Why I Avoid Flying

I remember the days when I would get excited thinking about taking a flight.  The idea that anything could possibly go wrong never entered my mind.  Even as I grew older and started traveling frequently for work, I never minded flying.  When I was still a relatively young man, though, my attitude changed just a bit.  I was living and working in Africa, and it was necessary for me to fly to different countries for projects and seminars.  As I point out in my book, I discovered that Africa is where old planes go to die.  Once a plane has outlived its usefulness in North America and Europe, many times it ends up in Africa.  Let me tell you, Africans know how to keep a plane functional, even if comfort has long since ceased to be a concern.  Aficionados of older planes, including some of the really old prop jobs, can always be found in African airports, taking pictures and marveling at the ancient birds that still manage to reach the clouds.  Whenever I had the opportunity, I chose to fly South African Airways, because in those days, it was a first class airline.  Unfortunately, because of

apartheid, SAA was only allowed to land in Nairobi, and that was for refueling purposes only.  On flights to Europe, SAA was obliged to fly out over the ocean to avoid flying over any African countries and possibly attracting a Mig or a surface-to-air missile.  I remember driving to Gaborone, Botswana, Lusaka, Zambia, and most frequently, Harare, Zimbabwe, to catch flights to other African destinations.  I can't recall ever being overly concerned about the state of the aircraft, although the behavior of some passengers certainly scared the hell out of me.  I remember one occasion when a gentleman attempted to start a fire on the plane, in order to cook his dinner.  I never did find out what victuals he had in mind.  On another occasion, in Entebbe, Uganda, I watched the pilot and co-pilot come on board wearing parachutes.  None of the passengers had parachutes, but for some reason, we all seemed just fine.  Sometimes in Africa, you have to adapt to your surroundings, and do as the locals do.  Most Africans I knew believed in pre-destiny, so if the plane was going to crash, then there was nothing that could be done to prevent it from happening.

Flight Data Recorder ("Black Box")

Do you remember when a plane crash would result in the search for the black box, which would be listened to by the experts?  The investigators would listen to the black box recordings, form a hypothesis for what caused the accident, and then release the information to the public.  On some occasions, we would get to hear excerpts from the black box recording.  My, how things have changed.  I realize that Malaysian Airlines flight 370 has not been located, so therefore the black boxes are still missing.  But the black boxes for Malaysian Airlines 17 and the Air Asia flight 8501 have been retrieved, and I have no idea what was found on either recording. Why have things changed?  Are we no longer allowed to know what the investigators find on the black box recordings?  What could it be that would cause such secrecy?  With Malaysian Airlines 17, we already know the cause of the disaster, so what else could they be hiding?  Why not release a transcript of the black box recording?  And Air Asia 8501 - we were on pins and needles, waiting for the experts to locate the black boxes and then listen to the recording.  The boxes were found, and the recordings were accessed.  And as far as I know, we have no specific detail regarding the conversation on the box.  Forgive me for my mild paranoia, but why are the choosing to kept the contents of the recordings a secret?

I just doesn't add up.  Too many problems with airliners lately, and no accountability when they start to disappear or get shot down.  I don't have a fear of dying, but I freely admit my desire to avoid "death by plane crash".  The more that we are provided quick explanations for plane mishaps, the better I feel about flying.  But too many plane accidents go unresolved lately for me to feel comfortable flying.  That doesn't mean I won't fly.  I will be flying in February, but I won't be comfortable, that's guaranteed.  Every time I try and discuss this issue with friends, they retreat to the comfortable, stand-by cliché that, "Air travel is much safer than riding in a car".  Heck, that's probably true.  But normally, people get up and walk away from car accidents.  How many people do you know who have walked away from an airliner crash?  Not only does plane travel seem to be a bit less safe as of late, now I have concerns about what the National Transportation Safety Board has been hiding regarding the various black box recordings we haven't been allowed to hear.  And if these issues weren't enough, I fear that sky-terrorism is about to make its presence

PanAm Flt103 in Lockerbie, Scotland
bombed by terrorists in 1988;
Source  UK Gov/Crown 

known...again.  Many of you were too young to remember, but in the 1970s and 1980s, terrorist groups made a habit out of hijacking commercial airliners.  Thankfully, this form of terrorism seemed to go out of style, but something warns me that air travel will be less-safe in 2015 than it has been in years.  So, to be perfectly honest, I'm not really comfortable flying.  I have to make this trip to DC in late February, and I actually considered driving.  But I'm not really gung-ho about driving half-way across the country, a three-day trip, all by myself, especially when the flight is only five hours long.

I have great respect for airline companies and manufacturers, and I also admire commercial pilots.  It's an industry which truly mirrors the growth of our society.  In less-than 120 years, we have moved from the Wright Brothers to the Airbus 380 (which I like to call, "the village with wings").  I don't fault the industry for the recent plane crashes, and I know that companies like Boeing, McDonnell-Douglas and Airbus are constantly looking for ways to increase air travel safety.  But sometimes it's impossible to remove the human factor; in other words, if someone wants something to happen badly enough, then that someone can probably find a way to achieve their goal.  If a terrorist group decides to hijack a plane, I believe human ingenuity will eventually overcome all of the built-it safeguards and security.  I also believe that my reticence about flying can change in a heartbeat, if the news stories about plane crashes become fewer and far between.  At this point, that is where my hope lies.

Sub-Saharan Africa 2015: What To Expect

Link: Brookings Evaluates Sub-Saharan Africa 2015

When I consider the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2015, by habit, I always start with

political considerations.  But Africa has changed, evolving and adjusting to international economic trends much more quickly than I expected.  I don't think we can under-estimate the impact that communication has had on Sub-Saharan Africa.  The relative simplicity and low cost involved with cell phone networks has brought every dark corner of Africa into the light.  I remember the cell phone revolution as it arrived in South Africa.  It seemed as if overnight, everybody had one.  The real-time contact engendered by the presence of cell phone networks as instrumental in getting the continent reasonably wired on the net.  I remember being in Bangui, Central African Republic, sometime in 2001, and suffering from water shortages and no taxis or public transportation.  But the internet café was up and running, thanks to the world's first home-made satellite dish and a motley combination of modern and World War II-era French Army generators.  From my perspective, the arrival of the cell phone ushered in a techno-economic revolution in Africa.  We had BACP (Before the Arrival of the Cell Phone) and AACP (After the Arrival of The Cell Phone).  I think this date-differentiation can be accurately used when examining economic trends in the Middle East and the Indian Sub-Continent.  The cell phone has made that much of a difference, folks.

Africa in 2015 is connected.  Abidjan is connected to Maputo, and Yaoundé is chatting with Tokyo.  Sadly, the last bit of "African mystery" is gone.  An archaeologist can be digging in Mali and be interrupted by a phone call from Dublin.  But in this instance, there can be no doubt that the benefits of technology outweigh the negatives.  African banks and stock markets have real-time communication with the big guys in Europe, Tokyo and New York.  The western investments in oil and mining no longer have to wait for value-impacting information from on-site.  That information is available as it occurs.  Wow.  More so than in many years, I am optimistic for the future of Sub-Saharan Africa.  The days of military coups and brutal dictators seems to be ending.  Africa still suffers from the ass-boil that is Robert Mugabe, but everyone dies eventually, right?  Some folks see Museveni in Uganda as a dictator, and also young Kabila in Kinshasa.  But these guys seem to be out of touch and behind the times.  The world has become so much smaller, and the money to be made in Africa isn't limited to African money.  There is Euro to be made, and Dollars.  The Chinese seem to be all over Africa, but I think we will see a bit less of them in 2015.  I think the trend away from despots and one-party rule will continue, because there is more money to be made in a competitive system, and even the nasty guys will end up chasing the bigger $.

Let's start with China in 2015.  The Chinese started 2014 on a rampage, flying from capital

Dakar Railway Station;  Source: J.W.H. van der WAAL

to capital, promising all sorts of funding for development projects.  In the past, the Chinese have been good on their word.  They have built roads, dams, and blocks of flats.  Everyone, I mean EVERYONE, took notice when the Chinese offered to finance the rebuilding of the Dakar-Niger Railway.  This ambitious and absolutely overdue plan included building an additional rail line, linking Bamako, Mali and Freetown, Sierra Leone.  As things stand at present, the Dakar-Niger Railway is a mess.  It rarely is able to keep to a schedule and its ability to transport is limited.  Any rain or weather-related incident is likely to shut the rail system down for weeks.  The real problem is the lack of repair of the track system.  Why does this issue attract the attention of EVERYONE (as I stated earlier)?  Because this rail system transports the gas that keeps the various mines in Mali and Guinea in operation, not to mention the other materials it transports that are essential to those particular mining operations that basically belong to western investors.  Ideally, Mali should be able to rely on transport of goods in three directions: Dakar, Freetown, and Abidjan.  I have no doubt that in my lifetime I will see this develop.  But the anticipated rebuilding of the Dakar-Niger railway hit a huge snag.  The Chinese went back to Beijing, took out their calculators, met with banking and economic officials, and announced that "they had never actually agreed to finance the project....that it was all just conversation".  In the end, I think the Chinese will realize that the benefits outweigh the cost, and will provide a definite amount of invaluable goodwill. 

Now for some serious conversation.  African countries need to continue the move away from one-commodity economies.  Nigeria, that doesn't mean you continue moving towards being totally dependent on oil, it means to diversify your economy, so that when the price of oil tanks, your economy doesn't crash as well.  Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana have been successful moving away from a reliance on cocoa, as has Mali with cotton and Botswana with Diamonds.  I am concerned about the falling price of oil and its impact on juvenile economies such as Cabo Verde and Equatorial Guinea. I don't really have much sympathy for Nigeria.  They are sitting on a gold mine of resources, and all they can do in Lagos is fight their own cousins for every Dollar, while the nastiest of insurgencies terrorizes and brutalizes children all over the north of the country.  How does a nation with the resources and international connections of Nigeria, not have an army worth a damn?  All this may

Goodluck Jonathan
Source: World Economic Forum

change if Goodluck Jonathan losses the election in February (it ain't gonna happen, folks).  I would be willing to take a chance on the other guy just for the sake of change.  Ebola in 2015: I believe this outbreak of Ebola is winding down, and Africa learned some invaluable lessons on how to respond.  This particular outbreak could have been monstrous.  For Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone, it was.  But the protocols that were put in place and followed worked exactly as expected.  This bodes well for the future.  Unfortunately, West Africa will take some time to climb out of the economic and social disaster that Ebola wrought.  The rest of Africa needs to step up, especially South Africa, who pretends to be a leader, but always seems to be missing at the table during a crisis.  I think China will revisit its commitments, and return with a smile.  The Dakar-Niger project will begin, and positive economic fallout will help with the Ebola recovery.

I think this subject was a bit heavy to tackle in one post, but wither way, as a lover of Africa, I'm looking forward to 2015.  I purposely left South Africa out of the conversation.  They seem to be chugging along just fine down south, on their own schedule and in their own little world.  Zuma had a tough year in 2014, and I anticipate that his enemies are smelling blood, so to speak.  South Africa has always been a bit obsessed with its own identity and importance in the world.  It's sad, because I believe that Nelson Mandela truly wanted South Africa to be the leader of the continent.  Heck, even Nigeria seems to draw more attention from other African states.  South Africa does remain popular for illegal immigration though, as people from all over go searching for jobs and opportunities.  I believe that the fall in the price of oil will be a boost to South Africa, which has always been so sensitive to that commodity.  South Africans have a tendency to worry when the Rand hits a free-fall against the Euro and the Dollar.  They shouldn't.  It directly impacts the all-important tourist industry, not to mention the increasing number of investors from the United States, looking for a good value for their Dollars.

Somalian-based Terrorist Group Al-Shabaab Threat to U.S. Interests in Uganda

Link: Uganda Foils Imminent Al-Shabaab terror Plot


To understand the particular brand of compost that makes up the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab (The Younger), Mookie Baby will have to take a quick trip through history.  Somalia, which occupies the eastern Horn of Africa, was an Italian colony until the end of World War II.  At one time it was home to a sizable Italian population, and would have made a strategic port for the Italian Navy. (Why does the new Italian Navy have glass bottom boats?  So they can look at the old Italian Navy.)  After the war it was administered as a protectorate by the Brits until Independence in 1960.  In 1991 Somalia descended into the nastiest kind of civil war.  In the ten years leading up the civil war, the economy had broken down, the capital Moqdishu was often without power, and the government had become more unpopular and repressive.  When the government finally fell, Somalia collapsed into many separate areas of authority.  A group of Islamic Courts was created to help the people work through conflicts (using Sharia Law, of course).  These Courts eventually started providing aid and healthcare and adopted the name "Islamic Courts Union" (ICU).  The ICU swallowed up weaker authorities and expanded quickly. 

In 1999 the Courts and various affiliated groups merged to create a militia, the ICUP.  At its greatest strength, ICU was in control of Moqdishu and all of south Somalia.  Interestingly enough, a government run by judges is called a "Krytocracy" (thank you, Wikipedia).  From 1999 to 2006, the ICU fought against a variety of different home-grown groups including a number of "Transitional Governments" supported by the Arab League and African Union.  In 2006, with the ICU apparently in control of all of Moqdishu and large parts of Somalia, Ethiopia invaded.  The Ethiopians had no trouble defeating the various militias aligned with the ICU.  A Transitional Federal Government (TFG), supported by Ethiopia, the African Union, and apparently the UN, forced the remaining elements of ICU into the rural areas (although certain sectors of Moqdishu remained in Al-Shabaab control until 2011).  The ICU splintered into a number of groups, including Al-Shabaab, which describes itself as carrying out a jihad against the enemies of Islam, the TRG, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).  Al-Shabaab is known to butcher herds of elephants to raise money from their Ivory, and also collects ransoms from kidnappings.  Internationally, Eritrea (Eritrea's Intelligence Service in particular), has been accused of providing support to Al-Shabaab (Eritrea hates Ethiopia, Ethiopia is at war with Al-Shabaab, therefore Eritrea supports Al-Shabaab; just another verse in the famous tune "the enemy of my enemy is my friend").

After 2006, Al-Shabaab began to resemble a smaller, more tactile terrorist group.  Attacks were conducted against targets in Kenya, especially areas frequented by western tourists.  Starting in 2011, Al-Shabaab began conducting small scale attacks against defenseless targets in Nairobi and also in areas of northeast Kenya.  Hundreds of people were killed.  In December 2013, Al-Shabaab attacked an upscale shopping market in Nairobi (frequented by ex-pats, diplomats, and wealthy Kenyans) and thirty-nine people were killed.  In September 2014, a Drone strike killed Al-Shabaab leader Moktar Ali Zubayr.  Operations by Kenyan police and Special Forces, with assistance from western allies, conducted many successful raids against Al-Shabaab in 2013 and 2014.  It was believed by many that the death of Zubayr spelled the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab.  It might have been wishful thinking, as the link provided above details Ugandan authorities working against a suspected Al-Shabaab operation in Entebbe, Uganda.  In 2012 Al-Shabaab announced a merger with a Somali-based Al-Qaeda group.  Intelligence has also confirmed that Al-Shabaab is in contact with Al-Qaeda In the Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian Islamic fundamentalist group Boko Haram (see previous post on Boko Haram).

It would be unwise to consider Al-Shabaab irrelevant.  In many instances, terrorist groups become more of a threat as they become smaller.  They are able to travel easier and don't require much in the way of resources (although everyone needs an AK-47, a beheading knife, and a bomb or two).  I can imagine the poor folks at CTC in Langley trying to make sense of all these various groups.  One of the reasons they splinter in this manner is to make it difficult for the good guys to stay on top of their game.  It would be much easier to follow and destroy three large terrorist networks, as opposed to the difficulty (and resources needed) to combat over one hundred different groups.  The key is not to get bogged down in the different names and titles.  These people all have the same basic goal, creating chaos and fear through murder and destruction.  They are best confronted as one monster: International Terrorism.

Boko Haram and The Lord's Resistance Army

As the blog evolves I will introduce features that I feel enhance the overall product.  On Mondays I will comment on issues that are a bit distant from the mainstream news.  I did not include any links today because the subject matter can be researched on any variety of sources on the internet, including Wikipedia.  In fact, the information I present will probably not differ with what is available from a simple Google search.  But since this is my blog, and I find both of these groups fascinating, I exercise blogger's prerogative and introduce to you Boko Haram, an Islamic fundamentalist group, and The Lord's Resistance Army, a terror organization that claims adherence to Christian principles.

Boko Haram is a Sunni Islamic Fundamentalist Sect based in northern Nigeria, that advocates strict Sharia Law.  In order to understand the genesis of this organization, a quick review of Nigerian history is necessary. After achieving independence from Great Britain in 1960, Nigeria suffered through a period of confusion as attempts were made to continue the regular functions of a state (as exemplified by the British during colonial rule).  Like most African states, Nigeria is comprised of many different tribes who speak different languages and practice different religions.  Northern Nigeria has always been home to a majority of the nation's Muslim population.  Nigeria itself suffered through a Civil War from 1967 to 1970, as certain eastern states seceded from Nigeria and formed the short-lived state of Biafra.  This fractious, bloody war left behind a distrust throughout Nigeria for the idea of a central government based in Lagos.  Since independence, corruption has always been an issue in Nigerian society, particularly in politics and the military. Many northerners resent the fact that the majority of wealth in Nigeria is centered in the southern states, particularly around Lagos.  Lack of economic development has resulted in great suffering in many northern districts.  A number of Muslim-based groups became involved in providing assistance to those in need.  This assistance was accompanied by an education in fundamentalist Islam.  No one can blame the people of the north from aligning themselves with these groups.  The government was seen as totally corrupt and disinterested in the welfare of the people.
Nigeria suffered through a series of military dictatorships from 1960 until 1999.  The advent of Democracy did little to end the suffering of the northern districts, and a number of the Islamic Fundamentalist groups began to look for a military solution.  Boko Haram (BH) was formed in 2002 by Mohammed Yusuf.  The group did not declare itself in open rebellion until 2009.  Yusuf was arrested and died in police custody.  He was succeeded by his first lieutenant Abubakar Shakau.  The name "Boko Haram" is translated as "Western Education is Forbidden".  BH has never been a large movement, but has many supporters throughout the Muslim north of Nigeria.  The group states that its goal is the creation of an Islamic State under Sharia Law in Nigeria (not just in northern Nigeria).  BH has been able to purchase arms and supplies through a campaign of bank robberies and kidnappings/ransoms.  BH traditionally moves  in small units, and is intent on consolidating it hold on the northern districts of Nigeria through fear and intimidation.  As kidnappings and aggressive actions have become common, BH lost much of its support from northern Nigerians.  But the Nigerian Army, which is obliged to defend Nigerian citizens from terrorist groups, commands no respect whatsoever.  The Army has conducted repeated military operations against BH, not only to free hostages but to damage the organization to the point of ineffectiveness.  But every military effort has met with either limited success (whatever territory cleared of BH was quickly reoccupied immediately following the Army's departure) or complete failure.  The problems within the Nigerian military stem from a culture of corruption and a complete lack of discipline.  Although the Nigerian Parliament votes substantial funds for the military in every budget, most of that money is skimmed off and into the pockets of one military official or another (or politician).  Sometimes troops go extended periods of time with no pay, and weapons are carried w/o ammunition.
The recent kidnapping of hundreds of young girls by BH brought the problem to the international stage for a limited period of time.  The Nigerian Army has vowed to rescue the girls and a number of operations have been conducted.  But the story seems to have fallen from even the last page of western newspapers, and the parents of the missing girls are left with little hope.  At one time the Nigerian military was respected and trusted by the people.  But the issue of corruption in Nigeria goes far beyond the military. Most Nigerians are honest, hard-working folks who deserve an honest, representative government that does not utilize Sharia Law as its system of justice.  Lets hope a leader exists just beyond the horizon who can bring the Nigerian people together regardless of religion and institute a government dedicated to serving the people and fighting corruption at its source.

The Lord's Resistance Army is a quasi-religious movement that many also consider to be a cult.  It was originally based in northern Uganda but has since extended its presence into southern Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC).  During the 1970's Uganda was engulfed in one civil war after another.  The only period of relative calm was the beginning of the Idi Amin Administration, which quickly descended into a quagmire of violence and repression itself.  After Amin's ouster, a number of factions fought for control of Uganda.  The lack of stability and complete ineffectiveness of whatever government sat in Kampala at the time led the people of Uganda to lose faith in centralized government.  The administration of Dr. Milton Obote was rampant with corruption and tribal nepotism.  Obote was overthrown by the current President of Uganda (and sometime darling of the West), Yoweri Museveni, in 1986.  During the strife which brought Museveni to power, another personality was creating a niche for herself in the far north of Uganda.  Her name was Alice Lakwena, and she claimed to be the recipient of messages from The Holy Spirit.  The repeated conflicts had left a vacuum of authority in the north of the country, and Lakwena filled the space with her own particular civil resistance movement.  She was able to raise an Army (by then Lakwena was a self-identified Prophetess who could make her adherents impervious to bullet fire) and after a few surprising initial successes, met defeat at the hands of the regular Ugandan Army at Jinja in 1988.  Her followers dispersed and Lakwena sought asylum in Kenya.  During this time another group of civil resistance fighters was evolving, led by the charismatic Joseph Kony.  Kony was able to rally what remained of Lakwena's forces and set up camp in Acholi tribal land in north Uganda.  Kony immediately established his own "cult-of personality" and led his supporters in acts of violence against government and civilian targets.
Kony and his group, now calling itself "The Lord's Resistance Army" (LRA), decided to copy the methods of the Ugandan Army by forcibly "conscripting" children (kidnapping) into the ranks of the organization.  During the 1990s an occasional story reached the western press about massacres of children who refused to join LRA.  At the time, though, Rwanda was about to descend into genocide and Africa as a whole seemed to be at war with itself.  President Museveni proved to have something no previous Ugandan leader had.....staying power.  Buoyed by a growing economy and a booming capital city, Museveni became the darling of the IMF and the west.  Ugandan elections appeared to be much more free and Democratic than what was routine in sub-Saharan Africa, and Museveni actually kept corruption down to a minimum.  Even the once-proud University of Kampala regained some of its former glory.  But as was the case in Nigeria, the largesse created by the economic good times seldom reached the northern districts.  Nevertheless, the people stayed relatively loyal to the central government, which brought regular retaliation from the LRA.
Eventually, a well-funded and organized military operation pushed the LRA out of Uganda and into Southern Sudan.  In return for support against Christian elements in southern Sudan, the Muslim-fundamentalist government in Khartoum agreed to assist the LRA.  The LRA set up shop in the border region between Sudan and Uganda, and indiscriminately raided settlements on both sides of the border. Eventually the LRA became active in the never-ending conflict in eastern DROC, attacking a Catholic Church-sponsored concert, killing 143 and kidnapping 180 in 2008.
Some of the real mysteries surrounding the LRA are its motivations and aspirations.  In the beginning, the struggle was couched as an effort to redistribute Uganda's wealth more evenly, instead of allowing the south to grow richer and richer.  Since the turn of the century, Kony has become more and more of a cult figure to his followers.  He is seen less and less, but will occasionally make an appearance in order to remind us all that hes still alive.  The LRA continues to be a thorn in the side of the Museveni government, but their lack of resources and adequate supply mechanism has diminished their ability to create havoc. But for the poor, suffering Acholi of northern Uganda, the LRA remains the greatest threat to peace and stability. The big questions remains...what does Kony want?