Link: American Kayla Mueller assaulted by al-Baghdadi.
Recently, while walking through a University campus in Austin, Texas, I stumbled upon an anti-military demonstration involving students. The students were protesting a number of issues, including the presence of the ROTC program in public schools and the U.S. intelligence community's ongoing efforts to combat Islamic terrorism. One young man with an opposing perspective was engaging the protesters in a polite discussion of the issues, so I stood around on the periphery and listened. After roughly twenty minutes, I moved on to my appointment. Honestly, I didn't hear anything new from either side. But I continue to be amazed at the level of ignorance demonstrated by so many university-level young people today. These thirty to forty protesters were arguing that the actions of the United States, both past and present, were the root cause of the violence committed by Al-Qaeda, ISIS, El Sendero Luminoso, Abu Sayyaf, Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and all the rest. According to these scholars of American history, the United States had a pattern of aggressively exporting its own ideology to foreign lands, sometimes at the end of a gun barrel, and that we were reaping the fruits of prior Administration's efforts at economic colonialism. What is "economic colonialism" as opposed to regular, ol' colonialism? Economic colonialism occurs when the modern and wealthy nation with a huge military forces the smaller, developing country to welcome American business and companies. Before you can say "Dole Pineapples and Bananas", these powerful American companies were exploiting the natural resources of the smaller nation and misusing its labor force. In Bolivia, we supported the silver mines, which introduced child labor and chronic pulmonary illnesses in the local community. In Colombia, Bolivia and Peru, our drug-addicted society forced these developing economies to become dependent upon exporting cocaine, until one day we changed our mind and demanded that the governments put the cocoa farmers in jail and burn their crops. We all know about the poppy fields in Afghanistan, and of course our support of Israel has kept the Arab community from having any chance whatsoever of thriving. Therefore, its no wonder that the terrorists want to kill us.
I am nobody's apologist, and this blog is not designed to tackle the heavy subject of "American Economic Imperialism". I do believe, however, that any debt owed by the United States, has been paid in great excess by the blood sacrificed to rid the world of German, Italian and Japanese fascism. I will also point out the tremendously positive impact of the technological advances pioneered by the United States, and the regular massive amount of international financial aid the is distributed in U.S. Dollars. It has also been American intellect, ingenuity and money that put a man on the moon and a spacecraft traveling to the very edge of our own galaxy. But this counts for nothing in the minds of certain people. They exist solely to search for communal guilt in one form or another. What really disturbs me is how out-of-touch so many young people are in the United States in Europe, when it comes to the inhuman and criminal actions of ISIS. In fact, the under-20 years old generation doesn't remember the events of September 11, 2001, when almost three thousand innocent Americans were incinerated by terrorists no-doubt avenging some "wrong" committed against them by the United States. I can forgive young people for not remembering 9-11, but all you need to do is turn on the news to get a dose of what has to be the most heinous displays of beheadings and executions that I have ever witnessed in my lifetime. Everyday, the media wing of ISIS gets to work on its latest batch of video releases to the appalled but voyeuristic western nations. The cancer that grew from the ashes of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, pretends to be a political movement in search of an Islamic Caliphate. In truth, it is a killing machine, that has learned how to turn subjugation and torture into an art form. These people don't represent some "offended" or "abused" community; they exist to spread their brand of vile Islamic extremism to the entire world, not just the Levant. If ISIS were only interested in the Levant, then why are they in Africa, and in Yemen, and Indonesia and the Philippines? These students who were "ashamed" that our Air Force was leading the allied air coalition against ISIS, would be the first to lose their heads if ISIS had their way. But not until they had been tortured as victimized in ways that until now were unknown to our species.
Apologists for terrorism love to compare the actions of Islamic Extremists to the Inquisition conducted by the Catholic Church so many centuries ago, and to the Crusades that were organized and financed for the purpose of keeping Jerusalem and its environs in the hands of Christians, not Muslims. History is replete with examples of religious conflict in the Christian community. But the point is, we make the point to leave that barbarity in the past, and respect our fellow man's religious choices. ISIS is attempting to take us back to the middle ages, when people were executed for their religious persuasion. But lest you start to think that ISIS' motivation has to do with expanding the teachings of the Prophet, take a look at some of the extra curricular activities of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his flock of Himmlers and Heydrichs. Anyone accused of homosexual activity will be tortured and executed, many times bring thrown from the roof of buildings. Single pregnant females are also subject to execution. All the while, al-Baghdadi and his thugs ignore all the basic tenets of Islam. Both male and female prisoners and hostages are routinely raped, and the hashish pipe has been known to make an appearance or two during down time. Any bit of luxury that can be obtained out in the middle of the Syrian desert, has found its way to al-Baghdadi's quarters. The money that is raised to support ISIS comes from a variety of sources, including oil. But is also comes from the smuggling of both women (girls, actually) and merchandise. And there is nothing in the Koran about the continual mass-executions of thousands of innocent people. There is no forgiveness with ISIS, or the opportunity for repentance, which is a major pillar of the Koran and Islam.
So if they really aren't representing Islam, then who are they? ISIS is evil incarnate, my friends. No matter how many years you have on this earth, you will never see anything so black and devoid of compassion and goodness. I have so much empathy for the Jewish survivors of the Holocaust, who have lived long enough to see the emergence of something worse. The people who are driving the bus, al-Baghdadi and his supporters, want to see you and your entire family dead. I'm taking this threat seriously, but is the Obama Administration? Not by a longshot. Its all about politics, and President Obama is strictly in "Legacy Mode" right now. He's gearing up for his last, great use of Executive Action. Before he leaves office, he will sign into law an Amnesty plan that allows the roughly twenty million ethnic Mexican illegal aliens living in the United States, the opportunity to become citizens. Not Resident Aliens. And why not? Because Green Card Holders can't vote. President Obama's lasting legacy will be his attempt to turn the United States into a one-party state. So ISIS has kinda fallen off the radar. Just let Hillary deal with it.
Showing posts with label Al-Shabaab. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Al-Shabaab. Show all posts
Sunday, August 16, 2015
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Why should the West be concerned with the intentions of the Islamic State in Africa? (Part II)
Links: A. ISIS supporting Al-Shabaab in Africa?
B. ISIS eager to recruit South Africans.
In Part II we will focus on the Islamic State (IS) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Muslim states of West Africa are vitally important, because they will discreetly provide financial and material support to Islamic extremist groups, while publicly disavowing any involvement or knowledge of these organizations.
Mauritania. To start, Mauritania is a bit of a mystery. The government gives the appearance of being deeply observant of all Islamic Laws and traditions. At the same time, Mauritania has steered a very moderate course diplomatically, snuggling up to France in particular. In truth, Mauritania is a lightly-populated country that consists almost exclusively of SAND. Eventually, the engineers and researchers will find oil in Mauritania, mark my word.
Al-Qaeda in the Magreb. Al-Qaeda remains active in West Africa, in Mali and Niger in particular. In 2013, Al-Qaeda more-or-less surprised everyone by hopping the coat tails of a Tuareg insurrection in northern Mali. The Tuaregs, who had made repeated complaints to the government in Bamako, were suffering from private French companies occupying oases and disturbing traditional Tuareg trading patterns. The Tuaregs felt that they had no choice but to take up arms, at least long enough to attract the European press. But before you can say, "Camel Fart", Al-Qaeda had hijacked the Tuaregs little rebellion. The Tuaregs quickly faded away, but Al-Qaeda in the Magreb (AQM) meant business, attacking Malian military and government installations as far south as Timbuktu. In steps the French, who roll up AQM in record time (not many prisoners taken, from what I understand). In the Fall of 2014, AQM, taking advantage of a government focused exclusively on combating Ebola, popped back up in northern Mali. And this time, they were better armed and willing to involve others. AQM repeatedly crossed the border into Niger and conducted raids against simple villages, along with the usual attacks against government and civilian targets in Mali. Again, the French military has arrived on the scene, and I expect and even more thorough accounting of AQM. I can hear you now, asking, "why all this AQM bullshit when the post is supposed to be about the IS"? The answer is simple; the post is about the IS. Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are, for all practical purposes, the same organization. They are both Sunni-based, violent, terrorist groups dedicated to the removal of infidels from their "Holy Land". They communicate with each other, they assist one another, and they play-up the western media's insistence on separating the two. As always, this is only my opinion. Come see me in a year and remind me how wrong I was.
Al-Shabaab. One fact that is not debatable is that the IS was born into the Al-Qaeda family. In its former life, it was known as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq". After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as the leader of the organization, and a new name, "the Islamic State in the Sham" (ISIS) was chosen. Folks, I'm leaving out all sorts of important background to the genesis of IS, but this post has to stay within reasonable limits. Al-Baghdadi really began to make the IS about himself, and let it be known to Al-Qaeda head Ayman Al-Zawahiri, that IS was able to function on its own. Now this is as close to a complete rift with Al-Qaeda as ever occurred. Zawahiri didn't have much to bitch about because the IS was kicking ass and taking names all over Iraq and Syria. More recently, as the organization stretches its legs a bit, relationships have been established with like-minded Sunni extremist groups around the world, including Africa. Al-Shabaab, that nasty bunch of turds that tried to turn Somalia into an Islamic State ruled by Islamic Courts (sounds wonderful, doesn't it?), have established themselves in the townships of Kenya, which are ripe recruitment areas. Social Media is the master at bringing people together, and the IS and Al-Shabaab have been expressing support for one another for some time. These two groups need each other. Al-Shabaab needs the organizational skills, the discipline, and the funding of the IS, and the IS needs the geographic reach, and the potential recruitment opportunities available to Al-Shabaab. They are both Sunni based, therefore there will be no trouble finding ideological (read: idiot-logical) common ground. Al-Shabaab has established a presence as far south as South Africa and as far west as Namibia.
Boko Haram. Ehen the Nigerian based terrorist organization, "Boko Haram", announced its support for the IS, the news was treated as a truly important development. During the same week, the combined military forces of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Benin inflicted defeat after defeat on Boko Haram, who was now only in control of four northern communities (from twenty just the week before). It was no surprise that Boko Haram (BH) wanted to change the headline, and the press obliged. The poor Nigerian Army; after months of getting raked over the coals by the domestic and international press, they finally have a very successful strong of victories, and they get upstaged by BH's announcement of love for the IS. The truth is, even though BH has very recently received a black eye and a bloody nose, this organization is built similar to the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, and it is more than able to retreat into the jungle and reconstitute itself. I find BH to be the most dangerous terrorist group on the continent, and that includes north Africa. Anyone engaged against BH needs to be familiar with its history, as BH is very loyal to its founding principles and the accompanying religious ideology. The organization was originally established in support of providing Islamic education in northern Nigerian schools. At the time, there was a need for a bit of a "siege mentality", as the Islamic community in Nigeria had many opponents. Through concentration of resources and discipline, the Islamic community in northern Nigeria was able to effectively establish a network of Islamic schools. As is often the case, this well-meaning effort got out of hand. BH quickly morphed into a organization that allowed no disagreement and enforced the strictest of Islamic codes. Instead of living peacefully with the Christian community, BH made every effort to either drive them off or convert their children. When it became apparent that the Nigerian authorities were either unwilling or unable to respond, BH began large-scale forced conversions. Instead of focusing on education, BH became a para-military organization, bent on proselytizing extremist Islam. At the zenith of its reach, BH was smart enough to reach out to other like-minded organizations, which will provide a lifeline, if the Nigerian military is successful in forcing BH out of Nigeria. BH is present in Ghana, in Cote d'Ivoire, and in the Cameroon. Many of his soldiers are "brainwashed" teens, some not much older than ten, eleven years of age. In many cases, these young fighters are the most dedicated. I won't mention the fate of the young girls that are randomly kidnapped. Suffice to say that the lucky ones are forced into sometimes plural marriages with men usually many years older.
Because of the growing population rate in sub-Saharan Africa, the pressure on the various national economies will only increase. At the moment, even the most optimistic economies like South Africa, Nigeria, Namibia, Botswana, Gabon and Ghana, have unemployment rates for post-high school males as high as forty percent. This group of unemployed, bored, many times hungry, unable to afford university fees, young men are the perfect targets for the IS. Since the Islamic faith has done such an outstanding job introducing Islam to poorer African communities, many of these young men are already halfway home.
B. ISIS eager to recruit South Africans.
In Part II we will focus on the Islamic State (IS) in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Muslim states of West Africa are vitally important, because they will discreetly provide financial and material support to Islamic extremist groups, while publicly disavowing any involvement or knowledge of these organizations.
Mauritania. To start, Mauritania is a bit of a mystery. The government gives the appearance of being deeply observant of all Islamic Laws and traditions. At the same time, Mauritania has steered a very moderate course diplomatically, snuggling up to France in particular. In truth, Mauritania is a lightly-populated country that consists almost exclusively of SAND. Eventually, the engineers and researchers will find oil in Mauritania, mark my word.
Al-Qaeda in the Magreb. Al-Qaeda remains active in West Africa, in Mali and Niger in particular. In 2013, Al-Qaeda more-or-less surprised everyone by hopping the coat tails of a Tuareg insurrection in northern Mali. The Tuaregs, who had made repeated complaints to the government in Bamako, were suffering from private French companies occupying oases and disturbing traditional Tuareg trading patterns. The Tuaregs felt that they had no choice but to take up arms, at least long enough to attract the European press. But before you can say, "Camel Fart", Al-Qaeda had hijacked the Tuaregs little rebellion. The Tuaregs quickly faded away, but Al-Qaeda in the Magreb (AQM) meant business, attacking Malian military and government installations as far south as Timbuktu. In steps the French, who roll up AQM in record time (not many prisoners taken, from what I understand). In the Fall of 2014, AQM, taking advantage of a government focused exclusively on combating Ebola, popped back up in northern Mali. And this time, they were better armed and willing to involve others. AQM repeatedly crossed the border into Niger and conducted raids against simple villages, along with the usual attacks against government and civilian targets in Mali. Again, the French military has arrived on the scene, and I expect and even more thorough accounting of AQM. I can hear you now, asking, "why all this AQM bullshit when the post is supposed to be about the IS"? The answer is simple; the post is about the IS. Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are, for all practical purposes, the same organization. They are both Sunni-based, violent, terrorist groups dedicated to the removal of infidels from their "Holy Land". They communicate with each other, they assist one another, and they play-up the western media's insistence on separating the two. As always, this is only my opinion. Come see me in a year and remind me how wrong I was.
Al-Shabaab. One fact that is not debatable is that the IS was born into the Al-Qaeda family. In its former life, it was known as "Al-Qaeda in Iraq". After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was appointed as the leader of the organization, and a new name, "the Islamic State in the Sham" (ISIS) was chosen. Folks, I'm leaving out all sorts of important background to the genesis of IS, but this post has to stay within reasonable limits. Al-Baghdadi really began to make the IS about himself, and let it be known to Al-Qaeda head Ayman Al-Zawahiri, that IS was able to function on its own. Now this is as close to a complete rift with Al-Qaeda as ever occurred. Zawahiri didn't have much to bitch about because the IS was kicking ass and taking names all over Iraq and Syria. More recently, as the organization stretches its legs a bit, relationships have been established with like-minded Sunni extremist groups around the world, including Africa. Al-Shabaab, that nasty bunch of turds that tried to turn Somalia into an Islamic State ruled by Islamic Courts (sounds wonderful, doesn't it?), have established themselves in the townships of Kenya, which are ripe recruitment areas. Social Media is the master at bringing people together, and the IS and Al-Shabaab have been expressing support for one another for some time. These two groups need each other. Al-Shabaab needs the organizational skills, the discipline, and the funding of the IS, and the IS needs the geographic reach, and the potential recruitment opportunities available to Al-Shabaab. They are both Sunni based, therefore there will be no trouble finding ideological (read: idiot-logical) common ground. Al-Shabaab has established a presence as far south as South Africa and as far west as Namibia.
Boko Haram. Ehen the Nigerian based terrorist organization, "Boko Haram", announced its support for the IS, the news was treated as a truly important development. During the same week, the combined military forces of Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Benin inflicted defeat after defeat on Boko Haram, who was now only in control of four northern communities (from twenty just the week before). It was no surprise that Boko Haram (BH) wanted to change the headline, and the press obliged. The poor Nigerian Army; after months of getting raked over the coals by the domestic and international press, they finally have a very successful strong of victories, and they get upstaged by BH's announcement of love for the IS. The truth is, even though BH has very recently received a black eye and a bloody nose, this organization is built similar to the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda, and it is more than able to retreat into the jungle and reconstitute itself. I find BH to be the most dangerous terrorist group on the continent, and that includes north Africa. Anyone engaged against BH needs to be familiar with its history, as BH is very loyal to its founding principles and the accompanying religious ideology. The organization was originally established in support of providing Islamic education in northern Nigerian schools. At the time, there was a need for a bit of a "siege mentality", as the Islamic community in Nigeria had many opponents. Through concentration of resources and discipline, the Islamic community in northern Nigeria was able to effectively establish a network of Islamic schools. As is often the case, this well-meaning effort got out of hand. BH quickly morphed into a organization that allowed no disagreement and enforced the strictest of Islamic codes. Instead of living peacefully with the Christian community, BH made every effort to either drive them off or convert their children. When it became apparent that the Nigerian authorities were either unwilling or unable to respond, BH began large-scale forced conversions. Instead of focusing on education, BH became a para-military organization, bent on proselytizing extremist Islam. At the zenith of its reach, BH was smart enough to reach out to other like-minded organizations, which will provide a lifeline, if the Nigerian military is successful in forcing BH out of Nigeria. BH is present in Ghana, in Cote d'Ivoire, and in the Cameroon. Many of his soldiers are "brainwashed" teens, some not much older than ten, eleven years of age. In many cases, these young fighters are the most dedicated. I won't mention the fate of the young girls that are randomly kidnapped. Suffice to say that the lucky ones are forced into sometimes plural marriages with men usually many years older.
Because of the growing population rate in sub-Saharan Africa, the pressure on the various national economies will only increase. At the moment, even the most optimistic economies like South Africa, Nigeria, Namibia, Botswana, Gabon and Ghana, have unemployment rates for post-high school males as high as forty percent. This group of unemployed, bored, many times hungry, unable to afford university fees, young men are the perfect targets for the IS. Since the Islamic faith has done such an outstanding job introducing Islam to poorer African communities, many of these young men are already halfway home.
Wednesday, March 4, 2015
Combating The Spread Of Extremism In The Third World (Part II)
Links A. Impact of The Repudiation Of Third World Debt
B. Council On Foreign Relations Comments Regarding Terrorism And Debt
(Part II)
I'm not an economist, though I have followed up on the arguments for and against the dissolution of all foreign debt in Africa. From my simple perspective, I imagine that the elimination of all debt will loosen up capital for job creation, education reform, infrastructure development, hydro-electric projects, and much more. Some individuals more cynical than myself, have argued for conditions on any debt relaxation agreement. The concern is that once the constraints are removed, the inmates will be uncontrollable. And why would that development automatically be considered a negative? We want uncontrolled growth. Granted, certain European and North American commodities might face some unexpected competition in the international marketplace. Another concern is that providing African nations with control of so much of their own revenue (without that revenue automatically disappearing in loan payments) will encourage a return to the days of political despots. The concern being, that if you remind the Africans of just how much wealth they have, that inevitably tribal conflict will return, along with the Idi Amins, Mobutu Sese Sekos, Jean-Bedel Bokassas, and the Robert Mugabes (wait a second....that crazy old rooster is still around, isn't he?). I say, "Racist much?" This type of thinking proceeds on the assumption that congenitally, the blacks of Africa (regardless of tribe, heritage or language), are unable to learn enough from the errors of the recent pass to avoid repeating those mistakes. Having spent a decent amount of time in Africa (by the way, six months living in the leafy Pretoria suburbs of Waterkloof or Brooklyn, shopping at the conveniently located Checkers and Menlyn Park Mall, and dining at Priva Gastrolounge, does not constitute "Africa" in my book), I think the people of this continent are ready for a change. And I don't think they will hesitate to remove anyone who tries to turn back the clock to the days of endemic corruption. The world is much smaller, and our leaders are much more accessible. Africans (especially the younger generation) are ACHING for the opportunity to start with a "Coup de Torchon", a clean slate. Most the these young people don't remember Daniel arap Moi, Kenneth Kaunda, or PW Botha. The amazing advances in communication technology has revolutionized education on our planet. Young people receive lessons in Cultural Geography and Social Studies every time they access the internet on their phone. In the past, the list of options regarding future employment was limited by many factors. Today, young people are beginning to accept the idea that they can achieve anything that they're willing to sacrifice and work for.
One particular argument against eliminating the debt of African nations is that it will discourage lenders from getting involved in Africa. Who wants to make a loan that can be erased twenty years down the road? No doubt Africa needs continued access to loans from wealthy countries, and its easy to understand how this decision could impact African nation's access to international currency. But lets approach this dilemma seriously. If the decision were made to dissolve all debt currently owed by African countries (including to each other), it would be a decision that could only be repeated again by the same group of people/organizations. If there was a legitimate concern that this one isolated decision would create some contagion effect, removing debt from Latin America (I already have a solution for Latin America...just dump everyone's debt into Christina Fernandez Kirchner's bank account) being next on the list, I would oppose this initiative. But as long as rational thought properly influences the decision making process of everyone involved, I believe that a one-time elimination of all African debt, would not create expectations of the same decision being made in other places. No one can convince me that Africa would become "persona non grata" with the international banking community. Companies exist for the sole purpose of negotiating international loan agreements. Personally, I would consider Africa to be one of the safest places to make a loan, if the international community had just agreed to a one-time elimination of all African debt. Certainly that event won't be repeated in our lifetimes, so any new investment would be safe. The idea that African countries would no longer have access to the IMF and the international banking community is bogus. Africa will continue to provide endless opportunities for making money, and plenty companies and organizations looking to make a profit, will line-up to loan money to African nations.
My opinion on this subject has evolved. When I was younger, I had a strong conviction regarding agreements between people. Someone's word, and someone's signature, had to be worth something. I believed that since countries had borrowed (and spent) the money, that they should pay it back. A bit of research later, and I had discovered that many African countries were using new loans to pay the interest on previous loans. Reminds me of me in my younger days. Its all become a bit of a mess. But technology has given Africans new hope for the future. Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Mali, and an encouraging number of other African nations are discovering oil reserves (mostly off the coast). The process of fracking has also started to have an impact on a continent that has always been dependent on energy imports. Once again, thanks to technology, we have confirmed that West Africa is home to more deposits of Gold and Diamonds than previously thought. And I haven't even mentioned all the sensitive metals and minerals that sit under the African soil. If African nations are relieved of the repressive debt obligation, then they would be better-positioned to create their own exploratory companies to access all of this hidden wealth. But some players in the game don't want self-sufficiency in certain market places. They want to locate, dig, retrieve, and sell whatever particular resource of the moment, and pass back to the host nation a modest one-time payment. That is the way it has always been done. An elimination of African debt might just provide the impetus that encourages Mali to explore the north of the nation for oil on its own, not under the foot of a French company. Wouldn't it be something if Guinea and Botswana cleaned and processed diamonds themselves, instead of relying on Dutch and Israeli companies? In truth, I'm getting ahead of myself here. I'm grasping, folks. I'm looking for an opportunity to be excited for the future. With Islamic Extremism expanding so rapidly, I welcome any change of circumstances. Relieving Kenya of its international debt, will allow Nairobi to institute immediate job creation programs in the slums of Kibera. The government of Kenya can win the battle against Al-Shabaab/Al-Qaeda for the hearts and minds of its young people. The same argument can be made in Uganda and Nigeria. Young people will gravitate to a legitimate opportunity to create a successful career, before they will agree to picking up an AK-47 and randomly killing people. Call me foolishly optimistic, but this is what I believe.
The international banking community, including the IMF, should immediately institute a blanket forgiveness of all African debt, to include Mauritania, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and South Sudan.
B. Council On Foreign Relations Comments Regarding Terrorism And Debt
(Part II)
I'm not an economist, though I have followed up on the arguments for and against the dissolution of all foreign debt in Africa. From my simple perspective, I imagine that the elimination of all debt will loosen up capital for job creation, education reform, infrastructure development, hydro-electric projects, and much more. Some individuals more cynical than myself, have argued for conditions on any debt relaxation agreement. The concern is that once the constraints are removed, the inmates will be uncontrollable. And why would that development automatically be considered a negative? We want uncontrolled growth. Granted, certain European and North American commodities might face some unexpected competition in the international marketplace. Another concern is that providing African nations with control of so much of their own revenue (without that revenue automatically disappearing in loan payments) will encourage a return to the days of political despots. The concern being, that if you remind the Africans of just how much wealth they have, that inevitably tribal conflict will return, along with the Idi Amins, Mobutu Sese Sekos, Jean-Bedel Bokassas, and the Robert Mugabes (wait a second....that crazy old rooster is still around, isn't he?). I say, "Racist much?" This type of thinking proceeds on the assumption that congenitally, the blacks of Africa (regardless of tribe, heritage or language), are unable to learn enough from the errors of the recent pass to avoid repeating those mistakes. Having spent a decent amount of time in Africa (by the way, six months living in the leafy Pretoria suburbs of Waterkloof or Brooklyn, shopping at the conveniently located Checkers and Menlyn Park Mall, and dining at Priva Gastrolounge, does not constitute "Africa" in my book), I think the people of this continent are ready for a change. And I don't think they will hesitate to remove anyone who tries to turn back the clock to the days of endemic corruption. The world is much smaller, and our leaders are much more accessible. Africans (especially the younger generation) are ACHING for the opportunity to start with a "Coup de Torchon", a clean slate. Most the these young people don't remember Daniel arap Moi, Kenneth Kaunda, or PW Botha. The amazing advances in communication technology has revolutionized education on our planet. Young people receive lessons in Cultural Geography and Social Studies every time they access the internet on their phone. In the past, the list of options regarding future employment was limited by many factors. Today, young people are beginning to accept the idea that they can achieve anything that they're willing to sacrifice and work for.
One particular argument against eliminating the debt of African nations is that it will discourage lenders from getting involved in Africa. Who wants to make a loan that can be erased twenty years down the road? No doubt Africa needs continued access to loans from wealthy countries, and its easy to understand how this decision could impact African nation's access to international currency. But lets approach this dilemma seriously. If the decision were made to dissolve all debt currently owed by African countries (including to each other), it would be a decision that could only be repeated again by the same group of people/organizations. If there was a legitimate concern that this one isolated decision would create some contagion effect, removing debt from Latin America (I already have a solution for Latin America...just dump everyone's debt into Christina Fernandez Kirchner's bank account) being next on the list, I would oppose this initiative. But as long as rational thought properly influences the decision making process of everyone involved, I believe that a one-time elimination of all African debt, would not create expectations of the same decision being made in other places. No one can convince me that Africa would become "persona non grata" with the international banking community. Companies exist for the sole purpose of negotiating international loan agreements. Personally, I would consider Africa to be one of the safest places to make a loan, if the international community had just agreed to a one-time elimination of all African debt. Certainly that event won't be repeated in our lifetimes, so any new investment would be safe. The idea that African countries would no longer have access to the IMF and the international banking community is bogus. Africa will continue to provide endless opportunities for making money, and plenty companies and organizations looking to make a profit, will line-up to loan money to African nations.
My opinion on this subject has evolved. When I was younger, I had a strong conviction regarding agreements between people. Someone's word, and someone's signature, had to be worth something. I believed that since countries had borrowed (and spent) the money, that they should pay it back. A bit of research later, and I had discovered that many African countries were using new loans to pay the interest on previous loans. Reminds me of me in my younger days. Its all become a bit of a mess. But technology has given Africans new hope for the future. Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome and Principe, Mali, and an encouraging number of other African nations are discovering oil reserves (mostly off the coast). The process of fracking has also started to have an impact on a continent that has always been dependent on energy imports. Once again, thanks to technology, we have confirmed that West Africa is home to more deposits of Gold and Diamonds than previously thought. And I haven't even mentioned all the sensitive metals and minerals that sit under the African soil. If African nations are relieved of the repressive debt obligation, then they would be better-positioned to create their own exploratory companies to access all of this hidden wealth. But some players in the game don't want self-sufficiency in certain market places. They want to locate, dig, retrieve, and sell whatever particular resource of the moment, and pass back to the host nation a modest one-time payment. That is the way it has always been done. An elimination of African debt might just provide the impetus that encourages Mali to explore the north of the nation for oil on its own, not under the foot of a French company. Wouldn't it be something if Guinea and Botswana cleaned and processed diamonds themselves, instead of relying on Dutch and Israeli companies? In truth, I'm getting ahead of myself here. I'm grasping, folks. I'm looking for an opportunity to be excited for the future. With Islamic Extremism expanding so rapidly, I welcome any change of circumstances. Relieving Kenya of its international debt, will allow Nairobi to institute immediate job creation programs in the slums of Kibera. The government of Kenya can win the battle against Al-Shabaab/Al-Qaeda for the hearts and minds of its young people. The same argument can be made in Uganda and Nigeria. Young people will gravitate to a legitimate opportunity to create a successful career, before they will agree to picking up an AK-47 and randomly killing people. Call me foolishly optimistic, but this is what I believe.
The international banking community, including the IMF, should immediately institute a blanket forgiveness of all African debt, to include Mauritania, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and South Sudan.
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Al-Qaeda In Africa
Link: A. Al-Qaeda Presence In African Countries
(Today's post is the first in a four-part series to begin 2015. This series will discuss the current state of affairs for the various Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups around the globe. The next in the series will be the Middle East, followed by Southeast Asia, and concluding with Europe/United States. Somewhere along the line I will throw out a few comments about Al-Qaeda's presence in Latin America, especially as it relates to drug trafficking, smuggling and the tri-borders region.)
When I originally googled "Al-Qaeda" and "Africa", I expected to find a Wikipedia page full of useful dates and details. Have a look at the link so you can share in my disappointment. No matter; Al-Qaeda is so active at present that a review of any international news provider should bear fruit. Surprisingly, the link from Wikipedia doesn't even identify Mali as a location of interest, and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has been stirring the pot in the north of the country for a few years now. But enough criticism of Wikipedia. It is an invaluable resource that I would hate to lose, so follow my example and give them a few dollars whenever they start one of their fund-raising drives. Back to Al-Qaeda and Africa.
Personally, the U.S. Embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 were the first time that I connected the terrorist group Al-Qaeda to the African continent. I was aware of the organization, mainly because I was already employed for an Intelligence Agency, and I was working in a counter-terrorist branch at the time. Having spent some time in Kenya and Tanzania, I was immediately useful, as street maps were spread out over desks and rolled-up, dusty maps were pulled out from behind cabinets. Interestingly enough, I can't remember a time when the group Al-Qaeda was not synonymous with Osama bin-Laden. Even then in the early years pre-9/11, everyone was already referring to the two as inseparable evils, and with good reason. Bin-Laden carried his organization on his back, figuratively and literally. He had spent some time in Afghanistan and trained in the Sudan and Yemen. I can't be sure but I believe the planning for 9/11 was already in place when the embassy bombings occurred. I believe another attack was intended, one involving multiple airliners that were to be hijacked out of Manila, and these three attacks (Kenya, NYC, Manila) were going to deliver a message to the West. The third operation never got off the ground, thank goodness.
Since the 1980s, Al-Qaeda has been active in Africa. When Somalia descended into post Siad-Barre hell, Al-Qaeda positioned itself to become an integral part of the conservative and extremist Islamic Courts Union, which was the de facto government in Moqdishu for a while. Once the African Union and the Ethiopian Army removed the Courts from Somalia, they found a comfy exile in Eritrea. I just don't understand the government of Eritrea, why they would want to announce to the world that they are friendly with Al-Qaeda. Obviously this is just another case of, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", and the Eritreans despise the Ethiopians with a venom that is hard to match. Presently, with Puntland trying to sort itself out, and the Somali government in Moqdishu just trying to get the power back on, the bad guys, who have morphed from the "Islamic Courts Union", to "Al-Shabaab", are doing what they can to cause trouble in Kenya. Don't be fooled; Al-Shabaab is an unpolished, illiterate, ill-trained version of Al-Qaeda, and they understand the importance of establishing a presence in Kenya. The unemployment rate in Kenya is so high, I don't think the Kenyan government bothers to log it anymore. Most young men, at an age when they are supposed to be the most physically productive, are playing soccer in the townships and smoking hash behind the shabeen. The first time I ever saw someone wearing an Osama bin-Laden t-shirt was in Kibera, the huge township that feeds and feeds off of Nairobi. They are hungry in Mombasa as well, and in Nakuru and Kisumu. Al-Qaeda has always intended on taking advantage of the squalor and hopelessness of the third world, to recruit and spread its anti-west, anti-glutton message. But for some reason they have never really succeeded in appealing to the masses. But Africa, and Kenya in particular, give them an ideal opportunity. For Al-Qaeda, Somalia is over. The question is, to relocate the operatives and resources to Sudan and Yemen (and Eritrea), or to make a real push in Kenya.
In west Africa, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has caused quite a bit of heartburn. A few years back in Mali, the Tuaregs attempted a bit of a revolution. These usually non-confrontational, private nomads were having their traditional way of life negatively impacted by the activities of various French oil and mineral exploratory operations. They complained to the government in Bamako, but the Euro talks, and the Camel walks, so to speak. So the Tuaregs started a bit of a rebellion. Almost from the start it was hijacked by AQIM, and before long, the Tuaregs had been basically muscled out of the conflict altogether. AQIM proved too much for the Malian Army, so Mother France was called, and to make a boring story short, the French military sorted out AQIM in short-order. In the summer of 2014, when all of west Africa was focused on the anti-Ebola campaign, AQIM popped up again, and this time began attacking targets in Niger. Fortunately the French military always seems to be available, and it is yet to be determined if AQIM will acquit itself in a more positive way this time around. Unfortunately, the French can only be in so many places at one time, and AQIM has a habit of attacking Malian military targets, separate from a French military presence.
Boko Haram has been described as "Al-Qaeda in Nigeria", which is not far from the truth. Originally, Boko Haram was created as a method of educating and providing security for Muslim communities in northern Nigeria. A change in leadership was instrumental in Boko Haram's evolution into an Islamic extremist group, and they have quickly silenced the Islamic opposition (what there was of it). I have never considered Al-Qaeda to be overly religiously motivated, but they won't pass an opportunity to hijack a conservative Islamic movement, as they have demonstrated many times. In reality, I don't think Al-Qaeda has any input into the actions of Boko Haram. They make a bunch of noise and get a good deal of press, but until Boko Haram takes control of the Nigerian Oil Industry and starts pumping that oil to fill Al-Qaeda's coffers, I don't see the possibility of an Al-Qaeda initiative here (unless the U.S. and Nigerian security is lax and the embassy becomes a target of opportunity).
Africa can be a dangerous place for Americans. Because of the ease in which a person can cross one border after another, the U.S. Diplomatic Security folks have to always be on their game. Africa is useful to Al-Qaeda for three reasons: targets of opportunity, training, and recruitment. We know about the first two, but just how much success have the bad guys had at recruiting operatives in Africa? Up to now, I think it has been negligible. But that could change this year. Keep your eye on Kenya.
(Today's post is the first in a four-part series to begin 2015. This series will discuss the current state of affairs for the various Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups around the globe. The next in the series will be the Middle East, followed by Southeast Asia, and concluding with Europe/United States. Somewhere along the line I will throw out a few comments about Al-Qaeda's presence in Latin America, especially as it relates to drug trafficking, smuggling and the tri-borders region.)
When I originally googled "Al-Qaeda" and "Africa", I expected to find a Wikipedia page full of useful dates and details. Have a look at the link so you can share in my disappointment. No matter; Al-Qaeda is so active at present that a review of any international news provider should bear fruit. Surprisingly, the link from Wikipedia doesn't even identify Mali as a location of interest, and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has been stirring the pot in the north of the country for a few years now. But enough criticism of Wikipedia. It is an invaluable resource that I would hate to lose, so follow my example and give them a few dollars whenever they start one of their fund-raising drives. Back to Al-Qaeda and Africa.
Personally, the U.S. Embassy bombings in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in 1998 were the first time that I connected the terrorist group Al-Qaeda to the African continent. I was aware of the organization, mainly because I was already employed for an Intelligence Agency, and I was working in a counter-terrorist branch at the time. Having spent some time in Kenya and Tanzania, I was immediately useful, as street maps were spread out over desks and rolled-up, dusty maps were pulled out from behind cabinets. Interestingly enough, I can't remember a time when the group Al-Qaeda was not synonymous with Osama bin-Laden. Even then in the early years pre-9/11, everyone was already referring to the two as inseparable evils, and with good reason. Bin-Laden carried his organization on his back, figuratively and literally. He had spent some time in Afghanistan and trained in the Sudan and Yemen. I can't be sure but I believe the planning for 9/11 was already in place when the embassy bombings occurred. I believe another attack was intended, one involving multiple airliners that were to be hijacked out of Manila, and these three attacks (Kenya, NYC, Manila) were going to deliver a message to the West. The third operation never got off the ground, thank goodness.
Since the 1980s, Al-Qaeda has been active in Africa. When Somalia descended into post Siad-Barre hell, Al-Qaeda positioned itself to become an integral part of the conservative and extremist Islamic Courts Union, which was the de facto government in Moqdishu for a while. Once the African Union and the Ethiopian Army removed the Courts from Somalia, they found a comfy exile in Eritrea. I just don't understand the government of Eritrea, why they would want to announce to the world that they are friendly with Al-Qaeda. Obviously this is just another case of, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend", and the Eritreans despise the Ethiopians with a venom that is hard to match. Presently, with Puntland trying to sort itself out, and the Somali government in Moqdishu just trying to get the power back on, the bad guys, who have morphed from the "Islamic Courts Union", to "Al-Shabaab", are doing what they can to cause trouble in Kenya. Don't be fooled; Al-Shabaab is an unpolished, illiterate, ill-trained version of Al-Qaeda, and they understand the importance of establishing a presence in Kenya. The unemployment rate in Kenya is so high, I don't think the Kenyan government bothers to log it anymore. Most young men, at an age when they are supposed to be the most physically productive, are playing soccer in the townships and smoking hash behind the shabeen. The first time I ever saw someone wearing an Osama bin-Laden t-shirt was in Kibera, the huge township that feeds and feeds off of Nairobi. They are hungry in Mombasa as well, and in Nakuru and Kisumu. Al-Qaeda has always intended on taking advantage of the squalor and hopelessness of the third world, to recruit and spread its anti-west, anti-glutton message. But for some reason they have never really succeeded in appealing to the masses. But Africa, and Kenya in particular, give them an ideal opportunity. For Al-Qaeda, Somalia is over. The question is, to relocate the operatives and resources to Sudan and Yemen (and Eritrea), or to make a real push in Kenya.
In west Africa, Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) has caused quite a bit of heartburn. A few years back in Mali, the Tuaregs attempted a bit of a revolution. These usually non-confrontational, private nomads were having their traditional way of life negatively impacted by the activities of various French oil and mineral exploratory operations. They complained to the government in Bamako, but the Euro talks, and the Camel walks, so to speak. So the Tuaregs started a bit of a rebellion. Almost from the start it was hijacked by AQIM, and before long, the Tuaregs had been basically muscled out of the conflict altogether. AQIM proved too much for the Malian Army, so Mother France was called, and to make a boring story short, the French military sorted out AQIM in short-order. In the summer of 2014, when all of west Africa was focused on the anti-Ebola campaign, AQIM popped up again, and this time began attacking targets in Niger. Fortunately the French military always seems to be available, and it is yet to be determined if AQIM will acquit itself in a more positive way this time around. Unfortunately, the French can only be in so many places at one time, and AQIM has a habit of attacking Malian military targets, separate from a French military presence.
Boko Haram has been described as "Al-Qaeda in Nigeria", which is not far from the truth. Originally, Boko Haram was created as a method of educating and providing security for Muslim communities in northern Nigeria. A change in leadership was instrumental in Boko Haram's evolution into an Islamic extremist group, and they have quickly silenced the Islamic opposition (what there was of it). I have never considered Al-Qaeda to be overly religiously motivated, but they won't pass an opportunity to hijack a conservative Islamic movement, as they have demonstrated many times. In reality, I don't think Al-Qaeda has any input into the actions of Boko Haram. They make a bunch of noise and get a good deal of press, but until Boko Haram takes control of the Nigerian Oil Industry and starts pumping that oil to fill Al-Qaeda's coffers, I don't see the possibility of an Al-Qaeda initiative here (unless the U.S. and Nigerian security is lax and the embassy becomes a target of opportunity).
Africa can be a dangerous place for Americans. Because of the ease in which a person can cross one border after another, the U.S. Diplomatic Security folks have to always be on their game. Africa is useful to Al-Qaeda for three reasons: targets of opportunity, training, and recruitment. We know about the first two, but just how much success have the bad guys had at recruiting operatives in Africa? Up to now, I think it has been negligible. But that could change this year. Keep your eye on Kenya.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Kenya And Its Al-Shabab Problem
Link: Al-Shabaab Killing Kenyan Civilians
We don't hear much in the news about Somalia anymore. It only makes sense that when U.S. soldiers were involved in Somalia that the American media would be much more focused on the Horn of Africa. I have no specifics, but I'm sure our military and clandestine folks occasionally have business in Somalia. It very difficult to gauge the level of progress in attempts to bring peace and stability to the Somali people. In early October 2014, soldiers of the internationally recognized government retook Barawe, which had been an important base of operations for Al-Shabaab. With Moqdishu under total government control, and the African Union (AU) continuing its anti-Al-Shabaab campaign in Somalia, I started to consider the possibility of a war-free east Africa. The events of the last week, which are highlighted in the link, brought me back to reality quickly.
On a personal level, I have greater interest in Kenya than I do Somalia. I have lived in Kenya and have numerous Kenyan friends. I'm certainly not disinterested in Somalia; its just never been on my list of "places to visit before I flatline". But as circumstances would have it, a porous border and "easy targets of opportunity" have obliged me to refresh myself on the current state of affairs in Somalia. Somali troubles have been easily exported into Kenya, and the Kenyan national defense options appear to be limited. Al-Shabaab (AS) is crossing the Kenya/Somali border at will and conducting acts of violence against Kenyan civilians. Its true that the Kenyan military is participating in the African Union initiatives in Kenya, and AS is using this as an excuse to execute innocent Kenyans. The ability of AS to conduct operations in all corners of Kenya is quite surprising and alarming (please see map in link). When AS was part of the Islamic conservative movement that attempted to govern Moqdishu at one time, they occasionally appeared to be interested in reform. Any sense of objectivity and progressive thinking has since disappeared, as AS has embraced the habit of executing non-Muslims out-of-hand. Over the past few decades, the Kenyan people have busied themselves with working towards a democratic and corruption-free electoral process. Kenyans have also been very focused on developing an economy that creates jobs and opportunity for all. The specter of terrorism reared its ugly head in 1998 with the Al-Qaeda attacks on the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam, but until the last five years or so, Kenyans had no real concern that a shopping mall would get shot up, or that a taxi would be hikacked and all its occupants murdered. Al-Shabaab has brought that fear home to roost in Kenya, with attacks and fatalities in Mombasa, Nairobi, Wajir, Hindi, and Diani.
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has been much more effective and detail-oriented than I expected, has promised that AS attacks in Kenya will only encourage the Kenyan military to be more determined with their activities in Somalia. Kenyatta seems to be sincerely pissed off regarding the apparent ease with which AS is slipping across the border. I'm not so surprised with AS' ability to cross the border at will. But I am perplexed at the complexity of the AS network in Kenya. How else would they be able to support attacks in Diani (in the southeast), Wajir up north in the rocky desert, and also in Eastleigh, just outside of Nairobi? In an otherwise accurate and valuable article, one point in the link causes a bit of heartburn. I don't think its fair to label the Kenyan security forces as "ill-equipped". Its fair to question the training and ability of the soldier assigned to whatever equipment, but I believe that the Kenyan military and security forces have recently upgraded some of its more important equipment. As is apparent to anyone who watches the international news or reads the newspaper, Kenya is a very close ally of the United States. It is also the second home (at least by heritage) of President Barrack Obama. No one can convince me that our military, et al, would allow the Kenyans to take on experienced, sociopathic terrorists with outdated or broken equipment. Its possible that I'm wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.
So Kenya has a real problem. Even as AS gets pushed to the edge in Somalia, it appears to be very mobile and effective in Kenya. Might AS move its operations from Somalia to Kenya? No doubt there are many jobless, hungry young people in the townships outside of Nairobi and Mombasa who are waiting for a message of deliverance. In order to be effective in that type of outreach operation, terrorist groups must have access to cash. Part of the seduction of the young population is the sharing of wealth. In this instance, AS will probably be limited to using the "change for the better" argument by itself, but it is possible that AS has stepped up its activities in Kenya as a prelude to relocation. To resolve this problem, Kenyatta has the option of basically putting the fight into the hands of the Americans. I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time that an African leader made that kind of decision. Alongside asking for planning and strategy support, Kenyatta must also ask for assistance with resources. If he effectively demonstrates that he is one hundred percent dedicated to the complete destruction of AS, he will find to better ally than the United States of America.
We don't hear much in the news about Somalia anymore. It only makes sense that when U.S. soldiers were involved in Somalia that the American media would be much more focused on the Horn of Africa. I have no specifics, but I'm sure our military and clandestine folks occasionally have business in Somalia. It very difficult to gauge the level of progress in attempts to bring peace and stability to the Somali people. In early October 2014, soldiers of the internationally recognized government retook Barawe, which had been an important base of operations for Al-Shabaab. With Moqdishu under total government control, and the African Union (AU) continuing its anti-Al-Shabaab campaign in Somalia, I started to consider the possibility of a war-free east Africa. The events of the last week, which are highlighted in the link, brought me back to reality quickly.
On a personal level, I have greater interest in Kenya than I do Somalia. I have lived in Kenya and have numerous Kenyan friends. I'm certainly not disinterested in Somalia; its just never been on my list of "places to visit before I flatline". But as circumstances would have it, a porous border and "easy targets of opportunity" have obliged me to refresh myself on the current state of affairs in Somalia. Somali troubles have been easily exported into Kenya, and the Kenyan national defense options appear to be limited. Al-Shabaab (AS) is crossing the Kenya/Somali border at will and conducting acts of violence against Kenyan civilians. Its true that the Kenyan military is participating in the African Union initiatives in Kenya, and AS is using this as an excuse to execute innocent Kenyans. The ability of AS to conduct operations in all corners of Kenya is quite surprising and alarming (please see map in link). When AS was part of the Islamic conservative movement that attempted to govern Moqdishu at one time, they occasionally appeared to be interested in reform. Any sense of objectivity and progressive thinking has since disappeared, as AS has embraced the habit of executing non-Muslims out-of-hand. Over the past few decades, the Kenyan people have busied themselves with working towards a democratic and corruption-free electoral process. Kenyans have also been very focused on developing an economy that creates jobs and opportunity for all. The specter of terrorism reared its ugly head in 1998 with the Al-Qaeda attacks on the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam, but until the last five years or so, Kenyans had no real concern that a shopping mall would get shot up, or that a taxi would be hikacked and all its occupants murdered. Al-Shabaab has brought that fear home to roost in Kenya, with attacks and fatalities in Mombasa, Nairobi, Wajir, Hindi, and Diani.
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has been much more effective and detail-oriented than I expected, has promised that AS attacks in Kenya will only encourage the Kenyan military to be more determined with their activities in Somalia. Kenyatta seems to be sincerely pissed off regarding the apparent ease with which AS is slipping across the border. I'm not so surprised with AS' ability to cross the border at will. But I am perplexed at the complexity of the AS network in Kenya. How else would they be able to support attacks in Diani (in the southeast), Wajir up north in the rocky desert, and also in Eastleigh, just outside of Nairobi? In an otherwise accurate and valuable article, one point in the link causes a bit of heartburn. I don't think its fair to label the Kenyan security forces as "ill-equipped". Its fair to question the training and ability of the soldier assigned to whatever equipment, but I believe that the Kenyan military and security forces have recently upgraded some of its more important equipment. As is apparent to anyone who watches the international news or reads the newspaper, Kenya is a very close ally of the United States. It is also the second home (at least by heritage) of President Barrack Obama. No one can convince me that our military, et al, would allow the Kenyans to take on experienced, sociopathic terrorists with outdated or broken equipment. Its possible that I'm wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.
So Kenya has a real problem. Even as AS gets pushed to the edge in Somalia, it appears to be very mobile and effective in Kenya. Might AS move its operations from Somalia to Kenya? No doubt there are many jobless, hungry young people in the townships outside of Nairobi and Mombasa who are waiting for a message of deliverance. In order to be effective in that type of outreach operation, terrorist groups must have access to cash. Part of the seduction of the young population is the sharing of wealth. In this instance, AS will probably be limited to using the "change for the better" argument by itself, but it is possible that AS has stepped up its activities in Kenya as a prelude to relocation. To resolve this problem, Kenyatta has the option of basically putting the fight into the hands of the Americans. I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time that an African leader made that kind of decision. Alongside asking for planning and strategy support, Kenyatta must also ask for assistance with resources. If he effectively demonstrates that he is one hundred percent dedicated to the complete destruction of AS, he will find to better ally than the United States of America.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
Somalian-based Terrorist Group Al-Shabaab Threat to U.S. Interests in Uganda
Link: Uganda Foils Imminent Al-Shabaab terror Plot
To understand the particular brand of compost that makes up the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab (The Younger), Mookie Baby will have to take a quick trip through history. Somalia, which occupies the eastern Horn of Africa, was an Italian colony until the end of World War II. At one time it was home to a sizable Italian population, and would have made a strategic port for the Italian Navy. (Why does the new Italian Navy have glass bottom boats? So they can look at the old Italian Navy.) After the war it was administered as a protectorate by the Brits until Independence in 1960. In 1991 Somalia descended into the nastiest kind of civil war. In the ten years leading up the civil war, the economy had broken down, the capital Moqdishu was often without power, and the government had become more unpopular and repressive. When the government finally fell, Somalia collapsed into many separate areas of authority. A group of Islamic Courts was created to help the people work through conflicts (using Sharia Law, of course). These Courts eventually started providing aid and healthcare and adopted the name "Islamic Courts Union" (ICU). The ICU swallowed up weaker authorities and expanded quickly.
In 1999 the Courts and various affiliated groups merged to create a militia, the ICUP. At its greatest strength, ICU was in control of Moqdishu and all of south Somalia. Interestingly enough, a government run by judges is called a "Krytocracy" (thank you, Wikipedia). From 1999 to 2006, the ICU fought against a variety of different home-grown groups including a number of "Transitional Governments" supported by the Arab League and African Union. In 2006, with the ICU apparently in control of all of Moqdishu and large parts of Somalia, Ethiopia invaded. The Ethiopians had no trouble defeating the various militias aligned with the ICU. A Transitional Federal Government (TFG), supported by Ethiopia, the African Union, and apparently the UN, forced the remaining elements of ICU into the rural areas (although certain sectors of Moqdishu remained in Al-Shabaab control until 2011). The ICU splintered into a number of groups, including Al-Shabaab, which describes itself as carrying out a jihad against the enemies of Islam, the TRG, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Al-Shabaab is known to butcher herds of elephants to raise money from their Ivory, and also collects ransoms from kidnappings. Internationally, Eritrea (Eritrea's Intelligence Service in particular), has been accused of providing support to Al-Shabaab (Eritrea hates Ethiopia, Ethiopia is at war with Al-Shabaab, therefore Eritrea supports Al-Shabaab; just another verse in the famous tune "the enemy of my enemy is my friend").
After 2006, Al-Shabaab began to resemble a smaller, more tactile terrorist group. Attacks were conducted against targets in Kenya, especially areas frequented by western tourists. Starting in 2011, Al-Shabaab began conducting small scale attacks against defenseless targets in Nairobi and also in areas of northeast Kenya. Hundreds of people were killed. In December 2013, Al-Shabaab attacked an upscale shopping market in Nairobi (frequented by ex-pats, diplomats, and wealthy Kenyans) and thirty-nine people were killed. In September 2014, a Drone strike killed Al-Shabaab leader Moktar Ali Zubayr. Operations by Kenyan police and Special Forces, with assistance from western allies, conducted many successful raids against Al-Shabaab in 2013 and 2014. It was believed by many that the death of Zubayr spelled the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab. It might have been wishful thinking, as the link provided above details Ugandan authorities working against a suspected Al-Shabaab operation in Entebbe, Uganda. In 2012 Al-Shabaab announced a merger with a Somali-based Al-Qaeda group. Intelligence has also confirmed that Al-Shabaab is in contact with Al-Qaeda In the Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian Islamic fundamentalist group Boko Haram (see previous post on Boko Haram).
It would be unwise to consider Al-Shabaab irrelevant. In many instances, terrorist groups become more of a threat as they become smaller. They are able to travel easier and don't require much in the way of resources (although everyone needs an AK-47, a beheading knife, and a bomb or two). I can imagine the poor folks at CTC in Langley trying to make sense of all these various groups. One of the reasons they splinter in this manner is to make it difficult for the good guys to stay on top of their game. It would be much easier to follow and destroy three large terrorist networks, as opposed to the difficulty (and resources needed) to combat over one hundred different groups. The key is not to get bogged down in the different names and titles. These people all have the same basic goal, creating chaos and fear through murder and destruction. They are best confronted as one monster: International Terrorism.
To understand the particular brand of compost that makes up the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab (The Younger), Mookie Baby will have to take a quick trip through history. Somalia, which occupies the eastern Horn of Africa, was an Italian colony until the end of World War II. At one time it was home to a sizable Italian population, and would have made a strategic port for the Italian Navy. (Why does the new Italian Navy have glass bottom boats? So they can look at the old Italian Navy.) After the war it was administered as a protectorate by the Brits until Independence in 1960. In 1991 Somalia descended into the nastiest kind of civil war. In the ten years leading up the civil war, the economy had broken down, the capital Moqdishu was often without power, and the government had become more unpopular and repressive. When the government finally fell, Somalia collapsed into many separate areas of authority. A group of Islamic Courts was created to help the people work through conflicts (using Sharia Law, of course). These Courts eventually started providing aid and healthcare and adopted the name "Islamic Courts Union" (ICU). The ICU swallowed up weaker authorities and expanded quickly.
In 1999 the Courts and various affiliated groups merged to create a militia, the ICUP. At its greatest strength, ICU was in control of Moqdishu and all of south Somalia. Interestingly enough, a government run by judges is called a "Krytocracy" (thank you, Wikipedia). From 1999 to 2006, the ICU fought against a variety of different home-grown groups including a number of "Transitional Governments" supported by the Arab League and African Union. In 2006, with the ICU apparently in control of all of Moqdishu and large parts of Somalia, Ethiopia invaded. The Ethiopians had no trouble defeating the various militias aligned with the ICU. A Transitional Federal Government (TFG), supported by Ethiopia, the African Union, and apparently the UN, forced the remaining elements of ICU into the rural areas (although certain sectors of Moqdishu remained in Al-Shabaab control until 2011). The ICU splintered into a number of groups, including Al-Shabaab, which describes itself as carrying out a jihad against the enemies of Islam, the TRG, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Al-Shabaab is known to butcher herds of elephants to raise money from their Ivory, and also collects ransoms from kidnappings. Internationally, Eritrea (Eritrea's Intelligence Service in particular), has been accused of providing support to Al-Shabaab (Eritrea hates Ethiopia, Ethiopia is at war with Al-Shabaab, therefore Eritrea supports Al-Shabaab; just another verse in the famous tune "the enemy of my enemy is my friend").
After 2006, Al-Shabaab began to resemble a smaller, more tactile terrorist group. Attacks were conducted against targets in Kenya, especially areas frequented by western tourists. Starting in 2011, Al-Shabaab began conducting small scale attacks against defenseless targets in Nairobi and also in areas of northeast Kenya. Hundreds of people were killed. In December 2013, Al-Shabaab attacked an upscale shopping market in Nairobi (frequented by ex-pats, diplomats, and wealthy Kenyans) and thirty-nine people were killed. In September 2014, a Drone strike killed Al-Shabaab leader Moktar Ali Zubayr. Operations by Kenyan police and Special Forces, with assistance from western allies, conducted many successful raids against Al-Shabaab in 2013 and 2014. It was believed by many that the death of Zubayr spelled the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab. It might have been wishful thinking, as the link provided above details Ugandan authorities working against a suspected Al-Shabaab operation in Entebbe, Uganda. In 2012 Al-Shabaab announced a merger with a Somali-based Al-Qaeda group. Intelligence has also confirmed that Al-Shabaab is in contact with Al-Qaeda In the Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian Islamic fundamentalist group Boko Haram (see previous post on Boko Haram).
It would be unwise to consider Al-Shabaab irrelevant. In many instances, terrorist groups become more of a threat as they become smaller. They are able to travel easier and don't require much in the way of resources (although everyone needs an AK-47, a beheading knife, and a bomb or two). I can imagine the poor folks at CTC in Langley trying to make sense of all these various groups. One of the reasons they splinter in this manner is to make it difficult for the good guys to stay on top of their game. It would be much easier to follow and destroy three large terrorist networks, as opposed to the difficulty (and resources needed) to combat over one hundred different groups. The key is not to get bogged down in the different names and titles. These people all have the same basic goal, creating chaos and fear through murder and destruction. They are best confronted as one monster: International Terrorism.
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