Biden Humiliated By Turkey

Link: A. Biden Looking Foolish In Turkey
          B. Taliban On The Move

Please read the links before going any further.  I don't want to repeat the details which are included, and they are essential to the discussion today.  These two links bring the cold hard truth home to our doorstep.  Our foreign policy is a complete failure; and utter disaster.  I can't recall a foreign policy this opaque, weak, and self-defeating in the 238-year history of our Republic.  Vice President Joe Biden, unable to sit still for five minutes because in his mind he should be president, continues to expand the traditional role of the office.  Maybe I shouldn't blame Crazy Uncle Joe.  Instead of making the trip to Turkey himself, President Obama continued his weekly diet of executive actions, golf, and fund-raising.  After Biden insulted Turkish President Erdogan last month (and screwed up the less-than publicized apology which was only reported on Foxnews), he was the last person who should have making a trip to Turkey.  It provided all the U.S.-hating groups, including the one who abused our sailors last month, with an opportunity to take to the streets and protest this Great Satan.  The Turkish press had a field day.  And as usual, Crazy Uncle Joe had no clue what was going on, returning back to the United States to report that the trip had been a "tremendous success".  While Biden was describing his diplomatic coup to anyone who would listen (CNN, NPR, MSNBC, CNBC, and CBS, who combined don't equal the audience of Foxnews), Erdogan was openly and pointedly spewing egregious insults to the United States.  Erdogan stated that Turkey was "against impertinence, recklessness, and endless demands".  "Why is someone coming to this region from 12,000 kilometers away?", Erdogan asked rhetorically to a meeting of Turkish businessmen in Ankara.  The U.S. Incirlik Air Force Base in Turkey has been denied permission to fly sorties against Islamic State targets in Syria and Iraq.  This makes the operation that much more expensive and complicated.  The Turks refused to allow the use of Incirlik during Operation Enduring Freedom as well, and President Bush was the first leader to bend over and touch toes for Erdogan.  What I would give for a leader in the White House! Ronald Reagan would have told the Turks that if you won't let us use our Air Base, then we will shut it.  No more rent, no more financial support to the local economy, no more U.S. military families supporting the Turkish tourist industry, and most important, no more sales of F16s or spare parts to the Turkish Air Force.  Instead, we allow tin-horn dictators like Putin, Erdogan and Assad to determine our foreign policy.  Erdogan had plenty of opportunities to intervene militarily in Syria and remove Assad before the beginning of the current anti-Islamic State air campaign.  Instead of facing the music for his lack of nerve, he just kicks more sand I our face. 

The Taliban is alive and well and establishing a military presence in Kabul.  Historically, this is the first step towards turning the capital city into a urban war zone, which will allow the Taliban, who are much more comfortable with guerilla-type tactics, to occupy the city one house, one street, one neighborhood at a time.  Before the Soviets departed in 1980, they installed a puppet government in Kabul which was supported by a reasonably sized and well-equipped army.  The fear was that this Soviet-back government was going to keep control of some of the larger cities while the Mujahideen took over the rest of the country.  Events didn't play out as expected, as the Mujahideen (we call them "The Taliban" nowadays) moved into the cities and began a campaign of destabilization of authority.  It happened so quickly that the Russians had no opportunity to evacuate the majority of their remaining resources in Kabul.  Deja vu, folks, deja vu.  The U.S. troops left in Afghanistan are under instructions to complete training assignments with the Afghan Army and also to protect remaining U.S. Bases as resources are evacuated back to Europe and the United States.  Is there any question that a year or so after the last U.S. soldier departs, the Taliban will be back in power?  Not to me there isn't.  President Obama will then have the honor of proudly declaring both Afghanistan and Iraq "free of the U.S. military".  Just how much does this guy hate the military? 

As for December 2014, Iraq is embroiled in a conflict against Islamic extremists, and the only real military support is coming from Iran.  The Iranians never met a vacuum that they didn't fill.  All the positive developments from Operation Enduring Freedom are either gone or in jeopardy.  Afghanistan is producing poppies for drug production again like nobodies business.  It is estimated that the Islamic State is benefitting financially from the opium trade.  While Iraq and the Kurds fight for survival against the Islamic State, and Syria continues to be ground zero for Islamic State strategic successes, the United States continues to lead an air campaign (with the support of the Saudis, the UAE, and Qatar) that is beginning to appear ineffectual.  As highlighted by a recent post, the Islamic State is so fat in resources that it has started the process of expansion into north Africa.  By the way, are we still training the New Syrian Army?  Has anyone heard an update recently?  I've been waiting patiently for some clarification on the alleged "defensive posture only" intentions of this army which is being trained and equipped by the U.S. taxpayer.

What is our foreign policy and military strategy in Syria?  Iraq?  What about Afghanistan?  When the Taliban retakes the country and all the teachers are shot, the little schoolgirls beaten and the schools burned to the ground, will we establish diplomatic relations with the Taliban?  What are we trying to achieve with the air campaign in Syria?  if we destroy the Islamic State, Bashir al-Assad and his recently refurbished army and air force will retake the country.  Putin will be thrilled, but is that in our best interest?  With regards to Turkey, will the administration have any response to the public insults, the physical assault of our sailors, and anti-U.S. speeches and demonstrations?

I invite any defender of this administration to address these questions here on my blog.  You will have the same amount of space that I use, and you will see no rebuttal for the entire day.  Please come and explain what we can expect in the next two years in the way of diplomacy.  And help us understand what exactly is going on with the New Syrian Army and the billions being spent to stand it up.  Have we written off Iraq and Afghanistan?  If not, what are our diplomatic options and initiatives to protect the freedoms and rights that the people of Iraq and Afghanistan have been able to enjoy for the past few years?  Those rights and freedoms were obtained with the blood and sweat of U.S. soldiers.  Doesn't that give us some equity in the evolving situation?      

Islamic State Expanding Into North Africa

Link: Islamic State Pushes Into North Africa

For decades, north Africa and the Sahel have always been Al-Qaeda territory, at least as far as butchers and beheaders are concerned.  But as the Islamic State (IS) continues to

exhibit a potent growth rate, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM) had better make sure they've collected their dues this month;  the IS is the new extremist bad-boy club on the block, and they intend on co-opting everyone within range of a bullet.  In the link above, I paid particular attention to comments made by Thomas Joscelyn, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, who believes that we should expect the IS to become more active in north Africa.  Joscelyn is a treasure trove of knowledge regarding events in the Near East, and his real-time analysis is always spot-on.  He is the main reason I am such a devotee of The Long War Journal (www.longwarjournal.org).

So the IS has decided to expand westward.  I'm assuming that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has his own version of Manifest Destiny.  The truth is, the ground is ripe for seeding, especially in the Sudan and Libya.  But lets start in Egypt.  The IS has a variety of scapegoats to drag out in this country, including the traditional whipping boy: the Coptic Christians.  For the life of me I can't fathom how there can be any Christians left in Egypt, let alone Coptic Christians.  They can jump on the "anti-military" bandwagon, but I think that bus is full.  Personally, I don't see the IS finding a receptive audience in Egypt.  I think Morsi was as a religious of a leader as the Egyptian people would like.  Egypt is a country with a modern communications infrastructure.  The people understand the difference between progress and trading in the used Renault for a camel.  I believe the people of Egypt, the vocal young populace in particular, want both a democratic system of government and economic progress.  The IS stands for neither.  On the other hand, Libya is the perfect breeding ground for giant fleas (like the folks we refer to as the IS).  When authority has broken down, and I mean packed up and completely left town, people will look to just about anyone for leadership.  The IS has recently become the governing body for the town of Darna. What the hell is Darna?  It's a start, that's what it is; and the Islamic State will take measures in Darna that will be observed by other communities.  We all know that the Islamic State is well-funded.  All they have to do is feed the people of Darna, maybe get the power turned back on, and keep the muggers and rapists off the streets (and back in the IS camp where they belong).  The IS has used this recipe to co-opt communities in Syria and Iraq, and the formula will work just fine in Libya.  What absolutely amazes me is that western companies are still able to keep their petroleum operations functioning.  I imagine that a huge amount of money is being paid to private security armies, but just how much longer are these operations going to be feasible?  And here comes the IS.  Let Mookie make a prediction.  In roughly six months or less, Libya is going to return to the headlines.  No one wants the IS to take possession of the petroleum set-ups in Libya anymore than the ones they fight for in Baiji, Iraq, where the battle continues on currently.

Let move south to the Sudan.  The government currently sitting in Khartoum would make great badminton partners for al-Baghdadi and his herd.  President Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Court in the Hague, loves to send his minions on "Christian

slaughtering" expeditions.  The Sudan (force of habit...I say "the Sudan" and "the Cameroon" and a few other left-over examples of colonial bad manners) is no longer what it used to be.  We now have a South Sudan, but don't ask me who is President, or even the name of the capital city (Juba, maybe?).  I believe that the IS would find a warm welcome in Khartoum, as al-Bashir and al-Baghdadi seem to adhere to the same brand of extreme Islam.  I can't imagine that the IS would stretch its Caliphate map to include the Sudan, and al-Bashir would welcome any opportunity to stick his finger in the eye of the EU and the United States.  Khartoum would be an ideal staging ground for an IS expansion into Chad, Niger and Mali.  The people of Saharan Africa would probably welcome the IS, since no one else seems to give a damn about them.  Mali is already dealing with a re-emergence of AQIM (who, interestingly enough, keep stirring up shit in Niger).  With the west focused almost exclusively on Ebola, and AQIM a shadow of its former self, a bit of a vacuum does exist.  North of Boko Haram in Nigeria, west of Khartoum, and east of Mauritania is where the IS will find its most fertile recruitment locations.  Folks will look at the map and say, "Mookie, have you lost your mind?  The only thing east of Mauritania is the Sahara Desert!"  Believe it or not, people live in that desert.  But its the communities on the very periphery of the Sahara that cause me concern.  A strict form of Islam is enforced, which promotes reliance on family ties and inter-dependence.  In many ways, adherence to strict principles of Islam have helped many of these villages and communities survive.  Al Qaeda had no trouble taking route here, and I can't imagine that the IS will either.  The bunch of filthy rich investors with money in the gold and diamond mines of west Africa had better keep an eye on this potential problem.