Link: Al-Shabaab Killing Kenyan Civilians
We don't hear much in the news about Somalia anymore. It only makes sense that when U.S. soldiers were involved in Somalia that the American media would be much more focused on the Horn of Africa. I have no specifics, but I'm sure our military and clandestine folks occasionally have business in Somalia. It very difficult to gauge the level of progress in attempts to bring peace and stability to the Somali people. In early October 2014, soldiers of the internationally recognized government retook Barawe, which had been an important base of operations for Al-Shabaab. With Moqdishu under total government control, and the African Union (AU) continuing its anti-Al-Shabaab campaign in Somalia, I started to consider the possibility of a war-free east Africa. The events of the last week, which are highlighted in the link, brought me back to reality quickly.
On a personal level, I have greater interest in Kenya than I do Somalia. I have lived in Kenya and have numerous Kenyan friends. I'm certainly not disinterested in Somalia; its just never been on my list of "places to visit before I flatline". But as circumstances would have it, a porous border and "easy targets of opportunity" have obliged me to refresh myself on the current state of affairs in Somalia. Somali troubles have been easily exported into Kenya, and the Kenyan national defense options appear to be limited. Al-Shabaab (AS) is crossing the Kenya/Somali border at will and conducting acts of violence against Kenyan civilians. Its true that the Kenyan military is participating in the African Union initiatives in Kenya, and AS is using this as an excuse to execute innocent Kenyans. The ability of AS to conduct operations in all corners of Kenya is quite surprising and alarming (please see map in link). When AS was part of the Islamic conservative movement that attempted to govern Moqdishu at one time, they occasionally appeared to be interested in reform. Any sense of objectivity and progressive thinking has since disappeared, as AS has embraced the habit of executing non-Muslims out-of-hand. Over the past few decades, the Kenyan people have busied themselves with working towards a democratic and corruption-free electoral process. Kenyans have also been very focused on developing an economy that creates jobs and opportunity for all. The specter of terrorism reared its ugly head in 1998 with the Al-Qaeda attacks on the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salaam, but until the last five years or so, Kenyans had no real concern that a shopping mall would get shot up, or that a taxi would be hikacked and all its occupants murdered. Al-Shabaab has brought that fear home to roost in Kenya, with attacks and fatalities in Mombasa, Nairobi, Wajir, Hindi, and Diani.
Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who has been much more effective and detail-oriented than I expected, has promised that AS attacks in Kenya will only encourage the Kenyan military to be more determined with their activities in Somalia. Kenyatta seems to be sincerely pissed off regarding the apparent ease with which AS is slipping across the border. I'm not so surprised with AS' ability to cross the border at will. But I am perplexed at the complexity of the AS network in Kenya. How else would they be able to support attacks in Diani (in the southeast), Wajir up north in the rocky desert, and also in Eastleigh, just outside of Nairobi? In an otherwise accurate and valuable article, one point in the link causes a bit of heartburn. I don't think its fair to label the Kenyan security forces as "ill-equipped". Its fair to question the training and ability of the soldier assigned to whatever equipment, but I believe that the Kenyan military and security forces have recently upgraded some of its more important equipment. As is apparent to anyone who watches the international news or reads the newspaper, Kenya is a very close ally of the United States. It is also the second home (at least by heritage) of President Barrack Obama. No one can convince me that our military, et al, would allow the Kenyans to take on experienced, sociopathic terrorists with outdated or broken equipment. Its possible that I'm wrong, but I wouldn't bet on it.
So Kenya has a real problem. Even as AS gets pushed to the edge in Somalia, it appears to be very mobile and effective in Kenya. Might AS move its operations from Somalia to Kenya? No doubt there are many jobless, hungry young people in the townships outside of Nairobi and Mombasa who are waiting for a message of deliverance. In order to be effective in that type of outreach operation, terrorist groups must have access to cash. Part of the seduction of the young population is the sharing of wealth. In this instance, AS will probably be limited to using the "change for the better" argument by itself, but it is possible that AS has stepped up its activities in Kenya as a prelude to relocation. To resolve this problem, Kenyatta has the option of basically putting the fight into the hands of the Americans. I'm sure it wouldn't be the first time that an African leader made that kind of decision. Alongside asking for planning and strategy support, Kenyatta must also ask for assistance with resources. If he effectively demonstrates that he is one hundred percent dedicated to the complete destruction of AS, he will find to better ally than the United States of America.
Showing posts with label Moqdishu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moqdishu. Show all posts
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Saturday, September 13, 2014
Somalian-based Terrorist Group Al-Shabaab Threat to U.S. Interests in Uganda
Link: Uganda Foils Imminent Al-Shabaab terror Plot
To understand the particular brand of compost that makes up the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab (The Younger), Mookie Baby will have to take a quick trip through history. Somalia, which occupies the eastern Horn of Africa, was an Italian colony until the end of World War II. At one time it was home to a sizable Italian population, and would have made a strategic port for the Italian Navy. (Why does the new Italian Navy have glass bottom boats? So they can look at the old Italian Navy.) After the war it was administered as a protectorate by the Brits until Independence in 1960. In 1991 Somalia descended into the nastiest kind of civil war. In the ten years leading up the civil war, the economy had broken down, the capital Moqdishu was often without power, and the government had become more unpopular and repressive. When the government finally fell, Somalia collapsed into many separate areas of authority. A group of Islamic Courts was created to help the people work through conflicts (using Sharia Law, of course). These Courts eventually started providing aid and healthcare and adopted the name "Islamic Courts Union" (ICU). The ICU swallowed up weaker authorities and expanded quickly.
In 1999 the Courts and various affiliated groups merged to create a militia, the ICUP. At its greatest strength, ICU was in control of Moqdishu and all of south Somalia. Interestingly enough, a government run by judges is called a "Krytocracy" (thank you, Wikipedia). From 1999 to 2006, the ICU fought against a variety of different home-grown groups including a number of "Transitional Governments" supported by the Arab League and African Union. In 2006, with the ICU apparently in control of all of Moqdishu and large parts of Somalia, Ethiopia invaded. The Ethiopians had no trouble defeating the various militias aligned with the ICU. A Transitional Federal Government (TFG), supported by Ethiopia, the African Union, and apparently the UN, forced the remaining elements of ICU into the rural areas (although certain sectors of Moqdishu remained in Al-Shabaab control until 2011). The ICU splintered into a number of groups, including Al-Shabaab, which describes itself as carrying out a jihad against the enemies of Islam, the TRG, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Al-Shabaab is known to butcher herds of elephants to raise money from their Ivory, and also collects ransoms from kidnappings. Internationally, Eritrea (Eritrea's Intelligence Service in particular), has been accused of providing support to Al-Shabaab (Eritrea hates Ethiopia, Ethiopia is at war with Al-Shabaab, therefore Eritrea supports Al-Shabaab; just another verse in the famous tune "the enemy of my enemy is my friend").
After 2006, Al-Shabaab began to resemble a smaller, more tactile terrorist group. Attacks were conducted against targets in Kenya, especially areas frequented by western tourists. Starting in 2011, Al-Shabaab began conducting small scale attacks against defenseless targets in Nairobi and also in areas of northeast Kenya. Hundreds of people were killed. In December 2013, Al-Shabaab attacked an upscale shopping market in Nairobi (frequented by ex-pats, diplomats, and wealthy Kenyans) and thirty-nine people were killed. In September 2014, a Drone strike killed Al-Shabaab leader Moktar Ali Zubayr. Operations by Kenyan police and Special Forces, with assistance from western allies, conducted many successful raids against Al-Shabaab in 2013 and 2014. It was believed by many that the death of Zubayr spelled the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab. It might have been wishful thinking, as the link provided above details Ugandan authorities working against a suspected Al-Shabaab operation in Entebbe, Uganda. In 2012 Al-Shabaab announced a merger with a Somali-based Al-Qaeda group. Intelligence has also confirmed that Al-Shabaab is in contact with Al-Qaeda In the Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian Islamic fundamentalist group Boko Haram (see previous post on Boko Haram).
It would be unwise to consider Al-Shabaab irrelevant. In many instances, terrorist groups become more of a threat as they become smaller. They are able to travel easier and don't require much in the way of resources (although everyone needs an AK-47, a beheading knife, and a bomb or two). I can imagine the poor folks at CTC in Langley trying to make sense of all these various groups. One of the reasons they splinter in this manner is to make it difficult for the good guys to stay on top of their game. It would be much easier to follow and destroy three large terrorist networks, as opposed to the difficulty (and resources needed) to combat over one hundred different groups. The key is not to get bogged down in the different names and titles. These people all have the same basic goal, creating chaos and fear through murder and destruction. They are best confronted as one monster: International Terrorism.
To understand the particular brand of compost that makes up the Somalian terrorist group Al-Shabaab (The Younger), Mookie Baby will have to take a quick trip through history. Somalia, which occupies the eastern Horn of Africa, was an Italian colony until the end of World War II. At one time it was home to a sizable Italian population, and would have made a strategic port for the Italian Navy. (Why does the new Italian Navy have glass bottom boats? So they can look at the old Italian Navy.) After the war it was administered as a protectorate by the Brits until Independence in 1960. In 1991 Somalia descended into the nastiest kind of civil war. In the ten years leading up the civil war, the economy had broken down, the capital Moqdishu was often without power, and the government had become more unpopular and repressive. When the government finally fell, Somalia collapsed into many separate areas of authority. A group of Islamic Courts was created to help the people work through conflicts (using Sharia Law, of course). These Courts eventually started providing aid and healthcare and adopted the name "Islamic Courts Union" (ICU). The ICU swallowed up weaker authorities and expanded quickly.
In 1999 the Courts and various affiliated groups merged to create a militia, the ICUP. At its greatest strength, ICU was in control of Moqdishu and all of south Somalia. Interestingly enough, a government run by judges is called a "Krytocracy" (thank you, Wikipedia). From 1999 to 2006, the ICU fought against a variety of different home-grown groups including a number of "Transitional Governments" supported by the Arab League and African Union. In 2006, with the ICU apparently in control of all of Moqdishu and large parts of Somalia, Ethiopia invaded. The Ethiopians had no trouble defeating the various militias aligned with the ICU. A Transitional Federal Government (TFG), supported by Ethiopia, the African Union, and apparently the UN, forced the remaining elements of ICU into the rural areas (although certain sectors of Moqdishu remained in Al-Shabaab control until 2011). The ICU splintered into a number of groups, including Al-Shabaab, which describes itself as carrying out a jihad against the enemies of Islam, the TRG, and the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). Al-Shabaab is known to butcher herds of elephants to raise money from their Ivory, and also collects ransoms from kidnappings. Internationally, Eritrea (Eritrea's Intelligence Service in particular), has been accused of providing support to Al-Shabaab (Eritrea hates Ethiopia, Ethiopia is at war with Al-Shabaab, therefore Eritrea supports Al-Shabaab; just another verse in the famous tune "the enemy of my enemy is my friend").
After 2006, Al-Shabaab began to resemble a smaller, more tactile terrorist group. Attacks were conducted against targets in Kenya, especially areas frequented by western tourists. Starting in 2011, Al-Shabaab began conducting small scale attacks against defenseless targets in Nairobi and also in areas of northeast Kenya. Hundreds of people were killed. In December 2013, Al-Shabaab attacked an upscale shopping market in Nairobi (frequented by ex-pats, diplomats, and wealthy Kenyans) and thirty-nine people were killed. In September 2014, a Drone strike killed Al-Shabaab leader Moktar Ali Zubayr. Operations by Kenyan police and Special Forces, with assistance from western allies, conducted many successful raids against Al-Shabaab in 2013 and 2014. It was believed by many that the death of Zubayr spelled the beginning of the end for Al-Shabaab. It might have been wishful thinking, as the link provided above details Ugandan authorities working against a suspected Al-Shabaab operation in Entebbe, Uganda. In 2012 Al-Shabaab announced a merger with a Somali-based Al-Qaeda group. Intelligence has also confirmed that Al-Shabaab is in contact with Al-Qaeda In the Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigerian Islamic fundamentalist group Boko Haram (see previous post on Boko Haram).
It would be unwise to consider Al-Shabaab irrelevant. In many instances, terrorist groups become more of a threat as they become smaller. They are able to travel easier and don't require much in the way of resources (although everyone needs an AK-47, a beheading knife, and a bomb or two). I can imagine the poor folks at CTC in Langley trying to make sense of all these various groups. One of the reasons they splinter in this manner is to make it difficult for the good guys to stay on top of their game. It would be much easier to follow and destroy three large terrorist networks, as opposed to the difficulty (and resources needed) to combat over one hundred different groups. The key is not to get bogged down in the different names and titles. These people all have the same basic goal, creating chaos and fear through murder and destruction. They are best confronted as one monster: International Terrorism.
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