Link: Hezbollah assists regime forces to retake Syrian border city.
We have been noting for the past few months that recent losses to Jabhat al-Nusrah (JN) and the Islamic Front (IS) have effectively ended any regime threat in eastern Syria. The Syrian Army still controls a few widely dispersed communities in the east (including Hasaka), but Assad's only real area of influence and control is far west Syria, from Aleppo down south to Damascus. The regime continues to control the air (except when the U.S.-led, anti-IS air coalition is operational), which has limited recent attempts by the rebels to take Aleppo. We have also noted that, along with a decreased regime presence in the east, Assad no longer seems to be receiving much support from Russia. We opined that without his Russian benefactor, that Assad would eventually be obliged to throw in the towel. I'm sorry to say that we didn't take into account the impact of increased aid from Hezbollah, and by proxy, Iran. Hezbollah fighters were instrumental in the regime's capture of Zabadani, a town located on the Syria/Lebanon border that until recently was held by rebels.
If Iranian support for the Assad regime continues (or increases), he will likely survive any offensive by JN or the IS to take Damascus or even Aleppo. Hezbollah has no problem moving fighters from Lebanon to Syria, and former rebel supply lines that went through Lebanon have been eradicated. It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah increases its military presence in Syria, or if we might start to see Iranian advisors among Assad's troops, as we have occasionally seen in Iraq. Depending on how ambitious Iran wants to be, the IS is presently confronted by Iranian-backed regime elements in Syria, and Iranian-supported militia in Iraq. Given that the IS is a Sunni-based movement, we note the extension of the conflict between Shi'a and Sunni. Iran has already influenced the rise of the Houthi movement in Yemen, and the activities of the Shi'a militias in Iran. With the involvement of Hezbollah and the increased support by Iran for the Assad regime, Iran seems intent on setting the stage for another Sunni-Shi'a conflict. As this situation develops, the United States is faced with the difficult task of identifying who is the more dangerous enemy: the IS, with its growing conventional army and its network of affiliates around the globe, or Iran, which is bound and determined to develop a nuclear weapon capability, and can't seem to stop fomenting Shi'a unrest in various hotspots in the Middle East.
All things considered, this might be a good time for the United States to allow both the Shi'a extremists and the Sunni hot heads to "whittle" each other down a bit. Not very long ago, the CIA might take the opportunity to create a covert "influence campaign", to utilize social media and other resources to agitate the two groups, and get them to go after each other. It would certainly keep their focus away from sponsoring international terrorism for a while, or at least that would be the intention. But those type of operations are a thing of the past. The Obama Admnistration would never use the CIA to conduct an operation of that nature. As things stand, we find ourselves supporting the Free Syrian Army, which when we last checked, was actively engaging regime elements, as opposed to the IS, and continuing this nebulous air campaign, that seems to generate no intelligence or news whatsoever. How much are we spending on those two initiative? When Bush was in office, didn't we hear a never-ending cacophony from the left about the taxpayers dollars being wasted? Isn't this a bit of waste as well? If not, then great, but I want to know the details: how hs it been a success?
(Separate Comment)
The Reality of Illegal Immigrant Felons in the U.S.
We have noticed a rash of news stories lately regarding illegal immigrant felons who have been allowed to stay in the United States after being released from jail, only to offend again. Because sensational news gets more attention, the stories that involve children or loss of life will always be the priority. Do you know what a "Sanctuary City is"? For those who don't, a Sanctuary City is a community that purposely choses to NOT inform Federal Law Enforcement when a foreign national felon has served their time and is being released to the street. The law requires the community local law enforcement to notify Homeland Security Deportations, so these felons can be returned to their country of nationality. But some cities, including just about all the big ones on the west coast, allow for something called "Sanctuary" to exist in their cities, because they believe that it is cruel and wrong to deport these individuals, regardless of the crime or how many times that they have re-entered the U.S. illegally.
Statistics show that certain felons are very likely to re-offend, but this doesn't matter to the Sanctuary folks. Who cares if a teenager is shot dead outside a grocery store, or a mother of two is raped and strangled to death on a bike path? The only thing that matters are the INVISIBLE rights of the foreign national who presence in our country is predicated on the fact that broke our Immigration Law, and has since racked up a few more violations. No doubt the groups opposed to Amnesty will use every one of these stories as a means to frighten and mobilize the population, but the truth is the truth. We do have a problem in this country with an outrageously high number of illegal immigrant felons, the majority of which are not presently incarcerated.
Do you know where your children are?
Showing posts with label Houthi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Houthi. Show all posts
Friday, July 10, 2015
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
Where The Hell Is Yemen And Why Should I Care?
Links: A. Yemen on Wikipedia
B. CIA drone kills suspected CIA operatives
Yemen is the Muslim nation that occupies the strategic southwest corner of the Arabian
peninsula. Depending on your tastes, the landscape can be described in various ways. The coasts of Yemen include both barren, rocky cliffs and beautiful sand beaches. The interior of Yemen is mountainous in places, as the Al-Sarat Range bisects northern Yemen. The entire country is defined by a mountainous interior which falls to the sea on one side and to the Rub' Al Khali (the empty quarter) and Saudi Arabia on the other. Not surprisingly, Yemen reminds me of the Dodecanese Islands of Greece. Unless it was raining, Yemen always seemed to be sun-drenched, with little vegetation except for wait-to-shoulder high native shrubs. Principal agricultural commodities include fruit (mangoes), sorghum, grain, cotton, and qat. To use a favorite term from my childhood, the Yemenis grow a "buttload" of qat, and it gets exported everywhere. Travel to Somalia, Kenya, Mauritius, and they will tell you that Yemeni qat is the best. Heck, as far as I know, it may only grow in Yemen. I can't recall ever seeing a woman chewing qat, but I'm sure it happens. Its much like chewing tobacco. You take a few leaves, squeeze together and put them in your mouth, either between your bottom lip and gums or in the pouch of your cheek. When you collect enough spit, you do
what comes natural. Let me tell you, I've seen my share of stoners and potheads, but these qat chewers are just as dedicated. They chew while working, from sun-up until sun-down, and they partake when relaxing. I've been chewing tobacco (dipping) off and on for thirty-plus years, so I had to give it a shot. To tell the truth, I never noticed much except for a bit of a headache that lasted all afternoon. I've heard that its supposed to be a bit like marijuana, but I've never smoked pot, so I can't compare.
Taking a look at Yemen on a map, you can see why I call it "the elbow country": since the end of the civil war between north and south, Yemen resembles an elbow and a bit of a forearm. At one time, Yemen was a much-valued gem in the crown of the Ottoman Empire. The area has always been active in trading, and old history books make mention of the port city of Mocha as being an important location for bartering just about everything under the sun. This is what I love about places like Yemen; it's almost as if time has stood still. An ancient map of this area identifies Yemen as "Arabia Felix", which translated from Latin means "Happy Arabia". That same map, which may be centuries and centuries old, will identify cities that still exist today. No wonder Yemen is a playground for Geographers and Archaeologists. With the arrival of the Europeans, the usual scenario unfolded. Portugal wanted it, as did the British. It was part of the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman for many years, until the arrival of the Ottoman Turks, who created a national border of sorts. The Turks were removed following the end of World War I and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire (1922), leaving Yemen in the cold, gluttonous hands of the English, who realized that the value in Yemen was strategic, not economic.
Between 1918 and 1967, the territory was in a constant disarray. The British garrisoned a few of the larger towns, but were unable to subdue the tribal forces who were under various different leaders and, of course, were also trying to slit each other's throats. Two treaties were signed with the British (in 1934 and 1940), which effectively decided the issue, although conflict continued. The Yemeni people were able to enjoy a few decades of peace that coincided with the second world war. But in 1967, the southern half of Yemen (Aden), split from the north. This led to a civil war which seemed to go on forever. In May 1990, both sides agreed to unification, and a treaty was signed. Things were looking up . . . and then Al-Qaeda arrived.
Shockingly, Al-Qaeda's presence in Yemen was not part of a plot to kill Americans. Al-Qaeda, which is based on Sunni teachings, became active in Yemen in opposition to the actions of the Houthis, (the Shia Muslims of Yemen). Yemen is one of those Muslim nations with a large population of both Sunni and Shia. As has been the model, for many years the Sunni were accused of keeping the Shia (Houthi) from succeeding in business or participating in government. With a bit of help from Iran, the Houthi armed themselves and started making demands at the end of an AK-47. The Sunni-led government was in a real pickle. Al-Qaeda was active in the southern coastal areas around Aden, but Yemeni President (and Sunni) Hadi could not ally himself and his government to Al-Qaeda because the United States was also in town, and up to that point, had been supporting Hadi in his efforts to stay in power. Believe it or not, the U.S. military largely avoided involvement in the Houthi/Hadi conflict. The U.S. presence in Yemen was for one purpose; to capture and kill members of Al-Qaeda. Your see, Al-Qaeda wasn't in Yemen just to represent Sunni interests militarily, Al-Qaeda was in Yemen to provide training to its operatives.
When George W. Bush and the United States invaded Iraq and Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2003, we exposed Al-Qaeda's most glaring weakness. Since we forced the issue into Bin Laden's own backyard, he had no choice but to respond. The U.S. military engaged fighters from the Taliban, from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and from other loosely-named but directly AQ-affiliated groups. The bad guys had to funnel all their resources into the fight in Iraq and Afghanistan, and there wasn't much time to plan and conduct another 9-11. But Bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri (probably more Al-Zawahiri) realized that the struggle needed something resembling a conventional army. Recruitment drives went into action, especially targeting ex-military in the UK, France and the United States. Recruitment also increased dramatically in Africa. If Al-Qaeda was going to build an army, they needed soldiers. The recruits who showed intelligence were directed towards Al-Qaeda, who continued to be the cerebral part of the machine, while the rest were sent to Yemen, to learn how to be soldiers. The Houthi development complicated what was turning into a war between Al-Qaeda recruits and armed U.S. drones.
This past weekend, the Hadi government fell. The capital of Sana'a is calm, and the Houthi appear to be following through with their pledge to keep the peace. The Houthi are the majority in north Yemen, which bodes well for a bit of down-time to try and group (for all sides). Fortunately, the U.S. military has been extremely discreet when it comes to Yemen. A real effort is being made to locate, target, and kill Al-Qaeda operatives. I don't believe any chances are taken which involve civilians, which at this stage is the correct move. Why is Yemen important? Because Al-Qaeda has decided to use it as a training location for its operatives. As the war in Syria continues, and the connections between Al-Qaeda and ISIS become more apparent, intelligence analysts will start to notice that some ISIS fighters were trained in Yemen, and the overall picture will become much more clear.
B. CIA drone kills suspected CIA operatives
Yemen is the Muslim nation that occupies the strategic southwest corner of the Arabian
 |
| Man chewing qat in Yemen Source: |
Taking a look at Yemen on a map, you can see why I call it "the elbow country": since the end of the civil war between north and south, Yemen resembles an elbow and a bit of a forearm. At one time, Yemen was a much-valued gem in the crown of the Ottoman Empire. The area has always been active in trading, and old history books make mention of the port city of Mocha as being an important location for bartering just about everything under the sun. This is what I love about places like Yemen; it's almost as if time has stood still. An ancient map of this area identifies Yemen as "Arabia Felix", which translated from Latin means "Happy Arabia". That same map, which may be centuries and centuries old, will identify cities that still exist today. No wonder Yemen is a playground for Geographers and Archaeologists. With the arrival of the Europeans, the usual scenario unfolded. Portugal wanted it, as did the British. It was part of the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman for many years, until the arrival of the Ottoman Turks, who created a national border of sorts. The Turks were removed following the end of World War I and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire (1922), leaving Yemen in the cold, gluttonous hands of the English, who realized that the value in Yemen was strategic, not economic.
Between 1918 and 1967, the territory was in a constant disarray. The British garrisoned a few of the larger towns, but were unable to subdue the tribal forces who were under various different leaders and, of course, were also trying to slit each other's throats. Two treaties were signed with the British (in 1934 and 1940), which effectively decided the issue, although conflict continued. The Yemeni people were able to enjoy a few decades of peace that coincided with the second world war. But in 1967, the southern half of Yemen (Aden), split from the north. This led to a civil war which seemed to go on forever. In May 1990, both sides agreed to unification, and a treaty was signed. Things were looking up . . . and then Al-Qaeda arrived.
Shockingly, Al-Qaeda's presence in Yemen was not part of a plot to kill Americans. Al-Qaeda, which is based on Sunni teachings, became active in Yemen in opposition to the actions of the Houthis, (the Shia Muslims of Yemen). Yemen is one of those Muslim nations with a large population of both Sunni and Shia. As has been the model, for many years the Sunni were accused of keeping the Shia (Houthi) from succeeding in business or participating in government. With a bit of help from Iran, the Houthi armed themselves and started making demands at the end of an AK-47. The Sunni-led government was in a real pickle. Al-Qaeda was active in the southern coastal areas around Aden, but Yemeni President (and Sunni) Hadi could not ally himself and his government to Al-Qaeda because the United States was also in town, and up to that point, had been supporting Hadi in his efforts to stay in power. Believe it or not, the U.S. military largely avoided involvement in the Houthi/Hadi conflict. The U.S. presence in Yemen was for one purpose; to capture and kill members of Al-Qaeda. Your see, Al-Qaeda wasn't in Yemen just to represent Sunni interests militarily, Al-Qaeda was in Yemen to provide training to its operatives.
When George W. Bush and the United States invaded Iraq and Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2003, we exposed Al-Qaeda's most glaring weakness. Since we forced the issue into Bin Laden's own backyard, he had no choice but to respond. The U.S. military engaged fighters from the Taliban, from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and from other loosely-named but directly AQ-affiliated groups. The bad guys had to funnel all their resources into the fight in Iraq and Afghanistan, and there wasn't much time to plan and conduct another 9-11. But Bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri (probably more Al-Zawahiri) realized that the struggle needed something resembling a conventional army. Recruitment drives went into action, especially targeting ex-military in the UK, France and the United States. Recruitment also increased dramatically in Africa. If Al-Qaeda was going to build an army, they needed soldiers. The recruits who showed intelligence were directed towards Al-Qaeda, who continued to be the cerebral part of the machine, while the rest were sent to Yemen, to learn how to be soldiers. The Houthi development complicated what was turning into a war between Al-Qaeda recruits and armed U.S. drones.
This past weekend, the Hadi government fell. The capital of Sana'a is calm, and the Houthi appear to be following through with their pledge to keep the peace. The Houthi are the majority in north Yemen, which bodes well for a bit of down-time to try and group (for all sides). Fortunately, the U.S. military has been extremely discreet when it comes to Yemen. A real effort is being made to locate, target, and kill Al-Qaeda operatives. I don't believe any chances are taken which involve civilians, which at this stage is the correct move. Why is Yemen important? Because Al-Qaeda has decided to use it as a training location for its operatives. As the war in Syria continues, and the connections between Al-Qaeda and ISIS become more apparent, intelligence analysts will start to notice that some ISIS fighters were trained in Yemen, and the overall picture will become much more clear.
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