The expansion of ISIS and its intended future targets.

Link: A.  The expansion of The Islamic State.
          B.  Hamas aiding ISIS in Sinai?
      

This blog has regularly taken the opportunity to provide information regarding the recruitment efforts ands expansionist intentions of the extremist group, The Islamic State (ISIS).  From out perspective, the United States and its European and Arab allies have not been nearly proactive enough regarding the ISIS' ability to establish itself rapidly in almost any part of the world.  In fact, the allies haven't been proactive whatsoever.  Until now, that is.  We are beginning to see a bit more attention paid to the activities of ISIS, and more importantly, groups that have aligned themselves with the Islamic State.  June and July were pivotal months regarding the expansion of ISIS from within the conflict zones of Syria and Iraq, to Egypt, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, and possibly even the United States itself.  As detailed in our blog posting from July 8 (Link B), ISIS arrived with a bang in Sinai, taking out one Egyptian checkpoint before being dispatched themselves.  Although the international press had published occasional stories regarding certain established terrorist groups pledging allegiance to ISIS, it was the attack in Sinai that sounded the alarm.  From a strictly military perspective, the attack was a disaster.  The ISIS fighters, most of whom were local Palestinian recruits with a few veterans of Syria thrown in for good measure, managed to kill a handful of Egyptian soldiers, but they lost roughly two hundred of their own.  We know from a source on the scene that the Egyptian soldiers, especially the ones attacked at the original checkpoint, exhibited tremendous courage and determination.  No doubt their ability to keep ISIS from quickly moving through the checkpoint and on to larger targets, saved many lives.  In the end, though, the attack achieved its goals.  ISIS wanted to announce to the world that the conflict was no longer limited to Syria and Iraq, and also demonstrate its ability to recruit and utilize dedicated supporters was basically unlimited.

Since the early July events in Gaza, ISIS has not conducted anymore high-profile attacks outside Syria and Iraq, at least not of which we are aware.  In July, an Islamic extremist gunman opened fire on a U.S. military facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee, killing four Marines and a Sailor.  Was this deranged young man connected to ISIS?  Not according to the U.S. government.  He was a frequent visitor to ISIS-friendly websites, message boards and chat rooms, and he recently spent six months in Jordan, which makes the "lone-wolf" declaration by the Obama Administration seem to us to be bizarrely premature and suspiciously political.  We suspect that the shooter probably had some contact with ISIS agents while in Jordan, who ratcheted up the hate and anti-infidel message which was spinning in his head when he returned stateside.  The most difficult question to answer, is what kind of sleeper-cell network has ISIS, and Al-Qaeda beforehand, developed in North America?  From our optic, Al-Qaeda appears to favor the well-planned, highly trained, carefully chosen target, patient approach with regards to its cells, while ISIS seems to have no problem just handing someone a gun or a vehicle full of explosives, and telling them that when the signal comes in, just go out and kill people.  Interestingly enough, Bin Laden, Zawahiri and Al-Qaeda loved a carefully planned, well-resourced operation, and al-Baghdadi and ISIS seem to prefer operations that result in the highest casualty list, regardless of cost.  In the end, though, all three were definite believers in the power of fear.  However the operation comes about, in the end, it must create enough fear in the target communities, to make people consider changing the way they and their families live life.

On a positive note, the new administration in Nigeria seems intent on destroying Boko Haram (BH)once and for all.  The terrorist group has basically been on the run for some weeks, as the joint military efforts of Chad, Nigeria, Benin and Cameroon have left BH very little room to maneuver.  BH achieved a great deal of attention with its announcement of allegiance to ISIS, but ISIS is smart enough to stay out of northern Nigeria, at least for the moment.  The same can't be said for Libya, which seems to become more of a complicated mess everyday.  The fact that Libya hasn't already been united under one Islamic extremist banner is a surprise in itself, because it certainly seems destined to happen.  But for the time being, the United States and Europe continue to utilize some form of diplomacy to effect positive change, while at the same time, ISIS does its business out in the desert, visiting one isolated community after another, and adding them to the cause.  I'm not sure if the current Libyan government sits in Benghazi or Tripoli, or if any government is currently being recognized by the United Nations.  But the U.N. and the United States have been aware of the delicate state of affairs in Libya, since long before the Benghazi incident which killed five Americans.  You could not plan a more advantageous situation for ISIS, as the people are desperate for someone to institute a bit of law and order, and maybe get the water turned back on.  As demonstrated in Iraq, ISIS has learned the art of local government, and is expanding its footprint in Libya by providing communities with some level of organization and relief.

ISIS has also become active in Yemen, but to what degree is still a mystery.  ISIS has also established itself in many of the large, urban township communities in central and southern Africa, which has the potential to be an unlimited source of recruits.  Has ISIS found its way to the townships of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paolo?  When young people see no future, the color of their skin makes no difference.  They will be a captive audience when the ISIS recruiters show up, with stories of glory on the battlefield, the holiness of killing infidels, and the providing of a wife (in this world, and forty additional ones in the next).  But one of the most important thing that ISIS can provide is something that the planners at the U.N. and the Pentagon haven't really started to notice: ISIS provides these young people with DIRECTION, a cause, a reason to get up in the morning.  One can never overestimate the value of "raison d'etre".  If the various governments in Africa are unable to solve endemic problems of unemployment and homelessness, then we should have a good idea from where the next batch of young recruits will originate.  Maybe the next Gaza-like statement will be in Pretoria, or Nakuru.  One thing is certain: the problem of global youth unemployment will only feed the fire of discontent that continues to provide extremists like ISIS with young people who are willing to die for the cause. 

Is Hamas working with ISIS in Sinai?

Link: A.  Is Hamas working with ISIS?
          B. Developments in Sinai.

The Islamic State has a new name, folks.  First, we struggled with ISIS; then we were challenged with "The Islamic State for the Creation of a Caliphate in the Levant", which, I guess, could become "ISCOCIL".  Thank goodness someone had better sense.  As for the new name on the scene, it has been selected to identify the nascent establishment of an armed element of the Islamic State that has been active in the Sinai region, and its name is "Wilayat Sinai".  I'm no Arabic scholar, but the name "Wilayat" reminds me of "Vilayet", a term used to describe communities in the Ottoman Empire.  My superior skills of deduction tell me that "Wilayat Sinai" identifies what the Islamic State has decided is a part of its future Caliphate.  When they organize an armed group for a part of Jordan, it may be named, "Wilayat Amman".  This new group located in north Sinai, traditional home of Hamas, introduced itself with a bang last week, by attacking an Egyptian Army checkpoint and killing all the soldiers on duty.  The attack was coordinated to coincide with vehicle/suicide attacks on other Egyptian military targets, but things didn't go exactly as planned.  The Egyptians acquitted themselves admirably and gave hell to the Wilayat Sinai fighters.  Interestingly enough, this action took place under the noses of the U.S. military, which currently has a presence in Sinai.  Task Force Sinai, a regiment-sized U.S. Army contribution to the Multinational Force and Observers, the U.N. peacekeeping organization in pace in Sinai since 1982.  Aside from the Explosives Ordinance Disposal Unit, what exactly are these U.S. troops doing in Sinai?

When I think of Sinai, I think of that large land-mass that separate Egypt and Israel.  When I was a child, I used to imagine the plight of the poor Israelites, crossing the Sinai desert, with Moses at the lead, to escape Pharaoh and slavery.  The Sinai has been the location of a number of recent terrorist attacks against Egyptian soldiers and police.  Last week, the ISIS-baby Wilayat Sinai got in on the act.  The attacks against the Egyptian military were obviously a probing operation, to test the reaction time and effectiveness of the Egyptian contingent.  The Pentagon has estimated that the Islamic State has roughly 200 fighters in north Sinai.  We estimate the number to be closer to 500, but this includes new recruits, some of whom were probably present in last week's attacks, and gained experience through one helluva baptism of fire.  We know that ISIS is spreading, and has established branches as far away as Nigeria.  Yesterday Barrack Obama publicly announced that ISIS was on is heels.  This guy really has Chutzpah.  Only a few years ago, he described ISIS as being a "JV" (junior varsity) organization.  They now control most of Syria and Iraq.  He's a keeper, that's for sure.  We can only imagine how Israel is digesting this recent news of ISIS presenting itself so near Israel's southern border.  ISIS in the north, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and now ISIS in the south.  I have a degree in Geography, so when I say that Israel is looking a bit "boxed in", you can take it to the bank.

I wasn't so much shocked about the coming-out party for Wilayat Sinai as I was the rumors of cooperation between the Islamic State and Hamas.  I would have thought that ideologically, there would be some problems with this relationship, not to mention that Hamas considers itself the sage of terrorist activity, with ISIS being the snot-nosed upstart.  But it does appear as if some level of cooperation has taken place, which really complicates an already muddy picture.  For the moment, though, my concern is with Task Force Sinai.  Again, I'm really confused about the marching order for these young men and women.  Are they armed?  Do they patrol?  If they're peacekeepers, are they under the command of a foreigner?  It wasn't so long ago that Hamas had militarized Gaza, and turned schools and hospitals into missile depositories, forcing the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) to enter Gaza.  This is a dangerous place, folks.  What kind of peacekeeping are our soldiers doing?  For now, lets forget about yesterday and deal with today and tomorrow.  If ISIS has decided to extend its war for the Caliphate to the Sinai, I demand that our troops be armed all the time, with orders to defend themselves as appropriate to any self-defense situation.  If the Administration is going to insist that our troops be unarmed, then its time to pull back our soldiers and replace them with diplomats.  That would be there function after all, n'est pas? 

Why Won't Someone Help The Poor Palestinians? (Part II)

(Part II)


Funding from the west (the EU, UN and the United States...please see links) also poured into the Israeli-occupied West Bank.  The eternal optimists with all the loose cash continued to believe that they were paying for the rebuilding of homes, infrastructure, possibly an airport, harbor facilities in Gaza, a medical system for both the West Bank and Gaza, a unified education system for both primary and secondary education, etc.   None of it happened.  The Arabs and those that espouse the cause of the Palestinians try to find reason to blame the Israelis, but the reality is, the money was stolen, plain and simple.  It continues to be stolen and it will always be stolen until someone creates some system of accountability. A few Palestinians who have managed to reach the top of the political structure, not to mention the bosses in Hamas and the PA, have done very well.  But the five million Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank still live in absolute destitution.  Hamas and the PA (and the anti-Zionists) have tried repeatedly to blame the plight of the Palestinians on the lack of a political resolution to the Israeli occupation of the West Bank (and the continued Jewish settlements, and the Israeli control of the economy of Gaza, etc.)  But the reality is, if Israel were to pull out of the West Bank tomorrow and dismantle all of the Jewish settlements, it would not result in the building of one Palestinian home, supermarket, crèche, or hospital.  The Palestinian communities would continue to exist as the have for the last four decades.  One fact would change: Israel would be handing over territory that would OVERNIGHT become a base for terror operations into Israel proper.  If you don't see that coming then you are too blind to have a balanced conversation on the subject.  The groups and individuals that represent the Palestinians (in many instances chosen by the Palestinians) do not call for sharing the land and living peacefully together.  They are still dedicated to destruction of Israel, and make no effort to disguise their intentions.

As complicated as it seems in this short commentary, believe me, this issue is one hundred times more convoluted.  No one can be satisfied with the reality that five million Palestinians, whose parents and grandparents actually called Israel home sixty years ago (they called it Palestine, not Israel), are obliged to live under a military occupation and without any real hope for the future.  The PA, who should have used the financial aid from the west to build some sort of functioning economic system that creates jobs and grows wealth, builds new homes and sanitation systems, and improves the lives of the people.  It never happens.  The PA owns one plane, I think its an old 737, and they have no real airport from which to fly it (the operative word being "real").  Can you imagine the fishing industry that would take root in Gaza with a legitimate port facility, not to mention revenue and jobs from imports and exports that could be charged to Israel and Egypt?  The only way a port facility will ever be built in Gaza is if someone arrives TO BUILD IT.  Any funds donated for that kind of a project will be stolen.

I used to have this idea in my head that one day Israel would be able to foster the development of a separate Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank.  it won't be easy getting the Israelis to agree to leave the West Bank and to leave Gaza in peace, but I have a feeling that if a year passed without any terrorist attacks on Israeli targets originating from the West Bank or tunnels dug from Gaza, that the Israeli people would be amenable.  The next step would be to find some mechanism to ensure that development aid gets spent on infrastructure and education, instead of ending up in Swiss Bank Accounts.  I made an effort to calculate the total amount of money that had been given to the Palestinian people through their political representatives over the years.  I quit when I reached the thirty billion dollar mark.  That equals six thousand dollars for every Palestinian man, woman and child.  And there is nothing to show for it.  The development that has occurred in the West Bank and Gaza includes a few "showy" projects for the Europeans, and that's all.  The rest has been accomplished by the sacrifice and hard work of the Palestinian people, who are taxed, by the way.  I can't help but wonder exactly what they are paying for with their taxes.  In some cases, running water and electricity.  And the right to live under the authority of the PA or Hamas, within the occupation of the Israeli military.  Can you imagine a more discouraging environment in which to raise a family?

Why Won't Someone Help the Poor Palestinians? (Part I)

Links: A. Wikipedia Entry For Palestine
           B.  PLO Corruption
           C. Endemic Corruption in Palestine
           D. EU Audit Of PA Finds Billions Unaccounted For
           E. Obama Releases 500 Million In Aid To PA

Now THIS is a tough subject to tackle in four paragraphs or less.  Politically speaking, I do not apologize for the fact that I am a great admirer and supporter of the Israeli people.  This shouldn't come as a surprise to you unless this is the first time you have visited the blog.  Simply put, I tend to look at the history of the region with as little complication as possible.  In 1947, the United Nations voted to partition the British-occupied land known as Palestine, and divide it between Jews and Arabs/Palestinians.  The international Jewish community was still reeling from the damages of the Holocaust, and there was a great deal of sentiment in favor of the idea of a Jewish nation or homeland.  Obviously consideration was given to the European survivors of the genocide, and the real possibility that they had no interest in returning to Germany, or Austria, or Hungary, or any other country that had either assisted the Nazis or turned a blind eye to the relocation of European Jews to concentration camps.  Before the World Wars, and international Zionist organization existed for the sole purpose of finding a suitable location for a Jewish homeland (the Russian pogroms, miniature versions of the death camps, had sounded the alarm that trouble was on its way).  If they had been successful, it would be interesting to know if Israel as we know it would have come into existence.
Following the end of the Second World War, the United Nations was determined to provide the Jewish diaspora some place to claim as their own.  Palestine seemed like as good a place as any.  the population was very rural, much of it nomadic.  It was home to two large urban areas, Jerusalem and Haifa, but otherwise, the UN probably assumed no one would complain about their choice.  Certainly the Jews were happy, because Palestine was the land of David and the home of the Jewish Holy City of Jerusalem.  In truth, the Arab community was not happy, because for as long as anyone could recall, the land was Arab land (occupied by Ottoman Turks from the 14th century until the end of the First World War).  The UN and the British expected them to share with the Jews but why should they have to share anything that belongs to them?  The Arab countries in the region rose in revolt and invaded the nascent state of Israel.  the Israelis, against all odds, prevailed, just as they did in the Six-Day war (1967) and the Yom Kippur War (1973).  In each instance Israel was heavily outnumbered in tanks, planes and troops (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, sometimes Lebanon against Israel), but managed to win and occupy formerly Egyptian and Jordanian territory.  This is the crux of the problem: Israel's continued occupation of land that the Palestinians claim is their homeland.

Following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Israel militarily occupied the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt, the Golan Heights of Syria, and the West Bank of the Jordan River (Jordan).  Each location was strategic and was used as the invasion route chosen by the Arab armies, so Israel felt justified it keeping this land.  The Sinai, which is sparsely populated, was eventually returned to Egypt, but the West Bank, heavily populated, and the Golan Heights, were not returned.  When Israel won its war of Independence in 1947, the Arabs that were living in Israel or in territory that was now occupied by Israeli forces, picked up and moved, mostly to Jordan.  After the next two wars, Israel assumed possession of the part of Jordan known as the West Bank, which was home to almost three million Arabs, who rightly identified themselves as Palestinians. Initially Israel considered annexing the West Bank permanently, and construction began on Jewish settlements.  its possible that the leaders of Israel at the time thought it might encourage the Palestinians to leave the West Bank, but they didn't.  Then the Jewish settlements became a hot-button issue in internal Israeli politics.  The moderates and the left in the Knesset demanded at least an end to construction, and at best, an evacuation of Israeli Jews.  On the other hand, the right-wing coalition not only refused to stop existing construction, they announced intentions to start new developments.  The occupying Palestinians were left to consider that three decades previously, the entire land was Arab; they were forced to move in 1947, then again in 1967.  There would not be another move.  The Golan heights of Syria did not develop into an issue of settlements; instead, it would flare-up every few years when the Syrians would demand Israeli withdrawal, and in response Israel would gas up the tanks for a nice Golan parade.

One very small section of the Egyptian Sinai was heavily populated.  The Gaza Strip borders the Mediterranean on the west, Israel on the north and east, and Egypt on the south.  The small piece of land (139 square miles) is home to almost two million Palestinians, another example of people being moved from one place to the next because of war.  At least Gaza isn't occupied by Israel.  It is administered by Hamas, a political party that is recognized as a terrorist organization in the west.  In total, roughly five million Palestinians live in Gaza and the West Bank.  They have been demanding independence for as long as I can remember.  Gaza is independent, but its economy is controlled by Israel and Egypt, who can shut its borders on a whim.  Interestingly enough, the majority of Palestinians (and descendants of the original occupants of Palestine) have probably settled and put down roots in other countries, including the United States, various European nations, Lebanon, and the Gulf States.  In a sad aside note, in some of the wealthier Arab countries, Palestinians are treated as second-class citizens and find it difficult to qualify for anything but manual labor jobs and cleaning up after people.  While screaming about how Israel mistreats the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, wealthy Arab families in Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE do just the same in their own homes to their Palestinian maids and garden workers.  Back to the Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank.  Since we are talking about almost five million souls, the resolution of this issue needs to be a priority.  When it became clear that Gaza was going to achieve some level of self-governance, the call went out to the west for financial support.  The hope was that Gaza would become a peaceful, economically successful (albeit crowded) nation, able to decide it own affairs.  Once the money started flowing in, everything changed.  The original political representative of the Palestinian people, the Palestine Liberation Organization of Yasser Arafat, eventually renounced terrorism when they realized how much money would be donated from the west to help build schools, infrastructure, etc.  Arafat and his PLO collected billions of dollars from the west, and managed to steal just about every penny.  When Arafat died, the number of bank accounts in his name (many in Paris), and the amount of money that would be inherited by his widow, was nothing short of staggering.  After the PLO, the Palestinian Authority (PA) was born to represent the interests of the Palestinian People.  Following the renouncing of terror by the PLO, two groups in the region picked up the mantle of terror, Hamas and Hezbollah.  Hamas seated itself right in the middle of the Palestinian "occupied territories", while Hezbollah, addicted to financial support from Iran and Syria, chose Lebanon as a safe place from which to lob the odd missile into northern Israeli settlements.  Once financial aid started to flow into Gaza, The PA and Hamas decided to fight for the title of "official political representative of the Palestinian community of Gaza".  Hamas won the most recent election, so they are currently the legitimate government in Gaza.  And they are also still on just about everyone's short list of nasty terrorist organizations.