.  Eventually, the engineers and researchers will find oil in Mauritania, mark my word.

Al-Qaeda in the Magreb.   Al-Qaeda remains active in West Africa, in Mali and Niger in particular.  In 2013, Al-Qaeda more-or-less surprised everyone by hopping the coat tails of a Tuareg insurrection in northern Mali.  The Tuaregs, who had made repeated complaints to the government in Bamako, were suffering from private French companies occupying oases and disturbing traditional Tuareg trading patterns.  The Tuaregs felt that they had no choice but to take up arms, at least long enough to attract the European press.  But before you can say, "Camel Fart", Al-Qaeda had hijacked the Tuaregs little rebellion.  The Tuaregs quickly faded away, but Al-Qaeda in the Magreb (AQM) meant business, attacking Malian military and government installations as far south as Timbuktu.  In steps the French, who roll up AQM in record time (not many prisoners taken, from what I understand).  In the Fall of 2014, AQM, taking advantage of a government focused exclusively on combating Ebola, popped back up in northern Mali.  And this time, they were better armed and willing to involve others.  AQM repeatedly crossed the border into Niger and conducted raids against simple villages, along with the usual attacks against government and civilian targets in Mali.  Again, the French military has arrived on the scene, and I expect and even more thorough accounting of AQM.  I can hear you now, asking, "why all this AQM bullshit when the post is supposed to be about the IS"?  The answer is simple; the post is about the IS.  Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are, for all practical purposes, the same organization.  They are both Sunni-based, violent, terrorist groups dedicated to the removal of infidels from their "Holy Land".  They communicate with each other, they assist one another, and they play-up the western media's insistence on separating the two. As always, this is only my opinion.  Come see me in a year and remind me how wrong I was.

Al-Shabaab.  One fact that is not debatable is that the IS was born into the Al-Qaeda family.  In its former life, it was known as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq".  After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as the leader of the organization, and a new name, "the Islamic State in the Sham" (ISIS) was chosen.  Folks, I'm leaving out all sorts of important background to the genesis of IS, but this post has to stay within reasonable limits.  Al-Baghdadi really began to make the IS about himself, and let it be known to Al-Qaeda head Ayman Al-Zawahiri, that IS was able to function on its own.  Now this is as close to a complete rift with Al-Qaeda as ever occurred.  Zawahiri didn't have much to bitch about because the IS was kicking ass and taking names all over Iraq and Syria.  More recently, as the organization stretches its legs a bit, relationships have been established with like-minded Sunni extremist groups around the world, including Africa.  Al-Shabaab, that nasty bunch of turds that tried to turn Somalia into an Islamic State ruled by Islamic Courts (sounds wonderful, doesn't it?), have established themselves in the townships of Kenya, which are ripe recruitment areas.  Social Media is the master at bringing people together, and the IS and Al-Shabaab have been expressing support for one another for some time.  These two groups need each other.  Al-Shabaab needs the organizational skills, the discipline, and the funding of the IS, and the IS needs the geographic reach, and the potential recruitment opportunities available to Al-Shabaab.  They are both Sunni based, therefore there will be no trouble finding ideological (read: idiot-logical) common ground.  Al-Shabaab has established a presence as far south as South Africa and as far west as Namibia.

Boko Haram.  Ehen the Nigerian based terrorist organization, "Boko Haram", announced its support for the IS, the news was treated as a truly important development.  During the same week, the combined military forces of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Benin inflicted defeat after defeat on Boko Haram, who was now only in control of four northern communities (from twenty just the week before).  It was no surprise that Boko Haram (BH) wanted to change the headline, and the press obliged.  The poor Nigerian Army; after months of getting raked over the coals by the domestic and international press, they finally have a very successful strong of victories, and they get upstaged by BH's announcement of love for the IS.  The truth is, even though BH has very recently received a black eye and a bloody nose, this organization is built similar to the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, and it is more than able to retreat into the jungle and reconstitute itself.  I find BH to be the most dangerous terrorist group on the continent, and that includes north Africa.  Anyone engaged against BH needs to be familiar with its history, as BH is very loyal to its founding principles and the accompanying religious ideology.  The organization was originally established in support of providing Islamic education in northern Nigerian schools.  At the time, there was a need for a bit of a "siege mentality", as the Islamic community in Nigeria had many opponents.  Through concentration of resources and discipline, the Islamic community in northern Nigeria was able to effectively establish a network of Islamic schools.  As is often the case, this well-meaning effort got out of hand.  BH quickly morphed into a organization that allowed no disagreement and enforced the strictest of Islamic codes.  Instead of living peacefully with the Christian community, BH made every effort to either drive them off or convert their children.  When it became apparent that the Nigerian authorities were either unwilling or unable to respond, BH began large-scale forced conversions.  Instead of focusing on education, BH became a para-military organization, bent on proselytizing extremist Islam.  At the zenith of its reach, BH was smart enough to reach out to other like-minded organizations, which will provide a lifeline, if the Nigerian military is successful in forcing BH out of Nigeria.  BH is present in Ghana, in Cote d'Ivoire, and in the Cameroon.  Many of his soldiers are "brainwashed" teens, some not much older than ten, eleven years of age.  In many cases, these young fighters are the most dedicated.  I won't mention the fate of the young girls that are randomly kidnapped.  Suffice to say that the lucky ones are forced into sometimes plural marriages with men usually many years older.

Because of the growing population rate in sub-Saharan Africa, the pressure on the various national economies will only increase.  At the moment, even the most optimistic economies like South Africa, Nigeria, Namibia, Botswana, Gabon and Ghana, have unemployment rates for post-high school males as high as forty percent.  This group of unemployed, bored, many times hungry, unable to afford university fees, young men are the perfect targets for the IS.  Since the Islamic faith has done such an outstanding job introducing Islam to poorer African communities, many of these young men are already halfway home.        

Combating The Spread Of Extremism In The Third World (Part II)

Links A. Impact of The Repudiation Of Third World Debt
          B. Council On Foreign Relations Comments Regarding Terrorism And Debt



(Part II)

I'm not an economist, though I have followed up on the arguments for and against the dissolution of all foreign debt in Africa.  From my simple perspective, I imagine that the elimination of all debt will loosen up capital for job creation, education reform, infrastructure development, hydro-electric projects, and much more.  Some individuals more cynical than myself, have argued for conditions on any debt relaxation agreement.  The concern is that once the constraints are removed, the inmates will be uncontrollable.  And why would that development automatically be considered a negative?  We want uncontrolled growth.  Granted, certain European and North American commodities might face some unexpected competition in the international marketplace.  Another concern is that providing African nations with control of so much of their own revenue (without that revenue automatically disappearing in loan payments) will encourage a return to the days of political despots.  The concern being, that if you remind the Africans of just how much wealth they have, that inevitably tribal conflict will return, along with the Idi Amins, Mobutu Sese Sekos, Jean-Bedel Bokassas, and the Robert Mugabes (wait a second....that crazy old rooster is still around, isn't he?).  I say, "Racist much?"  This type of thinking proceeds on the assumption that congenitally, the blacks of Africa (regardless of tribe, heritage or language), are unable to learn enough from the errors of the recent pass to avoid repeating those mistakes.  Having spent a decent amount of time in Africa (by the way, six months living in the leafy Pretoria suburbs of Waterkloof or Brooklyn, shopping at the conveniently located Checkers and Menlyn Park Mall, and dining at Priva Gastrolounge, does not constitute "Africa" in my book), I think the people of this continent are ready for a change.  And I don't think they will hesitate to remove anyone who tries to turn back the clock to the days of  endemic corruption.  The world is much smaller, and our leaders are much more accessible.  Africans (especially the younger generation) are ACHING for the opportunity to start with a "Coup de Torchon", a clean slate.  Most the these young people don't remember Daniel arap Moi, Kenneth Kaunda, or PW Botha.  The amazing advances in communication technology has revolutionized education on our planet.  Young people receive lessons in Cultural Geography and Social Studies every time they access the internet on their phone.  In the past, the list of options regarding future employment was limited by many factors.  Today, young people are beginning to accept the idea that they can achieve anything that they're willing to sacrifice and work for.

One particular argument against eliminating the debt of African nations is that it will discourage lenders from getting involved in Africa.  Who wants to make a loan that can be erased twenty years down the road?  No doubt Africa needs continued access to loans from wealthy countries, and its easy to understand how this decision could impact African nation's access to international currency.  But lets approach this dilemma seriously.  If the decision were made to dissolve all debt currently owed by African countries (including to each other), it would be a decision that could only be repeated again by the same group of people/organizations.  If there was a legitimate concern that this one isolated decision would create some contagion effect, removing debt from Latin America  (I already have a solution for Latin America...just dump everyone's debt into Christina Fernandez Kirchner's bank account) being next on the list, I would oppose this initiative.  But as long as rational thought properly influences the decision making process of everyone involved, I believe that a one-time elimination of all African debt, would not create expectations of the same decision being made in other places.  No one can convince me that Africa would become "persona non grata" with the international banking community.  Companies exist for the sole purpose of negotiating international loan agreements.  Personally, I would consider Africa to be one of the safest places to make a loan, if the international community had just agreed to a one-time elimination of all African debt.  Certainly that event won't be repeated in our lifetimes, so any new investment would be safe.  The idea that African countries would no longer have access to the IMF and the international banking community is bogus.  Africa will continue to provide endless opportunities for making money, and plenty companies and organizations looking to make a profit, will line-up to loan money to African nations.

My opinion on this subject has evolved.  When I was younger, I had a strong conviction regarding agreements between people.  Someone's word, and someone's signature, had to be worth something.  I believed that since countries had borrowed (and spent) the money, that they should pay it back.  A bit of research later, and I had discovered that many African countries were using new loans to pay the interest on previous loans.  Reminds me of me in my younger days.  Its all become a bit of a mess.  But technology has given Africans new hope for the future.  Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Mali, and an encouraging number of other African nations are discovering oil reserves (mostly off the coast).  The process of fracking has also started to have an impact on a continent that has always been dependent on energy imports.  Once again, thanks to technology, we have confirmed that West Africa is home to more deposits of Gold and Diamonds than previously thought.  And I haven't even mentioned all the sensitive metals and minerals that sit under the African soil.  If African nations are relieved of the repressive debt obligation, then they would be better-positioned to create their own exploratory companies to access all of this hidden wealth. But some players in the game don't want self-sufficiency in certain market places.  They want to locate, dig, retrieve, and sell whatever particular resource of the moment, and pass back to the host nation a modest one-time payment.  That is the way it has always been done.  An elimination of African debt might just provide the impetus that encourages Mali to explore the north of the nation for oil on its own, not under the foot of a French company.  Wouldn't it be something if Guinea and Botswana cleaned and processed diamonds themselves, instead of relying on Dutch and Israeli companies?  In truth, I'm getting ahead of myself here.  I'm grasping, folks.  I'm looking for an opportunity to be excited for the future.  With Islamic Extremism expanding so rapidly, I welcome any change of circumstances.  Relieving Kenya of its international debt, will allow Nairobi to institute immediate job creation programs in the slums of Kibera.  The government of Kenya can win the battle against Al-Shabaab/Al-Qaeda for the hearts and minds of its young people.  The same argument can be made in Uganda and Nigeria.  Young people will gravitate to a legitimate opportunity to create a successful career, before they will agree to picking up an AK-47 and randomly killing people.  Call me foolishly optimistic, but this is what I believe.

The international banking community, including the IMF, should immediately institute a blanket forgiveness of all African debt, to include Mauritania, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and South Sudan.

Sub-Saharan Africa 2015: What To Expect

Link: Brookings Evaluates Sub-Saharan Africa 2015

When I consider the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2015, by habit, I always start with

political considerations.  But Africa has changed, evolving and adjusting to international economic trends much more quickly than I expected.  I don't think we can under-estimate the impact that communication has had on Sub-Saharan Africa.  The relative simplicity and low cost involved with cell phone networks has brought every dark corner of Africa into the light.  I remember the cell phone revolution as it arrived in South Africa.  It seemed as if overnight, everybody had one.  The real-time contact engendered by the presence of cell phone networks as instrumental in getting the continent reasonably wired on the net.  I remember being in Bangui, Central African Republic, sometime in 2001, and suffering from water shortages and no taxis or public transportation.  But the internet café was up and running, thanks to the world's first home-made satellite dish and a motley combination of modern and World War II-era French Army generators.  From my perspective, the arrival of the cell phone ushered in a techno-economic revolution in Africa.  We had BACP (Before the Arrival of the Cell Phone) and AACP (After the Arrival of The Cell Phone).  I think this date-differentiation can be accurately used when examining economic trends in the Middle East and the Indian Sub-Continent.  The cell phone has made that much of a difference, folks.

Africa in 2015 is connected.  Abidjan is connected to Maputo, and Yaoundé is chatting with Tokyo.  Sadly, the last bit of "African mystery" is gone.  An archaeologist can be digging in Mali and be interrupted by a phone call from Dublin.  But in this instance, there can be no doubt that the benefits of technology outweigh the negatives.  African banks and stock markets have real-time communication with the big guys in Europe, Tokyo and New York.  The western investments in oil and mining no longer have to wait for value-impacting information from on-site.  That information is available as it occurs.  Wow.  More so than in many years, I am optimistic for the future of Sub-Saharan Africa.  The days of military coups and brutal dictators seems to be ending.  Africa still suffers from the ass-boil that is Robert Mugabe, but everyone dies eventually, right?  Some folks see Museveni in Uganda as a dictator, and also young Kabila in Kinshasa.  But these guys seem to be out of touch and behind the times.  The world has become so much smaller, and the money to be made in Africa isn't limited to African money.  There is Euro to be made, and Dollars.  The Chinese seem to be all over Africa, but I think we will see a bit less of them in 2015.  I think the trend away from despots and one-party rule will continue, because there is more money to be made in a competitive system, and even the nasty guys will end up chasing the bigger $.

Let's start with China in 2015.  The Chinese started 2014 on a rampage, flying from capital

Dakar Railway Station;  Source: J.W.H. van der WAAL

to capital, promising all sorts of funding for development projects.  In the past, the Chinese have been good on their word.  They have built roads, dams, and blocks of flats.  Everyone, I mean EVERYONE, took notice when the Chinese offered to finance the rebuilding of the Dakar-Niger Railway.  This ambitious and absolutely overdue plan included building an additional rail line, linking Bamako, Mali and Freetown, Sierra Leone.  As things stand at present, the Dakar-Niger Railway is a mess.  It rarely is able to keep to a schedule and its ability to transport is limited.  Any rain or weather-related incident is likely to shut the rail system down for weeks.  The real problem is the lack of repair of the track system.  Why does this issue attract the attention of EVERYONE (as I stated earlier)?  Because this rail system transports the gas that keeps the various mines in Mali and Guinea in operation, not to mention the other materials it transports that are essential to those particular mining operations that basically belong to western investors.  Ideally, Mali should be able to rely on transport of goods in three directions: Dakar, Freetown, and Abidjan.  I have no doubt that in my lifetime I will see this develop.  But the anticipated rebuilding of the Dakar-Niger railway hit a huge snag.  The Chinese went back to Beijing, took out their calculators, met with banking and economic officials, and announced that "they had never actually agreed to finance the project....that it was all just conversation".  In the end, I think the Chinese will realize that the benefits outweigh the cost, and will provide a definite amount of invaluable goodwill. 

Now for some serious conversation.  African countries need to continue the move away from one-commodity economies.  Nigeria, that doesn't mean you continue moving towards being totally dependent on oil, it means to diversify your economy, so that when the price of oil tanks, your economy doesn't crash as well.  Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana have been successful moving away from a reliance on cocoa, as has Mali with cotton and Botswana with Diamonds.  I am concerned about the falling price of oil and its impact on juvenile economies such as Cabo Verde and Equatorial Guinea. I don't really have much sympathy for Nigeria.  They are sitting on a gold mine of resources, and all they can do in Lagos is fight their own cousins for every Dollar, while the nastiest of insurgencies terrorizes and brutalizes children all over the north of the country.  How does a nation with the resources and international connections of Nigeria, not have an army worth a damn?  All this may

Goodluck Jonathan
Source: World Economic Forum

change if Goodluck Jonathan losses the election in February (it ain't gonna happen, folks).  I would be willing to take a chance on the other guy just for the sake of change.  Ebola in 2015: I believe this outbreak of Ebola is winding down, and Africa learned some invaluable lessons on how to respond.  This particular outbreak could have been monstrous.  For Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, it was.  But the protocols that were put in place and followed worked exactly as expected.  This bodes well for the future.  Unfortunately, West Africa will take some time to climb out of the economic and social disaster that Ebola wrought.  The rest of Africa needs to step up, especially South Africa, who pretends to be a leader, but always seems to be missing at the table during a crisis.  I think China will revisit its commitments, and return with a smile.  The Dakar-Niger project will begin, and positive economic fallout will help with the Ebola recovery.

I think this subject was a bit heavy to tackle in one post, but wither way, as a lover of Africa, I'm looking forward to 2015.  I purposely left South Africa out of the conversation.  They seem to be chugging along just fine down south, on their own schedule and in their own little world.  Zuma had a tough year in 2014, and I anticipate that his enemies are smelling blood, so to speak.  South Africa has always been a bit obsessed with its own identity and importance in the world.  It's sad, because I believe that Nelson Mandela truly wanted South Africa to be the leader of the continent.  Heck, even Nigeria seems to draw more attention from other African states.  South Africa does remain popular for illegal immigration though, as people from all over go searching for jobs and opportunities.  I believe that the fall in the price of oil will be a boost to South Africa, which has always been so sensitive to that commodity.  South Africans have a tendency to worry when the Rand hits a free-fall against the Euro and the Dollar.  They shouldn't.  It directly impacts the all-important tourist industry, not to mention the increasing number of investors from the United States, looking for a good value for their Dollars.

Al-Qaeda In Africa

Link: A. Al-Qaeda Presence In African Countries


(Today's post is the first in a four-part series to begin 2015.  This series will discuss the current state of affairs for the various Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups around the globe.  The next in the series will be the Middle East, followed by Southeast Asia, and concluding with Europe/United States.  Somewhere along the line I will throw out a few comments about Al-Qaeda's presence in Latin America, especially as it relates to drug trafficking, smuggling and the tri-borders region.)

When I originally googled "Al-Qaeda" and "Africa", I expected to find a Wikipedia page full of useful dates and details.  Have a look at the link so you can share in my disappointment. No matter; Al-Qaeda is so active at present that a review of any international news provider should bear fruit.  Surprisingly, the link from Wikipedia doesn't even identify Mali as a location of interest, and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has been stirring the pot in the north of the country for a few years now.  But enough criticism of Wikipedia.  It is an invaluable resource that I would hate to lose, so follow my example and give them a few dollars whenever they start one of their fund-raising drives.  Back to Al-Qaeda and Africa.

Personally, the U.S. Embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 were the first time that I connected the terrorist group Al-Qaeda to the African continent.  I was aware of the organization, mainly because I was already employed for an Intelligence Agency, and I was working in a counter-terrorist branch at the time.  Having spent some time in Kenya and Tanzania, I was immediately useful, as street maps were spread out over desks and rolled-up, dusty maps were pulled out from behind cabinets.  Interestingly enough, I can't remember a time when the group Al-Qaeda was not synonymous with Osama bin-Laden.  Even then in the early years pre-9/11, everyone was already referring to the two as inseparable evils, and with good reason.  Bin-Laden carried his organization on his back, figuratively and literally.  He had spent some time in Afghanistan and trained in the Sudan and Yemen.  I can't be sure but I believe the planning for 9/11 was already in place when the embassy bombings occurred.  I believe another attack was intended, one involving multiple airliners that were to be hijacked out of Manila, and these three attacks (Kenya, NYC, Manila) were going to deliver a message to the West.  The third operation never got off the ground, thank goodness.

Since the 1980s, Al-Qaeda has been active in Africa.  When Somalia descended into post Siad-Barre hell, Al-Qaeda positioned itself to become an integral part of the conservative and extremist Islamic Courts Union, which was the de facto government in Moqdishu for a while.  Once the African Union and the Ethiopian Army removed the Courts from Somalia, they found a comfy exile in Eritrea.  I just don't understand the government of Eritrea, why they would want to announce to the world that they are friendly with Al-Qaeda.  Obviously this is just another case of, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", and the Eritreans despise the Ethiopians with a venom that is hard to match.  Presently, with Puntland trying to sort itself out, and the Somali government in Moqdishu just trying to get the power back on, the bad guys, who have morphed from the "Islamic Courts Union", to "Al-Shabaab", are doing what they can to cause trouble in Kenya.  Don't be fooled; Al-Shabaab is an unpolished, illiterate, ill-trained version of Al-Qaeda, and they understand the importance of establishing a presence in Kenya.  The unemployment rate in Kenya is so high, I don't think the Kenyan government bothers to log it anymore.  Most young men, at an age when they are supposed to be the most physically productive, are playing soccer in the townships and smoking hash behind the shabeen. The first time I ever saw someone wearing an Osama bin-Laden t-shirt was in Kibera, the huge township that feeds and feeds off of Nairobi.  They are hungry in Mombasa as well, and in Nakuru and Kisumu.  Al-Qaeda has always intended on taking advantage of the squalor and hopelessness of the third world, to recruit and spread its anti-west, anti-glutton message.  But for some reason they have never really succeeded in appealing to the masses.  But Africa, and Kenya in particular, give them an ideal opportunity.  For Al-Qaeda, Somalia is over.  The question is, to relocate the operatives and resources to Sudan and Yemen (and Eritrea), or to make a real push in Kenya. 

In west Africa, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has caused quite a bit of heartburn.  A few years back in Mali, the Tuaregs attempted a bit of a revolution.  These usually non-confrontational, private nomads were having their traditional way of life negatively impacted by the activities of various French oil and mineral exploratory operations.  They complained to the government in Bamako, but the Euro talks, and the Camel walks, so to speak.  So the Tuaregs started a bit of a rebellion.  Almost from the start it was hijacked by AQIM, and before long, the Tuaregs had been basically muscled out of the conflict altogether.  AQIM proved too much for the Malian Army, so Mother France was called, and to make a boring story short, the French military sorted out AQIM in short-order.  In the summer of 2014, when all of west Africa was focused on the anti-Ebola campaign, AQIM popped up again, and this time began attacking targets in Niger.  Fortunately the French military always seems to be available, and it is yet to be determined if AQIM will acquit itself in a more positive way this time around.  Unfortunately, the French can only be in so many places at one time, and AQIM has a habit of attacking Malian military targets, separate from a French military presence.

Boko Haram has been described as "Al-Qaeda in Nigeria", which is not far from the truth.  Originally, Boko Haram was created as a method of educating and providing security for Muslim communities in northern Nigeria.  A change in leadership was instrumental in Boko Haram's evolution into an Islamic extremist group, and they have quickly silenced the Islamic opposition (what there was of it).  I have never considered Al-Qaeda to be overly religiously motivated, but they won't pass an opportunity to hijack a conservative Islamic movement, as they have demonstrated many times.  In reality, I don't think Al-Qaeda has any input into the actions of Boko Haram.  They make a bunch of noise and get a good deal of press, but until Boko Haram takes control of the Nigerian Oil Industry and starts pumping that oil to fill Al-Qaeda's coffers, I don't see the possibility of an Al-Qaeda initiative here (unless the U.S. and Nigerian security is lax and the embassy becomes a target of opportunity).

Africa can be a dangerous place for Americans.  Because of the ease in which a person can cross one border after another, the U.S. Diplomatic Security folks have to always be on their game.  Africa is useful to Al-Qaeda for three reasons: targets of opportunity, training, and recruitment.  We know about the first two, but just how much success have the bad guys had at recruiting operatives in Africa?  Up to now, I think it has been negligible.  But that could change this year.  Keep your eye on Kenya.      

Islamic State Expanding Into North Africa

Link: Islamic State Pushes Into North Africa

For decades, north Africa and the Sahel have always been Al-Qaeda territory, at least as far as butchers and beheaders are concerned.  But as the Islamic State (IS) continues to

exhibit a potent growth rate, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) had better make sure they've collected their dues this month;  the IS is the new extremist bad-boy club on the block, and they intend on co-opting everyone within range of a bullet.  In the link above, I paid particular attention to comments made by Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who believes that we should expect the IS to become more active in north Africa.  Joscelyn is a treasure trove of knowledge regarding events in the Near East, and his real-time analysis is always spot-on.  He is the main reason I am such a devotee of The Long War Journal (www.longwarjournal.org).

So the IS has decided to expand westward.  I'm assuming that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has his own version of Manifest Destiny.  The truth is, the ground is ripe for seeding, especially in the Sudan and Libya.  But lets start in Egypt.  The IS has a variety of scapegoats to drag out in this country, including the traditional whipping boy: the Coptic Christians.  For the life of me I can't fathom how there can be any Christians left in Egypt, let alone Coptic Christians.  They can jump on the "anti-military" bandwagon, but I think that bus is full.  Personally, I don't see the IS finding a receptive audience in Egypt.  I think Morsi was as a religious of a leader as the Egyptian people would like.  Egypt is a country with a modern communications infrastructure.  The people understand the difference between progress and trading in the used Renault for a camel.  I believe the people of Egypt, the vocal young populace in particular, want both a democratic system of government and economic progress.  The IS stands for neither.  On the other hand, Libya is the perfect breeding ground for giant fleas (like the folks we refer to as the IS).  When authority has broken down, and I mean packed up and completely left town, people will look to just about anyone for leadership.  The IS has recently become the governing body for the town of Darna. What the hell is Darna?  It's a start, that's what it is; and the Islamic State will take measures in Darna that will be observed by other communities.  We all know that the Islamic State is well-funded.  All they have to do is feed the people of Darna, maybe get the power turned back on, and keep the muggers and rapists off the streets (and back in the IS camp where they belong).  The IS has used this recipe to co-opt communities in Syria and Iraq, and the formula will work just fine in Libya.  What absolutely amazes me is that western companies are still able to keep their petroleum operations functioning.  I imagine that a huge amount of money is being paid to private security armies, but just how much longer are these operations going to be feasible?  And here comes the IS.  Let Mookie make a prediction.  In roughly six months or less, Libya is going to return to the headlines.  No one wants the IS to take possession of the petroleum set-ups in Libya anymore than the ones they fight for in Baiji, Iraq, where the battle continues on currently.

Let move south to the Sudan.  The government currently sitting in Khartoum would make great badminton partners for al-Baghdadi and his herd.  President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Court in the Hague, loves to send his minions on "Christian

slaughtering" expeditions.  The Sudan (force of habit...I say "the Sudan" and "the Cameroon" and a few other left-over examples of colonial bad manners) is no longer what it used to be.  We now have a South Sudan, but don't ask me who is President, or even the name of the capital city (Juba, maybe?).  I believe that the IS would find a warm welcome in Khartoum, as al-Bashir and al-Baghdadi seem to adhere to the same brand of extreme Islam.  I can't imagine that the IS would stretch its Caliphate map to include the Sudan, and al-Bashir would welcome any opportunity to stick his finger in the eye of the EU and the United States.  Khartoum would be an ideal staging ground for an IS expansion into Chad, Niger and Mali.  The people of Saharan Africa would probably welcome the IS, since no one else seems to give a damn about them.  Mali is already dealing with a re-emergence of AQIM (who, interestingly enough, keep stirring up shit in Niger).  With the west focused almost exclusively on Ebola, and AQIM a shadow of its former self, a bit of a vacuum does exist.  North of Boko Haram in Nigeria, west of Khartoum, and east of Mauritania is where the IS will find its most fertile recruitment locations.  Folks will look at the map and say, "Mookie, have you lost your mind?  The only thing east of Mauritania is the Sahara Desert!"  Believe it or not, people live in that desert.  But its the communities on the very periphery of the Sahara that cause me concern.  A strict form of Islam is enforced, which promotes reliance on family ties and inter-dependence.  In many ways, adherence to strict principles of Islam have helped many of these villages and communities survive.  Al Qaeda had no trouble taking route here, and I can't imagine that the IS will either.  The bunch of filthy rich investors with money in the gold and diamond mines of west Africa had better keep an eye on this potential problem.

Who's At The Door, Ebola or Al-Qaeda?

Links: A. French Troops Battle Terrorists In Northern Mali
           B. France Retaking Its Former Empire

You have to feel for the poor people of Mali.  The country is landlocked and would probably be a complete desert if it weren't for the Niger River.  Mali shares a border with Cote d'Ivoire

which, until recently, allowed Mali access to the second busiest port in West Africa (Dakar being first).  Unfortunately, in 2002 Cote d'Ivoire's turn came up on the African civil war Merry-Go-Round, which split the country between north and south and lasted until 2011.  The conflict has ended and Cote d'Ivoire has recovered in record time. The roads between Mali and Cote d'Ivoire are again full of trucks carrying goods between Bamako, Mali and the port of Abidjan; although, sadly the condition of the roads leaves a lot to be desired.  For roughly a decade Mali was solely dependent upon its road and rail (gulp!) links to the west: namely, Dakar, Senegal.  In 2012, Mali suffered through the Tuareg Rebellion.  The nomadic Tuareg people of northern Mali (Tuaregs are also present in southern Algeria and northern Niger), revolted in reaction to feeling marginalized by the government in Bamako and the mining activity, which they claimed damaged pastoral grazing lands.  It didn't take long for the world's favorite parasite, Al-Qaeda (in this incarnation, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb - AQIM), to join the rebellion alongside the Tuaregs.  Not surprisingly, AQIM quickly pushed the well-meaning Tuareg aside and began to threaten other interests (read: French) further south (which included the occupation of Tombouctou).  The French Army arrived in January 2013 and one month later the issue was resolved.  The French military has always come to a fight ready to win both quickly and completely.  I remember when the United States military carried the same reputation. 

Ibrahim Boubacar Keita,
President of Mali

The Tuareg Rebellion cost Malian President Amadou Toure his job; the transitional military government kept its word and respectably clean elections were held in August 2013.  Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was sworn in on September 4, and he has done a superb job to date.  The Ebola outbreak in Guinea and Liberia brought the attention of the world to west Africa.  Mali has a long border with both Guinea and Liberia, and given the state of Mali's infrastructure (and low international expectations), great concern was expressed that Mali would also suffer an outbreak.  President Keita put national sensitivities aside and asked the United States and Europe to send medical experts.  The International Red Cross (IRC) was already in place, and all necessary authority and support was given by the Malian Ministry of Health to facilitate the education and preparation of both cities and rural communities.  Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) arrived, as did the Center for Disease Control from Atlanta and the World Health Organization (WHO).  Mali already had capable, modern hospitals in Bamako and Sikasso, and the Center for Tuberculosis and AIDS Research (SEFERO).  Screening facilities and Isolation Units were set up at all border crossings and Ports of Entry.  Heeding the request made by President Obama, Mali has kept open its border posts with Liberia and Guinea (despite intense pressure put on President Keita from internal groups).  To date, Mali has registered only one positive case of Ebola, and that was the tragic instance of a now-deceased two-year old child from Guinea who was transported across the border by her grandmother after the death of her mother.  No doubt additional confirmed cases will occur, but all in all, Mali has set an example for other nations (not only third world) to follow when bordering a contagious viral outbreak.

Again, exhibiting a willingness to take advantage of every opportunity, AQIM has made its presence known again.  I've heard it said that after the nuclear apocalypse, the only things left alive will be cock roaches and Cher.  Well, lets add AQIM to the list.  These nasty, parasitic desert rats dug some deep tunnels to escape French and Malian justice, and now the resources of the government are tied up not only in combating the threat of Ebola, but also in trying to build a durable, functioning transportation network to support a growing economy.  Earlier in the year, the Chinese had come around, promising all sorts of goodies.  In fact, China and Mali had negotiated Chinese financial sponsorship of an $11 Billion new railway system to replace the existing rail to Dakar (built in 1884; last real servicing completed in 1924) and to build an entire new railway from Bamako to the port city of Conakry, Guinea.  Sadly, in the last few weeks the Chinese have started to hedge on their commitment, issuing a statement that discussions took place but no obligations were agreed upon.  Bullshit.  The Chinese economy has started to show signs of trouble, which would make reconsideration of expensive foreign projects only routine.  Eleven billion dollars is nothing to the Bank of China, but it could actually change the lives of 15 Million Malians.  What is my interest in this situation?  I love west Africa.  I'm half-French and I truly enjoy the Francophile community.  And everyone, who is willing to do their part, deserves an opportunity.

U.S. Troops Head To Africa To Fight Ebola

Links:  A. 3,000 U.S. Troops To Deploy To West Africa
            B. U.S. Troops To Africa For Ebola Mission
            C. U.S. Military Quarantined After Ebola Trip

I have been finding reasons to avoid writing this post because I'm not very clear on my own

emotions regarding this mission.  In September, when the Ebola virus was tearing a hole through Liberia and Guinea, President Obama anticipated the need for U.S. assistance and ordered the military to respond (I'm assuming that the military and not the President's staff, developed the deployment agenda).  A plan was created which would eventually call for three thousand troops from the 101st Airborne Division to deploy to locations in West Africa (see Links A and B).  The first group of U.S. military personnel, Army Major General Darryl A. Williams and his staff of ten, just completed a tour of Liberia.  During the tour Major General Williams and his crew observed the screening procedures and medical assistance measures in place in all areas of the country.  Its safe to say that they reached some level of exposure to the virus.  As is explained in link C, they will be isolated and monitored for twenty-one days, which is understandable.

As the first link points out, the military will be tasked with building a 25-bed portable hospital in Liberia.  It is expected that 17 treatment centers will eventually be built in the area.  Along with building facilities to treat patients with Ebola, the U.S. military will train up to 500 health-care workers a week to combat the disease.  My friends in the region tell me that currently "you can't throw a stone without hitting a white person".  I assume that many of the white people in question are Americans, as my cousin in Bamako tells me that the Center for Disease Control (CDC) has commandeered the nicest hotel in town.  My close friend, who owns a luxury car business in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, is very impressed with the medical facilities that seem to be popping up all over the country.  Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) is there, and the World Health Organization is too.  The International Red Cross (IRC), which has permanent offices in all the capital cities of the region, has been active from the beginning, and are probably responsible for keeping the number of Ebola cases as low as they are.  In the Spring, with the first confirmed cases, the IRC began sending volunteers out into the rural areas of Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, and Cote d'Ivoire, to stress the need for sanitation and education.  Most importantly, the IRC took note of the local health facilities and what was needed to set-up screening centers and isolation units.  I am impressed with the response to date of the United States and European health communities.  So far the procedures put in place appear to be working.

I have heard it said that the true reason behind President Obama ordering troops to deploy to Africa is to assist in evacuations and crowd control.  I assume "crowd control" would include "riot control".  Orderly crowds being moved by authorities have a tendency to get out of hand in Africa (my comment is not racist; it is the product of my years of living in Africa).  Actually, orderly crowds can become quite "disorderly" anywhere, not just in Africa.  I believe the initial projections by the experts in Atlanta (CDC) forecast that the outbreak would have spread to Mali and Cote d'Ivoire by now.  Given the impossibility of adequately controlling border crossings (sound familiar?), the CDC probably assumed that infected persons who had not yet begun to show symptoms would be traveling as usual.  Keep in mind that many folks see the borders in African as more of a suggestion than anything else.  The valuable gold and diamond mines in

Diamond Mine in Sierra Lione

Mali, and other countries, traditionally employ workers from bordering states.  I believe that the CDC was correct in assuming that the situation would be much more serious than it is, hence the in-depth planning for mandatory evacuations and (if needed) crowd control.  This is in addition to the fact that some people will not voluntarily leave their homes, and in the instance of a deadly virus like Ebola, they cannot be left behind. The issue is not just the health of the resident; anyone who stays in the contamination zone becomes a potential carrier, who may find a way to rejoin healthy people and start the contagion all over.  At this point I haven't bought into the argument that the troops are really here to control people.  I'm not that cynical.  But then see me again next week.   

Still Stuck In Africa...Let's Talk About Liberia And Ebola (Part II)

Links: Wikipedia Liberia
           The U.S. Has An Obligation To Liberia
           Mea Culpa To Dallas From The Liberian President

(Part II)
The second and third links I have chosen deal with the outbreak of Ebola in Liberia (and Guinea).  To get right to the point, when a serious outbreak of a hemorrhagic virus strikes a poor country where most of the population ingests less than one thousand calories a day  the body count can become shockingly high in a matter of days.  The truth is, this outbreak has not yet "exploded", for lack of a better term.  Perhaps this is because Ebola actually isn't that easy to catch, or because the Liberian and Guinean governments (and international organizations) have responded to the outbreak so

effectively.  The answer is most likely a combination of both factors.  On Oct. 15, The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that 4,546 people have died from the Ebola virus with an additional 8,997 confirmed cases.  My source estimates are a bit different: roughly 18,000 cases (although not officially confirmed), mostly in Guinea and Liberia, but also a few in Mali, Sierra Leone, Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal.  I'm told that efforts to isolate the illness in Guinea and Liberia have been outstanding.  The International Red Cross, the WHO, the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC), and Medecins sans Frontieres (Doctors without Borders) have been working closely together and with the local Ministries of Health to provide isolation equipment, protective clothing, detection equipment, and a variety of other essential medical tools.  Even though the number of new cases appear to have plateaued, and wealthy nations are sending specialists and even troops to the region, many experts are concerned that we are only at the beginning of this outbreak.

Five hundred troops of the U.S. 101st Airborne are headed to West Africa.  The French are

already there, and believe me, when the Elysee Palace in Paris got wind of the U.S. deployment, orders were sent to increase the French presence in what was once part of French West Africa (excluding Liberia and Sierra Leone). I am very familiar with this part of the world, and although independence was granted to Mali, Chad, Niger, Senegal, Cote d'Ivoire, and Burkina Faso, a Frenchman is never very far away.  France was much more successful than the Brits in keeping relations pleasant with its former colonies.  It probably had something to do with the fact that the French allowed locally-selected political representation for its colonies in the French House of Deputies, and that France spent a fortune (and continues to do so) standing up and supporting the CFA franc as a currency for its former colonies, and get this, folks...the French treasury guarantees the CFA franc!  Can you imagine the Brits using their precious Sterling to guarantee the Kenyan Shilling

or the Nigerian Dollar?  Back at the ranch...I expect to see the French Foreign Legion deployed to Mali and Cote d'Ivoire in its entirety sometime soon, and the British will have to make their military presence known in Sierra Leone.  The U.S. gets Liberia, as it should.  Too many times in the last century and a half, U.S. administrations have refused to get involved in Liberian problems.  What a shame and what a terrible legacy.  This is one of the few occasions in which I will use the word "shame" and the United States in the same sentence.  Liberia was once a child of the U.S., much like Hawaii (which was a separate Kingdom) and Puerto Rico.  I believe that at one time or another we should have intervened and helped to put things in order.  It wouldn't have taken much because Liberia is a country that is rich in natural resources. However, as is frequently the case in many underdeveloped countries, the Liberian people have rarely seen the benefits from any of its national wealth.

Its certainly not too late to make a difference.  Considering that President Reagan's justification for military intervention and temporary occupation of Grenada was accepted, then without a doubt the United States had the bona fides to involve itself in Liberia's various coups and civil wars.  The flag is almost identical to ours, the towns are named Harper, Fishtown and Greenville, and the original settlers, former American slaves, drew up their original Constitution as a mirror of our own.  Why then did we chose to ignore Liberia for so many years?  Because it is in Africa, over there "somewhere", and didn't figure into our strategic national interests.  Fast-forward to 2014, and Liberia doesn't need a strong-arm presence to re-establish order.  Liberia has an honest, determined, brilliant, popular President who has been dealt the shittiest of hands by fate.  As for the French, U.S., and U.K. troops, their presence is intended to help keep order during evacuations, if such need arises.  So far they have not been needed, although the French contingent in Mali may have its hands full fighting a reborn "Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb" flare-up in the north.  My contact in Bamako, Mali is more concerned with the Al-Qaeda threat than she is Ebola.  The French military (and government) normally never hesitate to act where terrorists are concerned, as they demonstrated in Mali in 2012-2013, so I hope this mess doesn't turn into a two-front issue (Ebola in the south, Al-Qaeda Magreb in the north).  As I sit here at my computer, most of the involved parties are eyeing the border areas between Mali and Guinea/Liberia, and Cote d'Ivoire and Guinea/Liberia.  A number of gold mines exist in the border areas, with a number of mine workers coming from the infected countries.  Everyone is sitting on edge, waiting for the first confirmed case in Mali and/or Cote d'Ivoire.  As for the spread of Ebola, I will remain probably the last optimistic person in the U.S.  I expect that the number of cases in Liberia and Guinea will start to decline, so we can put this subject on the back burner, and return to our daily criticism of this administration and how it handles foreign affairs.

Still Stuck In Africa...Let's Talk About Liberia And Ebola (Part I)

Links: Wikipedia Liberia

           The U.S. Has An Obligation To Liberia
           Mea Culpa To Dallas From Liberian President

(Part I)
It's possible that in over two months of writing posts for this blog (I have yet to miss a day), this post may be the most important.

It should be important, especially to Americans.  I'm grateful that Wikipedia is always there to provide a snapshot of Liberian history; most grade school pupils in the United States have never heard of Liberia.  Beginning in 1820, freed slaves from the United States began returning to Africa (Liberia) with the support of various Abolitionist movements, especially the American Colonization Society.  In 1847, with a continual flow of freed slaves from mostly the United States, the Republic of Liberia was created (any slaves who were fortunate enough to be freed en route to the Americas also became Liberians).  The capital city was named Monrovia, in honor of U.S. President James Monroe, a strong advocate of the colonization of Liberia.  By 1867, roughly 13,000 citizens of the Republic of Liberia were former slaves.  Obviously this territory, located in west central Africa on the Gold Coast, was already inhabited in 1820.  Numerous indigenous tribes dotted the Liberian landscape before the arrival of the first settlers from the United States.  The former slaves and their descendants never accounted for more than five percent of the entire population of Liberia, but they immediately assumed the mantle of superiority.  The indigenous population were treated as savages and for almost a century were not considered actual citizens of Liberia.

In truth, the American Colonization Society (ACS), which was supported by both President Abraham Lincoln and Orator/Senator Henry Clay, believed that repatriation of former slaves to Africa was preferable to emancipation (freedom) within the United States.  Some in the organization were concerned about the difficulties former slaves would encounter after emancipation, while others felt it was in the best interest of both whites and blacks that they be returned to Africa.  However, it's important to keep in mind that by 1860 a large portion, if not the majority, of slaves had been born in the United States, or the Caribbean, rather than in Africa.

Life Membership Certificate ACS

Either way, on July 26, 1847, the settlers in Liberia issued a Declaration of Independence and promulgated a Constitution.  Not surprisingly, the Liberian Constitution bore a close resemblance to the Constitution of the United States.  The new nation suffered tremendous growing pains, as a small population of western-minded and Christian former slaves attempted to establish their authority over the indigenous inland tribes.  The government of Liberia (elected solely by male settlers) outlawed commerce between foreign nations and inland tribes.  A serious attempt was made to funnel all economic activity of Liberia to the capital city of Monrovia and through its port (a few other towns had sprung up, including Buchanan).  Development was very slow, and towards the turn of the century, France and England started exerting their authority over areas once claimed by Liberia.  In fact, The European nations were responsible for the boußndaries that today constitute the border of the Republic of Liberia.  With no army and no real diplomatic authority, Liberia had no choice but to except the demarcations as determined by France and England, which left Liberia with an English colony on its northwest border and a huge French-controlled territory on its northeast and east.

At the beginning of the twentieth century, Liberia had very little to show for is fifty years of existence.  It was believed by most that the end of the Civil War would result in a huge wave of immigrants from the former slave population in the southern United States. 

For various reasons, that flood of new settler blood never really occurred.  In 1904 the Liberian government finally granted citizenship to all Liberians, but many indigenous tribes continued to oppose efforts at development.  In the mid-twentieth century, the United States became more involved in Liberia, with the construction of Roberts International Airport and new port facilities for Monrovia.  In 1945, Liberia became one of the original members of the United Nations, and was one of the first countries to openly oppose the Apartheid policies of the South African government.  Growth was slow and incremental, but progress was being made.  Rubber and Timber were being exported, and diamonds along with other precious metals and gems were discovered.  The soil appeared to be perfect for creating a fruit-based export avenue, and Liberia's history and the coastal areas seemed ideal for establishing a tourist industry.  In 1979, the economy was healthy and jobs were being created.  Unfortunately, a military coup was staged, led by Master Sergeant Samuel K. Doe of the Krahn ethnic group.  Doe and his supporters accused then-President William R. Tolbert, Jr. of corruption and of giving preferential treatment to particular tribes to the detriment of others.  Tolbert and most of his cabinet were executed, along with many members of his political party; his family barely escaped Monrovia with their lives.

From 1980 until internationally-monitored elections in 2005, Liberia was literally hell-on earth.  Liberia suffered one coup after another, with each new government more despotic and violent than the previous one.  (If someone is interested in the details of the coups and the attempts at new governments, then Google is your answer.)  In fact, after 2000, it seemed the entire region was engulfed in war.  A horrendous Civil War swallowed Sierra Leone whole and created an entire generation of victims with missing limbs (instead of killing the enemy, it became habitual to just hack off a limb).  And the various mines planted everywhere rang up a high limb-count as well.  And to my surprise, even traditionally stable Cote d'Ivoire, with its French patisseries and tree-lined boulevards, fell victim to civil strife.  I'm so pleased to say that since 2005, a sea-change has occurred.  Peace in Sierra Leone, a new government and peace in Cote d'Ivoire, and a brilliant, no-nonsense President in Liberia.

  Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, a Harvard-trained economist with a sparking reputation, took office with a tremendous display of energy and confidence.  The Liberian people immediately responded, and since then growth has been the word for a new generation of Liberians.  The western banks and governments love Sirleaf, and she has done wonders battling that eternal, always-present beast of African governance: corruption.  She has surrounded herself with gifted individuals and everyday makes a point to go into the street and communicate with the people.
Johnson was re-elected in 2011 and is, in my opinion, personally responsible for convincing international banks and governments to write-off billions and billions of dollars of Liberian debt.  This has allowed the Liberian government more freedom of movement regarding development projects and education.  I'm sure that Sirleaf has political opposition in Liberia and that some may accuse me of being a Sirleaf sycophant (I like the way that sounds).  Well, guilty as charged.  I love what this woman has done to strengthen and give hope to the faultering country, and I pray that the Ebola crisis doesn't destroy all that she has worked to build.

Where In The Hell Is Timbuktu?

Links: UNESCO Link Provides Great Info On Timbuktu
           Goundam Mosque

Although this post does not directly relate to any of the hot spots we have been discussing lately, I've been thinking about Mali and decided to share the story of my first trip to Timbuktu (the correct spelling is Tombouctou, but this is one of the rare occasions when I will stick with what is most familiar).  When I was twenty-three years old and working in Southern Africa (1990), my employer instructed me to travel to Mali for a weekend-long African Union seminar.  I had read a book or two about Mali, and I assumed that French was the most common language.  I'd been anticipating a trip to Timbuktu since my eighth birthday when I had asked for and received a globe.  Between the globe and a well-used Rand McNally atlas, I spent many hours on a flying carpet in my mind's eye, traveling from one exotic location to the next.  Mali was a routine stop for me, only because it is home to Timbuktu.  I don't know how the town of Timbuktu became a part of the English language lexicon, but as a child I remember referring to anything that was very remote and/or unknown as "Timbuktu".  Also, at the age of nine, I read a story about the French Foreign Legion that included a description of Timbuktu.  It may have been remote, and it may have been mysterious, but it was real enough to end up on my globe.  So before I'd even hit puberty, a trip to Timbuktu was in my destiny.

I flew Air France into Bamako, and as we approached the runway, I had a view of the most amazing panorama.  It was a cloudless early afternoon, and the brown crease of the horizon separated the brilliant blue sky from the ground, which was made up of thousands of different shades of beige and brown.  It was my first real view of a desert, although Bamako itself hugs the Niger River, which allows for splashes of green around every corner.  it was early Spring, and although the temperature was consistently in triple digits, I did not find the heat overly oppressive.  Mali is one of many African countries that introduces itself when you first depart the plane with both a smell and a taste.  When the cabin door opened and I took my first full breath of "L'air Du Mali", I was immediately taken by the freshness and clear quality of the air (it reminded me of El Paso, Texas).  Senou International Airport did not have gangway service at that time, so the passengers departed the plane on the tarmac and walked the short distance to the terminal.  I took a taxi from the airport to the Sofitel Hotel, and after a boring seminar, I decided to take my rented Land Rover on a trek.  It wasn't a flying carpet, but the Land Rover would do just fine as I started my 1,000 kilometer (600mi) trek to Timbuktu.

The drive seemed interminably long, and the roads were abysmal. 

I saw many small cars negotiating potholes twice their size and three times as deep.  The one fortunate aspect of the drive, is I discovered the historic and ancient town of Goundam.  I actually stayed the first night in Goundam before driving on to Timbuktu, and I was lucky enough to find a small hotel which catered to French government and NGO types.  It was run by an older French couple from Limoges and the food and company were terrific (for the life of me I can't remember the name). Like Timbuktu, the buildings of Goundam all appear to be made of brown mud and brick. Goundam is home to the most breathtaking brown mud and brick mosque: Goundam-Tokossel Mosque.  Its similar to other structures of the same material in Mali, but the mosque is special.  It rises above all others that I've seen in craftsmanship and engineering.

When I arrived in Timbuktu I was a bit disappointed.  I saw plenty of evidence of what the French would call "pauvrete deluxe": lots of poor folks.  The town itself was comprised of very small corridors to walk through, and few larger roads for the odd SUV.  Visitors to Timbuktu are greeted at the entrance by a statue of two kissing camels whose necks stretch across the road.  I was surprised with the number of trees, especially compared to Goundam.  I had hoped to see structures and other evidence that would remind me of the French Foreign Legion visions of my youth, and on that note I wasn't disappointed.  Most of the buildings in Timbuktu are made of the same brown mud-brick composite, and it blends in quite naturally with the desert environment that almost surrounds the city.  Timbuktu is roughly 20 kilometers (12mi) north of the Niger River, which still directly impacts the economy of the locals.  What I discovered on my trip is the origin behind the European cultural use of "Timbuktu" as a synonym for any far-away, mysterious, and isolated destination. Sadly, I did not find enough in the actual Timbuktu to warrant staying a second day. In truth, I had found a clean hotel with running water and flushing toilets in Goundam, and it came with French cooking as well.  When you have spent as much time in Africa as I have, you never look a gift horse in the mouth. So I stayed the day in Timbuktu, drove back to Goundam for the night, and was back in Bamako late the next day.  I enjoyed Bamako very much;  the city had a reasonably sized French ex-pat community and for some reason at the time was full of French soldiers.  I got drunk and made some new friends, and nursed a hangover on my flight home, content that I had fulfilled a curiosity sparked over a decade before.

The Ebola Virus Disease At Its Source

Link: CDC Information On The Ebola Breakout

You know the old expression, "When it rains, it pours"?  I was unable to locate the origin of the expression, but I'm sure its one of the most popular in the English language.  Throw a dart at a map of Africa, and more than likely you will hit a country that is suffering from some event that justifies the use of "when it rains, it pours".  Liberia and Guinea are two nations located on the Gold Coast

(southwest coast) of Africa.  The name Gold Coast refers to the belief that in colonial times the region was rich in Gold deposits.  Other countries on the Gold Coast include Sierra Leone, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria, Togo, Benin, and Cameroon.  At present, the eyes of the world are focused on this part of Africa because of an outbreak of the Ebola virus in Guinea and Liberia.  Both Guinea and Liberia are attempting to rebuild and recover after decades of civil strife.  At one time or another during the same period, Sierra Leone and Cote d'Ivoire were also engaged in civil wars.  Recently, though, a wave of tremendous hope and optimism had been taking hold in west Africa.  Change was the order of the day, highlighted by serious efforts at reconciliation and fraud-free elections.  Aid was pouring in, and Chinese companies seemed to be everywhere, building dams and roads into the jungle.  Serious discussions were taking place which would hopefully result in the elimination of African debt, and there was talk of education, healing, national soccer teams in the World Cup, and creating a tomorrow that is better than today.

And then Ebola shows up to put a wrench into the works.  The Ebola virus is very contagious and has a mortality rate of 90 percent and higher. This particular outbreak first appeared in a small village in Guinea and has now spread to Liberia and Sierra Leone, choosing a target population that is ill-equipped to fight back. The people in this region are the poorest in the world.  The average daily caloric intake as compared to western nations is miniscule (and, for the western nations, shameful).  The body that is healthy is best able to avoid catching the virus, and the body that is healthy is best able to recover from infection.  Simply put, the people of Guinea and Liberia do not eat enough to stand a chance against this virus.  The governments of Liberia and Guinea, in concert with numerous international health organizations, have done a very respectable job limiting the outbreak to particular provinces.  Given the lack of resources available, this fact is impressive.  The best news for all is that for the most part the international community has reacted swiftly and without fear.  To the physicians, nurses, and other health workers who have traveled to Guinea and Liberia, the struggle is not only to limit and smother the outbreak, but to save the lives of those already affected.  During previous outbreaks, persons who had contracted the virus were frequently left to die.  A determination of infection was a death notice, because no one wanted to treat someone who was carrying such a highly contagious and deadly virus.  I'm relieved to say that my contacts in both countries report that persons who have tested positive are treated with respect and humanity, and every effort is being made to help their bodies fight the virus.

Currently, vaccines are being tested in Mali and Cote d'Ivoire.  There has been serious concern (and a bit of panic) that the virus would spread from Guinea and Liberia into Mali and Cote d'Ivoire; as of 12 October 2014, no cases of Ebola have been confirmed in either country.  The World Health Organization (The United Nations) has been highly visible in Bamako, Mali and in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, as has Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders).  The United States Center for Disease Control (CDC) has also made its presence felt.  Finally, the international community is reacting to a health crisis as it should; with resources, manpower and sacrifice.  Earlier today (at Mass, no less), a friend asked me why the international community does not respond to famine and genocide with the same vigor and generosity.  The answer is quite simple.  Famine and genocide are not contagious.  Two million persons at risk from starvation in Eritrea and Ethiopia cannot result in even one case of hunger in the United States.  Warlords slaughtering innocent villagers in Somalia and Sudan does not lead to someone getting shot or stabbed in Copenhagen or Osaka.  In the United States, this current Ebola strain has resulted in the death of one Liberian national in Dallas and the positive infection of a health worker.  The degree of separation gets smaller and smaller, and people realize this.  So smothering this recent outbreak of Ebola at the source makes perfect sense.  The wealthier nations are happy to spend the money, and if locals are cured as well, then all the better.

I'm confident that this particular outbreak of the Ebola virus has reached its peak of infection.  Vaccines have arrived, and people are learning what they must do to avoid contamination. Although 4033 persons have died from this episode, I believe more and more infected persons will recover, as medicine and health care starts to take effect.  West Africa is a hot spot for all sorts of nasty diseases, and I'm optimistic that the current governments in this part of the world will make health education a priority.  The numerous companies involved with mining in Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire and Mali should not suffer too much from the slow down, and hopefully cocoa production will not be affected.  I realize I am being very optimistic, but doesn't it sound more pleasant than the non-stop media cacophony about one person with the flu in Baton Rouge and another person sneezing in Des Moines?  In 1994, Richard Preston wrote a fictional novel called "The Hot Zone", about a hemorrhagic fever outbreak in the United States.  For the longest time, it was all people could talk about.  I'm glad to say that Preston's book remained fictional.  But it did serve as a warning to our various health and disease-related organizations that we had better have a game plan.  I think this Ebola outbreak in West Africa has demonstrated that we do have a plan, both domestically and internationally.  Because we have fifty states and hundreds of international ports-of-entry, mistakes will happen.  But overall, I'm impressed with our response.