How serious is the most recent resurgence of the Taliban?

Link: Taliban forces making gains in Kunduz.


In the last few weeks, the Taliban have demonstrated the ability to rise from the ashes once again.  Just a few years past, many thought that the Taliban had become just a footnote in Afghan history.  The nation was at peace, and the Afghan people seemed to embrace the idea of a more open, modern society.  Satellite dishes popped up everywhere, including outside of the capital city, and internet cafes could be found on just about every corner in Kabul.  Most impressive was the school attendance statistics, with boys and girls attending classes all over the country.  The freedom with which young Afghans embraced education, both grade school and secondary, was an indication that he continued presence of NATO and U.S. military forces was providing a strong sense of security.  But insidious organizations like the Taliban, ISIS, and Al-Qaida, never really go away.  They will always find another avenue of anger, disappointment and rage to tap into and use to their advantage.  In Afghanistan, the Taliban has always directed their recruitment efforts at the young make section of the population.  Many young men in Afghanistan have difficult lives and not much hope for a better future.  The Taliban blames this on the pervading influence of western culture, and exhorts their target audience to return to Islam, with its familiar traditions and promises of eternal life, scores of virgins, and whatever else is included in the brochure.  Another strong appeal for young Afghan men is the Taliban strict interpretation of the Quran in its instruction regarding women.  The idea of a totally subservient, uneducated wife, always waiting at home and never leaving the house without a burqa, is appealing.  Not to mention that in Taliban society, a woman is not allowed to disagree with her husband.  Beatings are common, and on the occurrence of "accidental" death, no one is prosecuted.  The Taliban has been beaten before and re-emerged, as we are seeing again today.  The ability to always appeal to the same particular common denominators guarantees that they will always have a certain percentage of the population who are willing to drink the Taliban Kool-Aid.

Following the successful September 28 offensive against Kunduz city, the Taliban have increased operational activity all throughout northern Afghanistan.  The initial display of strength has been troubling to NATO and U.S. military officials currently serving in Afghanistan.  The attempt to invest Kunduz city was expected, but the Taliban's ability to conduct large offensive operations in other provinces was not anticipated.  All intelligence had pointed to a resurgence in Taliban influence and numbers, but the Taliban is demonstrating an offensive capacity, including weapons and supplies, that was unknown before the week of September 28th.  It appears that the intel folks will have to review their assessment.  Interestingly, some concern is already being expressed regarding the defense of the capital Kabul.  A quick glance at Iraq reveals a similar scenario.  Iraq has Ramadi, Afghanistan has Kunduz; both the extremists and the government are willing to expend great resources to gain full control of this particular city.  In the last year or so, concern has been raised regarding the threat that ISIS poses to Baghdad.  With ISIS able to conduct operations in Diyala Province to the east of Baghdad, Salah al-Din to the north and Anbar to the west, Iraq's capital city is indeed in a difficult position, although ISIS' ability to actually lay siege to such a large city is in question.  Kabul is also under threat, but just how long it will take the Taliban to reach that point is unknown.  The Taliban will be just as interested in taking Kabul as ISIS is in occupying Baghdad because for many average Afghans the news that Kabul is under the control of the Taliban is all they would need to fall back into the extremist footstep.  Due to predictable Taliban infighting, the Afghan government does have some time to prepare its Armed Forces for a counter-offensive in the north, probably focusing on the recapture of Kunduz.  As far as the Taliban are concerned, Mullah Akthar Mansour is still consolidating his power base by establishing a presence in Badakhshan, Takhar and Bakhlan Provinces.  No doubt the current offensives in Jowzjan, Faryab, and Farah Provinces were also part of that effort.   

Extremist Recruitment and Who is Qatar?

Links:
Islam's New Recruiting Methods
Qatar's Role as U.S. Ally At odds With Claims it Sponsors Terror
Fed's Bulletin Describes Threat of Imminent Terrorist Attack on Southern Border

Two days ago I commented on an issue which should be at the forefront of domestic counter-terrorism efforts.  Islamic extremists are here in our communities, folks, and they are looking for disaffected young people to join their causes.  I hope that all Federal Law Enforcement personnel affiliated with counter-terrorism operations will take the time to read the Brigette Gabriel piece that I have linked.  Ms. Gabriel is one of the most brilliant, well-spoken persons who put themselves at risk by regularly commenting on Islamic Extremism.  Because of her heritage, Gabriel brings immediate bona fides to her perspective.  Unfortunately her heritage also makes her a target for extremists who believe that Muslim women are not worthy or intelligent enough to discuss these matters.  Let's get one thing straight: Gabriel is not shrinking violet.  She will go toe-to-toe with the best of them, and wins her arguments through honesty, wisdom and integrity.
Islamic extremists have been recruiting in certain American communities for decades.  Particular groups of disaffected young people have shown a willingness to listen to the jihadist point of view.  Most of the targets are young men, so the traditional argument that women should be kept covered, quiet, out of sight, and compliant usually meets with approval.  And then we have the "40 virgins" (or whatever) that are alleged to be waiting in Heaven for those who "die for the cause".  I have no intention of turning this blog into a discussion about faith.  In my world, faith is a very personal issue, and excuse the cliché, but buttholes come in all shapes, sizes, and religions.  For many years my mantra was "mind your own business".  But the spread of Islamic extremism has made things a bit tricky.  The jihadist believes so strongly in the righteousness of his/her cause, that mosques and schools have become great places to hide missiles, weapons and ammunition.  Mosques are ideal for spreading particular messages, and recruiting for extremist causes.  Intelligence Agencies in the United States and in Europe (and also in China and East Asia, I had been informed) have no difficulty determining links from one extremist mosque to the next.  With the advent of a "borderless" Europe, people, money, and even weapons can be transported from a mosque (or religiously affiliated schools, etc.) in one country to a mosque on another.  There is usually a main mosque with an Imam who considers himself a big shot (egos know no bounds with some of these Imams).  Mosques affiliated with extremist beliefs are usually easy to find because these Imams just can't keep quiet.  They have to shout their hatred of all things "western" louder than the guy at the mosque down the street.  It would behoove them to preach a quieter more peaceful brand of Islam
so as to avoid attention.  But they just can't seem to help themselves.
I won't go into detail regarding the efforts to recruit in the United States and Europe, because the main points are relatively simple.  Educated persons are in high demand, and also persons with a particular trade (IEDs can be tricky).  At this stage, groups like ISIS/ISIL are looking for recently retired soldiers (I'm sure they would welcome an active duty soldier as well, God help us all) who have been trained on particular weaponry.  I'm sure they are looking for folks who have first-hand knowledge of Russian-made weaponry as well.  A recent Google satellite shot of Al-Taqbah Airbase in Syria revealed at least 10 Mig-21s sitting on the tarmac.  This is the airbase that ISIS/ISIL captured this last week.  From what I understand, the Migs were still there (who knows what condition they're in).  So keep your eyes peeled in the classifieds of Pravda for ads "looking for persons who can fly Mig-21s".  I'm more interested in what else they picked up at that airfield.  Hopefully nothing that can help them mount a biological agent delivery-system.
I assume that the inner cities of the United States, places with rampant unemployment and urban blight, are prime locations for jihadi recruitment.  I imagine the Russians need to look closely at Chechnya and some of the other former Soviet Republics, if they even give a shit at this point (its been at least a few months since someone blew themselves up in Moscow).
My second link deals with the frequent accusations that Qatar is involved with supporting Islamic extremist groups.  This is not a simple matter.  There are a handful of obscenely rich royal families in the Gulf, and each family has hundreds if not thousands of obscenely wealthy members.  The ruling Shaykh of each family is traditionally burdened with keeping everyone square, but in truth it is impossible to know who is giving money to whom.  There was recently an incident at an airport in one of the U.A.E. Emirates (yes, I know I said "Emirates" twice in a row) during which a number of jumbo jets were left unclaimed.  These people literally do have money to burn.  As for the Shaykh of Qatar (from the Al-Thani clan), I have no reason to believe that he or his government have any financial dealings with groups like ISIS/ISIL.  Since Hamas is considered by many to have social and political functions, I would expect Hamas and the Qatari government to have an official relationship.  But the Qataris have hosted the U.S. Fleet for many years without incident.  I'm sure some members of the royal family do financially contribute to the bad guys.  Personally, though, I believe it pales in comparison to the "support for extremists" activities of some of the other royal families of the Gulf.
My final link of the day is an article about possible terrorist activity on the Texas border, namely El Paso.  In all honestly, the article didn't really shake me up.  It appears that Judicial Watch is quoting from a Department of Homeland Security release of some sort.  I would not be surprised to see attempts to destabilize our cities with IEDs, etc., but not with a singular attack in El Paso.  I'm more concerned with a series of pre-planned, well-organized and coordinated attacks in Metro areas.  I don't think we have any idea how many operatives are currently sitting in place.  Hopefully none.