Developments in Iraq, Syria.

Links: A. Iraqi forces confront ISIS in Anbar.
           B. Al-Qaeda celebrates as Assad regime collapses.


In a positive move, the Iraqi military has begun a well-supported effort to recapture the city of Ramadi and roll-up ISIS fighters in eastern Anbar Province. In a surprise development, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) are fighting alongside the "Popular Mobilization" (Shi'a militia), and at the same time, enjoying air support from the allied coalition, which continues to wreck havoc with any ISIS attempts to operate during clear weather.  Early indications are that the ISF is having success retaking neighborhood after neighborhood, and that ISIS forces in Ramadi are virtually surrounded.  Since we've been down this road before, the Iraqis know to expect very few if any prisoners, and that the mopping up operation could take weeks.  An important element of the effort to retake Ramadi, is that it is taking place concurrently with operations in Salah ad-Din Province, where the Shi'a militias Asa'aib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and the Badr Organization have been successfully retaking territory northeast of Fallujah. In fact, the Popular Mobilization is active throughout Salah ad-Din Province, as Shi'a militias have retaken territory from ISIS south and southwest of Samarrah city.  The key to current operations against ISIS is the joint-activity of the allied air campaign and the Popular Mobilization.  At times, both the air coalition, led by the United States, and the Shi'a militias, backed by Iran, refused to participate in military operations as long as the other was involved.  It was an odd situation, given that at the time, Iran and the United States were conducting negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions.  Be that as it may, the tide appears to be turning in Iraq (again), especially given that ISIS has been unable to gain complete control of the Baiji refinery, a piece of real estate that may appear to be worth more than it actually is.  But it has become a bit of a rallying cry for the ISF, and they are very determined to relieve its defenders and remove the threat of ISIS control of the entire refinery.  Once Ramadi has been relieved, and the ISF and its militia partners are able to consolidate gains in Salah ad-Din province and around Baiji, then ISIS may be obliged to re-evaluate its long-term strategy.  Almost everyday brings more bad news for Bashir al-Assad in Syria, and its not necessarily ISIS that is causing the trouble.  Jabhat al-Nusrah, considered by many analysts to by Al-Qaeda's "representative" in Syria, has been conducting one successful military operation after another.  In reality, all the Islamic extremist groups who envision some form of a Sunni-based caliphate, are representing Al-Qaeda, including ISIS.  That certainly does not imply that Assad is a friend to the west, it only means that the various Islamic Sunni extremist military groups around the world all have the same goal and the same motivation.  At this point, keeping them separate no longer seems to serve a point.

News from northwest Syria is that Idlib Province has, for the most part, fallen to Jabhat al-Nusrah.  Everyday, village by village, town by town, and province by province, the end draws nearer for Bashir Al-Assad; and once it comes, no doubt there will be a serious vengeance visited upon all those who were loyal to the regime.  And as the situation becomes more desperate, the regime continues to make enemies by its use of weaponized chlorine gas attacks, barrel bombs, and indiscriminate air attacks on civilian areas.  Sooner or later, the last handful of troops loyal to Assad will realize that he and his closest comrades will escape Damascus to end their days in luxury, probably in a villa on the Black Sea.  Its no secret that the Assad family has treated the Syrian treasury as its own personal bank account, not to mention all the cash derived from all manner of bribes.  So the Assad clan will be just fine, but what about the troops who have been loyal to the end?    In Libya, the number of loyal troops disintegrated at the end, and I expect the same situation to happen in Syria.  Assad will have a limited amount of time to decide when to leave, and if he misses the deadline by the smallest of margins, we might just see Bashir lit up like a Christmas tree, inside of a cage.

We have been monitoring the media reports regarding Syria, for any indication that the clocks are ticking in Paris, Moscow, Washington, London, etc., on Bashir al-Assad's Syria. The west was taken by surprise at the swift removal of Gaddafi (no doubt he was surprised by the swift removal of his head), and I wonder if the analysts aren't giving Assad a bit more staying power than he actually has.  True, we had him practically written off once before and he bounced back.  But the giant difference between then and now is Russia. We believe that Putin is willing to allow Assad and his flock of butchers and thieves to go into exile in Russia, but that's about it.  He does not appear willing to expend anymore political capital or money on the Syrian Ba'ath movement.  Assad's predicament isn't complicated; its simply a matter of diminishing returns.  Unless the Syrian military is preparing some awe-inspiring major offensive (it would have to be out of Damascus) to turn the tide of battle, then everyday Assad can expect his loyalists to decrease in number.  A few gone over here, and a few more missing over there.  Don't be surprised to see a Syrian pilot asking for asylum soon, although I don't know if any are left that can pretend to have clean hands, i.e. never having targeted civilians.  The truth is, we're getting a little impatient.  We want to know what will happen "apres les deluge", so we are discreetly trying to nudge Assad in the right direction.  "Hey Bashir, I understand that Black Sea caviar is the richest.  Don't take any chances, Bashir; you already have no chin, how will you look with no head?  Be careful, Bashir, I opened the refrigerator this morning only to find a frozen Jabhat al-Nusrah guy inside.  Oh, that was your doing?  Sorry....."  

Another "Concerned" Leftist Wants To Abolish The CIA

Link: Abolishing The CIA

Sometimes, but not often, I must truly collect myself before writing a post.  I have linked an article by a journalist (or blogger) regarding the recent torture revelations and the future of the CIA.  First and foremost, I have no qualms stating for the record that I disagree with all of what this person has to say on the subject.  Actually, THE TRUTH disagrees with some of what he had to say.  The details contained in the politically motivated release of the report have been discussed previously.  There is nothing new here, folks.  If you have three investigations looking into the same subject, don't be surprised if by the third effort, you find yourself with old news.  This article begins with a sensational claim that the CIA allowed a man to freeze to death.  I don't believe this claim.  I want to see the evidence.  More to the point, I want to see what evidence the author who repeated this despicable accusation has seen.  What was the name of the person who died?  In which "Black Location" did it occur?  Did the Agency admit to this event?  As for some of the other claims, I will not try and defend some of the unacceptable actions of a handful of obviously misplaced CIA employees.  The "anal feeding" is something completely foreign to myself and every person with whom I have discussed this event, as is the binding of the legs of someone who is injured.  I have no doubt that these repulsive and disturbing claims are true, but we are dealing with the exception as opposed to the rule.  The United States, along with our allies, have always applied enhanced techniques during interrogation.  It happened in the Revolutionary War, and it happened in WW II.  Unfortunately, war is a nasty business, and things will on occasion get out of hand.  The goal is to minimize those episodes, with the hope of eliminating them altogether.  The events of mistreatment have been blown totally out of proportion by the same, predictable bunch of lefties that will be calling for someone else's head when the next 9/11 happens because we DIDN'T have enough intelligence.  Every once in a while I will read an article written by someone who has been part of the war and understands certain dynamics which are foreign to the average American, and this someone will criticize the behavior of the CIA.  I am willing to except negative commentary from a source with those qualifications, not this guy from the link.  It takes more than a career sitting behind a desk in Chicago to make one an expert on the truth.

What would you do? . . . Without a doubt a very important question.  You are a Federal Agent, or a government interrogator, and you have solid, verified evidence that a man in your custody knows the location of a powerful bomb.  Last week this same man has admitted to bombing a market, which killed seventy-two innocent, mostly women and children.  But today he refuses to give you the location of the unexploded ordinance.  The clock is ticking . . . what do you do?  Would you threaten the man in custody, tell him you will arrest his family if he doesn't talk?  Will you lie and tell him that his silence is a death sentence?  Will you utilize the all-to familiar emotion of fear to save the lives of unsuspecting innocents?  According to this author of the link, even this type of behavior is unacceptable.  We can't even "lie" to the bad guys.  I wonder . . . if we had one of the 9/11 hijackers in custody BEFORE the event, and the writer in question was allowed to choose the method of interaction with the terrorist, what would he decide?  The author has written a wonderful book which includes a collection of all of the essays he has written during his career.  He is a beautiful writer and in most instances I agree with his perspective.  I was truly moved by the love he feels for his family and by his expression of loss.  But I can't sit back and allow someone to advocate the destruction of the most important tool our country possesses in the battle against international terrorism.  The bad guys are out there, and the laws of human nature tell us that they would arrive sooner or later. We did not create the hatred that exists in their hearts, no more than the Shia, or the Europeans did.  Al-Qaeda, and group similar to the Islamic State, exist to destroy what has been created in favor of a new matrix.  They want an empty countryside that they can populate with more bigots who are anti-Christian, anti-Shia, anti-Hindu, anti-Women, anti-Homosexual, and anti-Chicago-based journalists.  They don't pick and choose.  The only way to defeat these thugs is to understand their motivation and what will make them respond.  It may be stating the obvious, but sometimes the only thing the bully on the playground will understand is a fist.

In 2011, the CIA demonstrated its abilities by tracking down Osama Bin Laden and orchestrating his demise, God Bless the Navy Seals.  You know about this operation because the Agency was unable to keep its involvement out of the media.  Forgive the cliché, but for every operation that gets publicized, another 100 stay undisclosed.  That is the nature of the business.  This writer in Chicago has no idea how many lives the CIA has saved in the last decade alone, yet he is so excited about advocating its abolition because of retreaded 10-yr old stories, committed by a very small number of miscreants who no longer have their jobs.  I could talk about the pressure on these guys, after 9/11, and the constant drumbeat from Congress about the need for more intelligence, but I find no excuse for their behavior; just as I find absolutely no pattern to the events that are being played out in the press, for the third go-around.  The CIA is more important than ever, and to enhance its effectiveness, the powers that be need to return the organization to its roots: humint collection.  No one in this world will be safe if we don't have brave young men and women living life dangerously in foreign countries, trying to determine what the bad guys are planning to do next.  One can never know . . . the life they save my just be living in a suburb in Chicago, Illinois.