political considerations. But Africa has changed, evolving and adjusting to international economic trends much more quickly than I expected. I don't think we can under-estimate the impact that communication has had on Sub-Saharan Africa. The relative simplicity and low cost involved with cell phone networks has brought every dark corner of Africa into the light. I remember the cell phone revolution as it arrived in South Africa. It seemed as if overnight, everybody had one. The real-time contact engendered by the presence of cell phone networks as instrumental in getting the continent reasonably wired on the net. I remember being in Bangui, Central African Republic, sometime in 2001, and suffering from water shortages and no taxis or public transportation. But the internet café was up and running, thanks to the world's first home-made satellite dish and a motley combination of modern and World War II-era French Army generators. From my perspective, the arrival of the cell phone ushered in a techno-economic revolution in Africa. We had BACP (Before the Arrival of the Cell Phone) and AACP (After the Arrival of The Cell Phone). I think this date-differentiation can be accurately used when examining economic trends in the Middle East and the Indian Sub-Continent. The cell phone has made that much of a difference, folks.
Africa in 2015 is connected. Abidjan is connected to Maputo, and Yaoundé is chatting with Tokyo. Sadly, the last bit of "African mystery" is gone. An archaeologist can be digging in Mali and be interrupted by a phone call from Dublin. But in this instance, there can be no doubt that the benefits of technology outweigh the negatives. African banks and stock markets have real-time communication with the big guys in Europe, Tokyo and New York. The western investments in oil and mining no longer have to wait for value-impacting information from on-site. That information is available as it occurs. Wow. More so than in many years, I am optimistic for the future of Sub-Saharan Africa. The days of military coups and brutal dictators seems to be ending. Africa still suffers from the ass-boil that is Robert Mugabe, but everyone dies eventually, right? Some folks see Museveni in Uganda as a dictator, and also young Kabila in Kinshasa. But these guys seem to be out of touch and behind the times. The world has become so much smaller, and the money to be made in Africa isn't limited to African money. There is Euro to be made, and Dollars. The Chinese seem to be all over Africa, but I think we will see a bit less of them in 2015. I think the trend away from despots and one-party rule will continue, because there is more money to be made in a competitive system, and even the nasty guys will end up chasing the bigger $.
Let's start with China in 2015. The Chinese started 2014 on a rampage, flying from capital
Dakar Railway Station; Source: J.W.H. van der WAAL |
Now for some serious conversation. African countries need to continue the move away from one-commodity economies. Nigeria, that doesn't mean you continue moving towards being totally dependent on oil, it means to diversify your economy, so that when the price of oil tanks, your economy doesn't crash as well. Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana have been successful moving away from a reliance on cocoa, as has Mali with cotton and Botswana with Diamonds. I am concerned about the falling price of oil and its impact on juvenile economies such as Cabo Verde and Equatorial Guinea. I don't really have much sympathy for Nigeria. They are sitting on a gold mine of resources, and all they can do in Lagos is fight their own cousins for every Dollar, while the nastiest of insurgencies terrorizes and brutalizes children all over the north of the country. How does a nation with the resources and international connections of Nigeria, not have an army worth a damn? All this may
Goodluck Jonathan Source: World Economic Forum |
I think this subject was a bit heavy to tackle in one post, but wither way, as a lover of Africa, I'm looking forward to 2015. I purposely left South Africa out of the conversation. They seem to be chugging along just fine down south, on their own schedule and in their own little world. Zuma had a tough year in 2014, and I anticipate that his enemies are smelling blood, so to speak. South Africa has always been a bit obsessed with its own identity and importance in the world. It's sad, because I believe that Nelson Mandela truly wanted South Africa to be the leader of the continent. Heck, even Nigeria seems to draw more attention from other African states. South Africa does remain popular for illegal immigration though, as people from all over go searching for jobs and opportunities. I believe that the fall in the price of oil will be a boost to South Africa, which has always been so sensitive to that commodity. South Africans have a tendency to worry when the Rand hits a free-fall against the Euro and the Dollar. They shouldn't. It directly impacts the all-important tourist industry, not to mention the increasing number of investors from the United States, looking for a good value for their Dollars.
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