Is Yemen, 2015, a renewal of the Battle of Karbala, 680 AD?

Links: A. Saudi military on Yemeni border.
           B. Is conflict in Yemen a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran?

No need to get out your history books or almanacs, unless you really want to.  The Battle of Karbala was fought in central Iraq in 680 AD, with most religious scholars agreeing that the

violent clash went a long way to settling the question of The Prophet Mohammed's succession.  This is important because the two opponents came to represent the Sunni and Shia elements within Islam.  Until recently, the two groups seemed to co-exist within an awkward kind of avoidance, although on a few occasions, the international community has been given a glimpse of the emotions involved in the Sunni-Shia schism.  Following the first Gulf War, once it became apparent that President George H. Bush was not going to force Saddam Hussein from power, Saddam fired-up what was left of his war machine and butchered thousands of Shia in areas south of Iraq.  Saddam was legitimately concerned that the "Marsh Arabs", as these particular Shia were called, were rising up to possibly threaten his hold on power.  This was the moment in life that I went over to an Encyclopedia and educated myself on the Sunni and the Shia.  Having spent time in Iraq within the last decade, I became familiar with the two groups and the antagonism that basically defines their relationship.  Simply put, since Karbala in 680 AD, the Shia have been looking for a little respect.  For the most part, the Sunni are considered better educated, more intelligent, and wealthier.  The Shia are more the "manual laborers and farmers" of Islam, and they have a tendency to carry a chip on their shoulder as big as Manhattan.

In the last fifty years, the Shia, who are the majority in only two countries (Lebanon being a plurality, folks), have fought fiercely for causes that they support.  Following the revolution in Iran in 1979-1980, which deposed the Pahlavi Dynasty, the Shia-led government of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini threw everything but the kitchen sink at Saddam Hussein during the Iran-Iraq War.  Since then, the Shia seem to be more comfortable standing up for their interests.  In Iraq in 2005, the Shia were quick to create militias to defend Shia communities and Holy Sites, when it became apparent that certain anti-U.S. groups were going to incite various causes to violence.  The Iranians were more than happy to provide training and equipment to these militias, who are even more powerful and active today than they were during the insurgency.  The Iranian government, and the Guardian Council in Qom, must be pleased by the expression of free will exhibited by the Shia Houthis of Yemen.  The Houthis have been around for sometime, and to their credit, they tried a number of non-violent approaches to the former government over the years, in an attempt to end discrimination against the Houthi community.  Eventually they were compelled to resort to violence, and the Yemeni government, already under siege from Al-Qaeda, was a bit of an easy target.  Today, as April passes us by, The Houthis are in control of the capital city of Sana, and are strategically positioned to move against Yemen's second city (and port/economic lifeline), Aden.  Interestingly enough, just to the east of Aden lies a reasonably large area which is controlled by (Sunni) Al-Qaeda.  And just when things couldn't get any more confusing, the Royal Saudi Arabian Air Force, which continues to recognize the legitimacy of the recently removed Yemeni government, has started bombing Houthi forces. 

Why do the Saudis care if the Houthis run the table in Yemen?  Who knows, they may do a better job than the last few thugs that sat in Sana.  Actually, the answer is simple: the Saudis cannot continence a Shia government on the Arabian Peninsula (Bahrain is an island, so it doesn't count), and certainly not with a common border.  Publicly, the Saudis claim that they are only trying to restore peace and the democratically elected Yemeni government.  The truth is, the Saudis and the Iranians can't stand each other, and the Houthis have been heavily supported by Iran since the beginning.  Mark my word, the Saudis will do whatever is necessarily to guarantee that the Iranians do not have a presence on the Arabian Peninsula.  Just as I was starting this post, I noticed a news report come across the wire (yes, folks...I'm so cool and important that I have one of those "news wires") that Iranian warships were headed for Yemen.  Now that would be an

Yemen

escalation along the lines of Kennedy and Khrushchev back in 1962.  Then, as I was looking for an additional article, I came across The Times Of Israel piece titled, "Iran sends battleships to Yemen amid standoff with Saudis".  I had to take a break, I was laughing so hard.  A journalist actually WROTE that header, and then added a photo of a warship the size of a shrimp boat flying the Iranian flag!  I guess "battleships" ain't what they used to be.  Regardless of my welcome moment of humor, be assured that the Iranian navy only has a handful of ships that are capable of sailing as far as Yemen.  The people of Aden need not lose any sleep; I can categorically guarantee that tomorrow morning when they wake up and look in the direction of the Indian Ocean, they will not see Iranian battleships on the horizon.

Which brings me to my next point of interest.  This is something my friend Jennifer and I have been discussing for a few weeks now.  Occasionally the media will release a story that mentions "Saudi ground forces", or "Saudi armor being moved to the Yemeni border".  For the moment, this is the most important issue that comes to my mind.  The Saudis have committed themselves to some level of conflict by conducting air operations against Houthi targets in Sana and other strategic locations.  If the Houthis were to go head-to-head against the Saudi military, the result would be beyond ugly.  It would be a monumental mismatch.  As far as I know, what was the Yemeni Army is still making noise in and around Aden (Houthis on one side, Al-Qaeda on the other....one hell of a spot to be in).  If so, then in all likelihood the Houthis have not taken possession of the most modern and useful military vehicles and equipment.  So we are talking about Abrams tanks, state-of-the-art Artillery (trained in the Iraq war), fully-equipped infantry and special forces, support from helicopter gunships and guided missiles, etc., on one side, and the Houthis on the other.  A few months back I commented that I had seen a video of the Houthis storming some government building in Sana, and actually saw a guy on a camel, with a musket. Holy Lawrence of Arabia, folks.  Well, at least, historically, we are on the right continent.

The Saudis should make short work of the Houthis, and then what?  Clean out Al-Qaeda from eastern Yemen?  Now here is the potential complication that I have been discussing with Jennifer.  Everyone keeps talking about a Saudi ground invasion as if its a simple operation.  No way.  The Saudi armor is normally home-based in the north of the country and around Riyadh (I'm sure some units are also deployed in the Mecca/Medina/Jeddah triangle).  Would the Saudis transport their armor and artillery down west, to the coast, then down the coast road to Yemen?  Or is there another route that skirts the Rub al-Khali?  Whatever the case, for Saudi Arabia to relocate a military force large enough to finish the job at hand (the destruction of the Houthis), it would involve the mobilization of multiple divisions.  All of this activity should be visible for the world to watch on satellite.  I have yet to hear any media announce that a full-scale Saudi military build-up is taking place near Najran or Abu Arish.  So if it hasn't been noted, then how can it be taking place?  Now I'm taking a big chance with this post, because I'm writing it four days before it will see the light of day.  Many things can happen since then which would resolve the issues I have pointed out.  But as things stand today, from the perspective of this armchair general, I do not believe Saudi Arabia is preparing a full-out ground invasion of Yemen.     

Where The Hell Is Yemen And Why Should I Care?

Links: A. Yemen on Wikipedia
           B. CIA drone kills suspected CIA operatives

Yemen is the Muslim nation that occupies the strategic southwest corner of the Arabian

peninsula.  Depending on your tastes, the landscape can be described in various ways.  The coasts of Yemen include both barren, rocky cliffs and beautiful sand beaches.  The interior of Yemen is mountainous in places, as the Al-Sarat Range bisects northern Yemen.  The entire country is defined by a mountainous interior which falls to the sea on one side and to the Rub' Al Khali (the empty quarter) and Saudi Arabia on the other.  Not surprisingly, Yemen reminds me of the Dodecanese Islands of Greece.  Unless it was raining, Yemen always seemed to be sun-drenched, with little vegetation except for wait-to-shoulder high native shrubs.  Principal agricultural commodities include fruit (mangoes), sorghum, grain, cotton, and qat.  To use a favorite term from my childhood, the Yemenis grow a "buttload" of qat, and it gets exported everywhere.  Travel to Somalia, Kenya, Mauritius, and they will tell you that Yemeni qat is the best.  Heck, as far as I know, it may only grow in Yemen.  I can't recall ever seeing a woman chewing qat, but I'm sure it happens.  Its much like chewing tobacco.  You take a few leaves, squeeze together and put them in your mouth, either between your bottom lip and gums or in the pouch of your cheek.  When you collect enough spit, you do

Man chewing qat in Yemen
Source: Ferdinand Reus 

what comes natural.  Let me tell you, I've seen my share of stoners and potheads, but these qat chewers are just as dedicated.  They chew while working, from sun-up until sun-down, and they partake when relaxing.  I've been chewing tobacco (dipping) off and on for thirty-plus years, so I had to give it a shot.  To tell the truth, I never noticed much except for a bit of a headache that lasted all afternoon. I've heard that its supposed to be a bit like marijuana, but I've never smoked pot, so I can't compare.

Taking a look at Yemen on a map, you can see why I call it "the elbow country": since the end of the civil war between north and south, Yemen resembles an elbow and a bit of a forearm.  At one time, Yemen was a much-valued gem in the crown of the Ottoman Empire.  The area has always been active in trading, and old history books make mention of the port city of Mocha as being an important location for bartering just about everything under the sun.  This is what I love about places like Yemen; it's almost as if time has stood still.  An ancient map of this area identifies Yemen as "Arabia Felix", which translated from Latin means "Happy Arabia".  That same map, which may be centuries and centuries old, will identify cities that still exist today.  No wonder Yemen is a playground for Geographers and Archaeologists.  With the arrival of the Europeans, the usual scenario unfolded.  Portugal wanted it, as did the British.  It was part of the Sultanate of Muscat and Oman for many years, until the arrival of the Ottoman Turks, who created a national border of sorts.  The Turks were removed following the end of World War I and the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire (1922), leaving Yemen in the cold, gluttonous hands of the English, who realized that the value in Yemen was strategic, not economic.

Between 1918 and 1967, the territory was in a constant disarray.  The British garrisoned a few of the larger towns, but were unable to subdue the tribal forces who were under various different leaders and, of course, were also trying to slit each other's throats.  Two treaties were signed with the British (in 1934 and 1940), which effectively decided the issue, although conflict continued.  The Yemeni people were able to enjoy a few decades of peace that coincided with the second world war.  But in 1967, the southern half of Yemen (Aden), split from the north.  This led to a civil war which seemed to go on forever.  In May 1990, both sides agreed to unification, and a treaty was signed.  Things were looking up . . . and then Al-Qaeda arrived. 

Shockingly, Al-Qaeda's presence in Yemen was not part of a plot to kill Americans.  Al-Qaeda, which is based on Sunni teachings, became active in Yemen in opposition to the actions of the Houthis, (the Shia Muslims of Yemen).  Yemen is one of those Muslim nations with a large population of both Sunni and Shia.  As has been the model, for many years the Sunni were accused of keeping the Shia (Houthi) from succeeding in business or participating in government.  With a bit of help from Iran, the Houthi armed themselves and started making demands at the end of an AK-47.  The Sunni-led government was in a real pickle.  Al-Qaeda was active in the southern coastal areas around Aden, but Yemeni President (and Sunni) Hadi could not ally himself and his government to Al-Qaeda because the United States was also in town, and up to that point, had been supporting Hadi in his efforts to stay in power.  Believe it or not, the U.S. military largely avoided involvement in the Houthi/Hadi conflict.  The U.S. presence in Yemen was for one purpose; to capture and kill members of Al-Qaeda.  Your see, Al-Qaeda wasn't in Yemen just to represent Sunni interests militarily, Al-Qaeda was in Yemen to provide training to its operatives.

When George W. Bush and the United States invaded Iraq and Afghanistan as part of Operation Enduring Freedom in 2003, we exposed Al-Qaeda's most glaring weakness.  Since we forced the issue into Bin Laden's own backyard, he had no choice but to respond.  The U.S. military engaged fighters from the Taliban, from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and from other loosely-named but directly AQ-affiliated groups.  The bad guys had to funnel all their resources into the fight in Iraq and Afghanistan, and there wasn't much time to plan and conduct another 9-11.  But Bin Laden and Al-Zawahiri (probably more Al-Zawahiri) realized that the struggle needed something resembling a conventional army.  Recruitment drives went into action, especially targeting ex-military in the UK, France and the United States.  Recruitment also increased dramatically in Africa.  If Al-Qaeda was going to build an army, they needed soldiers. The recruits who showed intelligence were directed towards Al-Qaeda, who continued to be the cerebral part of the machine, while the rest were sent to Yemen, to learn how to be soldiers.  The Houthi development complicated what was turning into a war between Al-Qaeda recruits and armed U.S. drones.

This past weekend, the Hadi government fell.  The capital of Sana'a is calm, and the Houthi appear to be following through with their pledge to keep the peace.  The Houthi are the majority in north Yemen, which bodes well for a bit of down-time to try and group (for all sides).  Fortunately, the U.S. military has been extremely discreet when it comes to Yemen.  A real effort is being made to locate, target, and kill Al-Qaeda operatives.  I don't believe any chances are taken which involve civilians, which at this stage is the correct move.  Why is Yemen important?  Because Al-Qaeda has decided to use it as a training location for its operatives.  As the war in Syria continues, and the connections between Al-Qaeda and ISIS become more apparent, intelligence analysts will start to notice that some ISIS fighters were trained in Yemen, and the overall picture will become much more clear.          

Where In The Hell is Arabia Felix?

Link: Yemen As An Example?


Missile Fired Near U.S. Embassy In Yemen


("Further more, Yemen is a leading pioneer in Democratic practice; lots of brothers and sisters testified on that".)*


Recently I had an important conversation with my brother Joe regarding the abundance of blogs focusing on National Security, and how my modest effort could be most effective.  Joe pointed out that my blog has already found a niche, because unlike the repetitive, "cut-and-paste" blogs that do a nice job of disseminating news, my blog is both proactive and reactive.  I have no problem dedicating an entire post to a question from a reader (in fact, I welcome them), and I use my experience and intuition to post about people and places that will be part of tomorrow's news cycle.  Don't misunderstand, I appreciate the larger, "neater" blogs that break down current events by country (alphabetically as well!); the Longest War Journal is my favorite and gets a visit from my address everyday.  But as Joe pointed out, what seems to be missing is a bit of the ol' human touch.  My style is not for everyone.  My book is written in this fashion, so be forewarned (excerpts coming within the next few weeks, Insh'Allah).

I love Yemen.  It is one of the few places left on the earth where you can have a glass of tea next to a donkey.  So much about Yemen remains as it was when Europeans first arrived and crowned this mountainous desert "Arabia Felix" (Felix is Latin for happy, blessed, fortunate, which sadly has never really applied to Yemen).  Until 1915 or so, Yemen, or more correctly the towns of Mocha and Sana'a, were part of the Ottoman Empire, and Aden belong to Britain.  After World War One, the Zaydi Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen was established in North Yemen, and the Brits continued to occupy South Yemen and Aden.  In 1962 north Yemen became the Yemen Arab Republic, and in 1967 the south chose a socialist path to independence, as the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen.  It seemed as if the two sides were always at war, but in 1990, a union was created, and the modern state of Yemen was born (as always, I'm forced to leave out tons of amazing history, especially pre-European.  Thank goodness for Wikipedia).

In 2004, the Hawthis, a Zaydi Shia insurgent group, accusing the Yemeni government of discrimination against the Shia, declared war.  The government accused the Hawthis of trying to implement Sharia Law.  Al-Qaeda, which is basically a Sunni-affiliated terrorist group, arrived in 2009 and has at times fought on the side of the government against the Shia Hawthis.  This fact, together with Saudi Arabia's proximity to Yemen, allowed Al-Qaeda to develop a strong presence in Yemen.  Yemeni President Ali Saleh has played both sides of the fence on numerous occasions.  Now that the United States has decided that Yemen deserves some attention (and taxpayer dollars), Saleh has become Uncle Sam's best buddy.  As the links point out, today Yemen is sorting through a mess that is very similar to Syria's.  A Sunni-Shia conflict continues (with Al-Qaeda continuing to sympathize with the Sunni cause), alongside a U.S. military effort to destroy Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).  On different occasions Saleh has fallen from power, only to pop back up again, like a Dervish Jack In The Box.  Presently Saleh and the Yemeni government are working with the United States to destroy AQAP.  Every month or so we get a news story about a successful drone attack on Al-Qaeda encampments.  In fact, the U.S. military effort (with the CIA playing a pivotal part) has had great success hunting down and killing various Al-Qaeda targets.  Because of these successes (and the apparent cooperation of the Saleh government), the Obama Administration considers Yemen to be a success in the war on terror.  As is always the case in this part of the world, the reality can never be covered with just one sentence.

In the last few weeks, the Hawthi Movement has increased its pressure on the Saleh government.  Bit by bit, the capital city is falling under the authority of the Hawthis.  The CIA is aware of events as they occur, and surely is keeping the Administration informed.  But the Administration does not want to let go of its one success story, so we have a President who is, for all practical purposes, burying his head in the sand.  The Hawthis, no friend of Al-Qaeda, have been very careful not to piss off the Americans. Considering the amount of resources that the U.S. military and intelligence have tied up in Yemen, it would be in our best interest to avoid pissing off the Hawthis (I'm sure Sana'a is flooded with Iranian intelligence operatives).  If the Saleh government falls, lets hope that the Obama Administration can diplomatically shift our support from the Sunni government to the Shia Hawthis, and continue our operations against Al-Qaeda.  All indications are that the Hawthis would like nothing more than to have the Al-Qaeda presence removed from Yemen (the "enemy of my enemy is my friend" cliché is getting worked to death, for Heaven's sake).  What we have here is an opportunity.  If the Obama Administration can safely navigate the waters of this internal Yemeni conflict (in truth its a civil war), and end up on the other side, still droning the hell out of Al-Qaeda, it will be an indication that just maybe, the same result can be expected in Syria.  Its almost like an opportunity for the Foggy Bottom Diplomats to practice once, before the big game.

*Ali A. Saleh, President of Yemen