Link: Washington Post article on Russian involvement in Syria.
I haven't read the New York times in years. I'm not alone in my disdain for politically motivated interpretation of national and international events; the Gray Lady ain't what she used to be. But I do still take a look at the Washington Post on occasion. Today's editorial by Samuel Ramani isn't terrible, but it is selectively dismissive of certain facts that really shouldn't be left out of this discussion. As his first point of conversation, Ramani introduces the issue of Putin's motivation for military involvement in Syria. Basically, he gets this one right. Putin has a handful of reasons to be interested in the Syrian conflict. As we've discussed on this blog previously, Putin really wants that Mediterranean Sea Naval Base at Tartus. Historically, Russia has always craved access to the Mediterranean. Moscow's interest in the Mediterranean caused the Ottoman Empire centuries of concern. Presently, the U.S. has naval facilities in the Mediterranean, and also in the Far East and in the Persian Gulf. Putin must frequently ask himself why Russia, as an "equal" superpower, doesn't have the same access. If Assad stays in power in Syria, and ISIS is defeated, you can bet that Russia will get that Naval Base at Tartus. I'm not sure about Putin interest in billion-dollar arms deals. I have no idea how Assad is accessing money these days, but I would be very surprised to learn that he's paying for all of the recent Russian largesse regarding military equipment and supplies. Ramani is right-on about the importance of Syria as an opportunity for Putin to demonstrate his abilities as the supreme leader of a world's superpower.
Ramani makes great import of Russia's interest in "the legitimacy of the Assad regime" as the government and authority in Damascus. I don't believe that Russia give's a rat's ass about the legitimacy of any government. Its all about Russia's interests, not Assad's legitimacy. The opposition that Putin's jets are currently blasting to bits in northeast Syria are arguably more legitimate than Assad ever was. Don't you think that if Assad could have won a free and fair election, he would have called for one before we reached this stage? Before Putin's arrival, Assad and his Ba'ath Party cronies had become so marginalized that they were close to losing the support of even the Alawite community. If Assad were in any way a legitimate ruler, he wouldn't have been facing a rebellion that almost swept aside the Levant's largest army and air force. Ramani comments about Putin's fear of the U.S. is trying to reshape the world in its own image. Right after Obama pulled U.S. troops out of Syria, and laid out a plan to do the same in Afghanistan? Actually, if we turn the clock back just a bit, we see Russian interference in Georgia, and more recently, the outright invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine. So who is trying to reshape the world here, Putin or the United States? Putin may publicly accuse the United States of imperialist intentions, but its nothing more than typical Russian obfuscation. In the last seven years, the United States has been about as expansionist as Botswana.
I agree with Ramani that Putin is determined to spread the message loud and clear that Russia will not be ignored. But Russia's intervention in Syria, with its proxy Iran alongside, is really about regional power and damaging U.S. influence in the Middle East. Putin is a megalomaniac and he does want to be acknowledged as the world leader who vanquished ISIS. I do not envision a Russian "bloc of allies" in the Middle East, the likes of which we saw in the days of Gamal Abdel Nassar and Bashar al-Assad's father, Hafez. Putin is definitely living in the moment, and recognizes that the leadership vacuum that currently exists vis-à-vis the international community and ISIS, may not last past 2016 and the next U.S. presidential election. Also, Russia's closest ally in the region is Iran, who leaders have a habit of spitting in every direction, and Tehran may not always agree with Russian strategy. Iran has serious ideas about its own regional position, and Iraq may end up causing disagreements between the two "new friends". Putin is aware that he has limited time to accomplish his goals. Expect to see more aggressive action by Russia against ISIS.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Monday, October 19, 2015
Foreign Policy Armageddon: Obama fiddles as the Middle East burns.
Link: Syria is showplace for Russia's new military.
We keep waiting for the Obama Administration to introduce a flurry of new policy initiatives to counter the aggressive movements made by Russia in Syria and Iraq, but all we get from the Oval Office is diplomatic double-speak. The fact is, it appears that the job of President no longer interests Barack Obama, and he's just counting down the days until he can become a permanent fixture on the celebrity golf circuit. Actually, I'm convinced that Obama has one more important presidential decision to make before 2016 comes to an end. I believe Obama will use Executive Action to provide a direct path to citizenship for up to twenty million illegal aliens living in the United States.
We will hear the tired excuse that Congress is broken and that the American people deserve action. I guess the American people don't deserve action as far as the Middle East is concerned, regardless of our security concerns and the fact that every country in the region short of Iran is swarming with U.S. intelligence officers, military training specialists, diplomats, aid workers, State Department personnel, evangelists, and last and least, media correspondents. I can only assume that Europe has its fair share of citizens traipsing around Baghdad, Damascus, Amman and Jerusalem as well. One interesting development to note about the European nations is their willingness to follow the United States hook, line, and sinker since Barack Obama took office. I haven't decided if its just another symptom of Obamamania, or fear on the part of the Merkels and the Hollandes that their people would remove them from office if they step out of the Obama line.
One thing is certain: now would be an ideal time to create a coalition to either oppose Putin's heavy-handedness, or build a military coalition to fight ISIS side-by-side with the Russians. It would allow the west to reap some of the good press that will result from the squashing of the Islamic State. How can I be sure that Europe would support an appeal from Obama for some kind of collective response to Russia's heavy-handed military intrusion into Syria? For the answer, all that is needed is a simple review of every policy move made by Obama since he took office. Count the times that his initiatives were in the smallest manner opposed or criticized by a European government outside of Hungary; probably never. Actually, all you need to do is observe how quickly the European leaders suffered "shrinkage" when Putin pushed the envelope on Ukraine. Obama was quick to announce that NOTHING would make him take steps harsher than sanctions in response to blatant Russian aggression. Obama provided the Russians with the European, NATO and U.S. strategy in one fell swoop: regardless of what you do, Mr. Putin, you will never have to deal with anything more uncomfortable than economic sanctions, which in reality will only end up hurting the middle-class and poor in Russia. Putin with his KGB background has never expressed the slightest sympathy for the average Russian. Once Putin knew Obama's limits, he announced the permanent annexation of Crimea.
Back to the Middle East, where President Obama continues to argue that he sits in a position of "strength", and Russia "argues from a position of weakness". Anyone who makes that statement is trying to convince an audience of something that they themselves know to be untrue. Obama has been drowning in sycophant bullshit for so long, that he thinks he can get away with anything. Hell, what am I taking about; he can. A treaty with Iran that legitimizes their in-your-face effort to obtain a home-brewed nuclear weapon (just like whiskey, home brew is always better than purchased, because if you want more, you can always make it yourself), turns Inspections into an embarrassing waste of time, and gives the Ayatollahs access to buy freely from the world's most modern stockpiles of weapons, is declared a victory by Obama. Also, he doesn't see any connection whatsoever to the return of ISIS to Iraq and the simultaneous departure of most of the U.S. military personnel. The Obama Administration's policy vs-a-vis the Arab World is so convoluted, that even the press seems about ready to throw in the towel. I give Obama some credit; in other regions, including the South China Sea, Obama appears willing to allow the experts to run the show, i.e. the U.S. Navy. In fact, for some time it appeared that he was determined not to allow the Taliban to regenerate in Afghanistan. But the Taliban are like cactus; sooner or later, they'll be back. The key is, when one of those nasty bastards shows his bearded mug in public, he should have a 500-lb bomb dropped in his lap. Considering the number of troops that have been withdrawn from Afghanistan in the last two years, I'm not optimistic regarding the success of the above-mentioned Operation Bomb the Bad Guys.
Russia is running rampant, using Turkey as its roadmap to Syria, eliminating the groups that originally opposed Bashar al-Assad, and making friends in Baghdad by providing intelligence on ISIS to the Iraqi military. Every step seems well-thought and executed, with the Iranians along for the ride. The relationship between Tehran and Moscow has become increasingly friendly as the Russians expressed their willingness to sell anything that wasn't cemented down, including nuclear-related goodies. In my next blog post, we will discuss what Iran hopes to gain from its involvement in Iraq and its evolving partnership with Russia.
We keep waiting for the Obama Administration to introduce a flurry of new policy initiatives to counter the aggressive movements made by Russia in Syria and Iraq, but all we get from the Oval Office is diplomatic double-speak. The fact is, it appears that the job of President no longer interests Barack Obama, and he's just counting down the days until he can become a permanent fixture on the celebrity golf circuit. Actually, I'm convinced that Obama has one more important presidential decision to make before 2016 comes to an end. I believe Obama will use Executive Action to provide a direct path to citizenship for up to twenty million illegal aliens living in the United States.
We will hear the tired excuse that Congress is broken and that the American people deserve action. I guess the American people don't deserve action as far as the Middle East is concerned, regardless of our security concerns and the fact that every country in the region short of Iran is swarming with U.S. intelligence officers, military training specialists, diplomats, aid workers, State Department personnel, evangelists, and last and least, media correspondents. I can only assume that Europe has its fair share of citizens traipsing around Baghdad, Damascus, Amman and Jerusalem as well. One interesting development to note about the European nations is their willingness to follow the United States hook, line, and sinker since Barack Obama took office. I haven't decided if its just another symptom of Obamamania, or fear on the part of the Merkels and the Hollandes that their people would remove them from office if they step out of the Obama line.
One thing is certain: now would be an ideal time to create a coalition to either oppose Putin's heavy-handedness, or build a military coalition to fight ISIS side-by-side with the Russians. It would allow the west to reap some of the good press that will result from the squashing of the Islamic State. How can I be sure that Europe would support an appeal from Obama for some kind of collective response to Russia's heavy-handed military intrusion into Syria? For the answer, all that is needed is a simple review of every policy move made by Obama since he took office. Count the times that his initiatives were in the smallest manner opposed or criticized by a European government outside of Hungary; probably never. Actually, all you need to do is observe how quickly the European leaders suffered "shrinkage" when Putin pushed the envelope on Ukraine. Obama was quick to announce that NOTHING would make him take steps harsher than sanctions in response to blatant Russian aggression. Obama provided the Russians with the European, NATO and U.S. strategy in one fell swoop: regardless of what you do, Mr. Putin, you will never have to deal with anything more uncomfortable than economic sanctions, which in reality will only end up hurting the middle-class and poor in Russia. Putin with his KGB background has never expressed the slightest sympathy for the average Russian. Once Putin knew Obama's limits, he announced the permanent annexation of Crimea.
Back to the Middle East, where President Obama continues to argue that he sits in a position of "strength", and Russia "argues from a position of weakness". Anyone who makes that statement is trying to convince an audience of something that they themselves know to be untrue. Obama has been drowning in sycophant bullshit for so long, that he thinks he can get away with anything. Hell, what am I taking about; he can. A treaty with Iran that legitimizes their in-your-face effort to obtain a home-brewed nuclear weapon (just like whiskey, home brew is always better than purchased, because if you want more, you can always make it yourself), turns Inspections into an embarrassing waste of time, and gives the Ayatollahs access to buy freely from the world's most modern stockpiles of weapons, is declared a victory by Obama. Also, he doesn't see any connection whatsoever to the return of ISIS to Iraq and the simultaneous departure of most of the U.S. military personnel. The Obama Administration's policy vs-a-vis the Arab World is so convoluted, that even the press seems about ready to throw in the towel. I give Obama some credit; in other regions, including the South China Sea, Obama appears willing to allow the experts to run the show, i.e. the U.S. Navy. In fact, for some time it appeared that he was determined not to allow the Taliban to regenerate in Afghanistan. But the Taliban are like cactus; sooner or later, they'll be back. The key is, when one of those nasty bastards shows his bearded mug in public, he should have a 500-lb bomb dropped in his lap. Considering the number of troops that have been withdrawn from Afghanistan in the last two years, I'm not optimistic regarding the success of the above-mentioned Operation Bomb the Bad Guys.
Russia is running rampant, using Turkey as its roadmap to Syria, eliminating the groups that originally opposed Bashar al-Assad, and making friends in Baghdad by providing intelligence on ISIS to the Iraqi military. Every step seems well-thought and executed, with the Iranians along for the ride. The relationship between Tehran and Moscow has become increasingly friendly as the Russians expressed their willingness to sell anything that wasn't cemented down, including nuclear-related goodies. In my next blog post, we will discuss what Iran hopes to gain from its involvement in Iraq and its evolving partnership with Russia.
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