What Type Of Battle Would Result From A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan?

Links: A. China Plans To Invade Taiwan
           B. Taiwan Plans Defensive Strategy
           C. China Prepares.....
           D. As Does Taiwan

As the new year started, I jumped head-first into a series of commentaries on Al-Qaeda.  I've decided to mix things up a bit, just to keep everyone awake.  We haven't paid a visit to

China lately, and the Taiwan issue is always good for discussion.  At one time or another, we've all wondered why the Chicoms haven't invaded Taiwan already.  Beijing seems to be exhibiting a tremendous amount of patience, which does seem to be a strong suit.  Every year, trade between the two Chinas increases, as does tourism.  In fact, more Chinese visit Taiwan than vice-versa.  During the dark years of Mao and the Cultural Revolution, the Chicoms were forced to look across the Strait of Taiwan and imagine the budding capitalist society that was humming away. As China struggled through a bit of an identity crisis under Deng Xiaoping, the Taiwanese economy exploded, the island became weighed down with international companies worth billions, and the Kuomintang (Nationalists) lost an election.  The Kuomintang is the political party of former dictator and "father of Taiwan", Chang Kai-Shek, and for many years, only one party was allowed to contest elections. The Kuomintang carried on as if the war with Mao and the Commies never really ended, and the national goal continued to be the reoccupation of the mainland.  When the people of Taiwan finally insisted on a multi-party system, and almost immediately bounced the Kuomintang from the office of President, the message wasn't so much a repudiation of Chang Kai-Shek as it was a message to the world that Taiwan no longer had a beef with China.  Surprisingly, Beijing responded quickly to the overtures from Taipei, and commercial airline service was started.  Everything was moving ahead swimmingly, until the Chinese started referring to the day when Taiwan would become just another Chinese province, and the Taiwanese responded with a bit of noise about becoming an independent nation.  Since 1949, the United States has vouched for the defense of Taiwan, although recently an administration or two has toyed with the idea of cutting back on our military presence in the South China Sea.  If China attacked Taiwan, the shit would hit the fan in so many directions, I don't believe that the United States military would have a clue how to respond.  You see, Taiwan hasn't been sitting around waiting for the Red Army to come for tea.  The battle for Taiwan would be a military engagement like none that we've seen in our existence.  Here's why:

When it comes to military stuff, I'm a typical guy.  I love reading about tanks and ships and ancient battles, and I am always interested in the state of readiness of the world's armies. China has the world's largest army.  We like to refer to it affectionately as the Red Army, but the Chinese prefer it to be called "The People's Liberation Army".  For many years, China was able to rely on the size of its army to influence conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia.  In the last three decades or so, China has dedicated itself to reforming its military and bringing it up to specs with the modern age.  In many ways they have been successful.  China is a nuclear power and has atomic weapons.  Importantly, China has made great progress in the development of missile delivery systems.  A substantial amount of Chinese technology has benefitted from espionage, theft from reverse-engineering, and outright bribery.  China has inserted itself into U.S. presidential elections, and managed to convince a former President to "un-ban" certain technologies from being sold to China.  The Chinese continue to steal technology from our Laboratories and our universities, especially the ones with Department of Defense research contracts.  China has also taken advantage of the Moscow yard-sale that took place following the end of the Cold War.  Beijing was able to buy all sorts of Russian military hardware, re-engineer what was useful and throw away the junk.  China even managed to purchase a Russian Aircraft Carrier (for some reason, the Chinese just can't build an aircraft carrier).  As for Taiwan, they were able to use all that capitalism largesse to buy the latest and best military equipment on the planet, and it's all Made in the USA.

As of 2015 (estimates), China has 2,285,000 frontline troops (trained and equipped), and 2,300,000 reserves (also trained and equipped).  China has about 9100 tanks, but they are of various makes and models (and ages), and are also the local product.  From the few times we've seen them in combat, they were less-than impressive.  China also has over 6100 Artillery pieces, and almost 2000 multi-launch rocket systems.  But the troops and hardware make no difference if you can't deliver them to the battlefield.  The Chinese Navy has a healthy number of frigates and destroyers, and a scary number of submarines (69).  But does China have the necessary size and number of transport/landing craft to deposit the Chinese Army on the beaches of Taiwan?  And a beach-landing will require at least some control of the seas.  Sure, you can deliver troops with an airborne resource, but that requires control of the air.

Taiwan's standing army is 290,000 strong, and its reserve element is 1,675,000.  Taiwan has roughly 2000 tanks, with 600 MBTs (Main Battle Tanks) that are either old or of outdated design.  Taiwan has a real tank dilemma, but rumor is that the Taiwanese Army will soon acquire 200 surplus M1A2 Abrams tanks.  Taiwan has useful number of artillery pieces, considering its an island.  Taiwan's Navy is a decent size, and has undertaken an ambitious program to construct its own submarines by the year 2025 (this issue will be resolved by then, guaranteed).  If China were to attempt an invasion of Taiwan, everything would depend on one factor: air superiority.

For China to invade Taiwan, it must first transport its invasion force to within sight of the beaches.  Ideally, the landing craft then take over, transporting the troops, tanks and equipment to the beach head.  This cannot be accomplished without close to total control of the skies.  The same situation confronted General Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1944, when he was planning the invasion of Europe.  The allies were able to pound any German air resources into dust before the invasion began, ensuring no trouble from above.  I assume the Chinese would also utilize a great deal of airborne troops, who would parachute in behind the beach defensive positions and attack the enemy from both directions.  Here is the million dollar question: is the Chinese Air Force strong enough to defeat the Taiwanese Air Force?  By the numbers (I'm leaving out transport, training, etc.), China has 1,170 fighters, 885 fixed-wing fighters and 856 attack helicopters.  Taiwan has 286 fighters, 264 fixed-wing fighters, and 68 attack helicopters.  On paper, it certainly doesn't look like a fair fight.  But the Taiwanese are flying the latest version of the F16, and who really knows what the Chinese are relying upon this week.  Earlier in 2014, word got out that China was purchasing twenty-four Russian Sukhoi-35 Flanker fighter jets.  Without doubt, the Chinese will take them apart and build their own version.  Again, the Chinese have problems developing an indigenous capacity to build certain items.  Aircraft Carriers are one example, and Fighter Planes are another.  On occasion, whatever it is that the Chinese have reverse-engineered ends up falling apart anyway, because the original design was a piece of shit!  Trust a Russian avionics design?  Fly Aeroflot (Aero-FLOP)?  Not me!

The Chinese Attack Helicopters are also no match for the Taiwanese.  Much of what we are discussing will rely on the pilots and their training.  Again, Taiwan is heads-and-tails above the Chinese, mainly because of the quality and dedication of the U.S. military.  We continue to conduct joint training exercises with Taiwan, and word is, the Taiwanese pilots are sensational.  Back to our scenario: if China decides to invade Taiwan, sheer numbers alone tilt the probability in China's favor (for the purpose of this conversation, I am eliminating the possibility of U.S. military intervention).  Weather could play a factor, but you would imagine that the Chinese would plan the date of their operation accordingly.  If the Chinese Air Force lays an egg against the Taiwanese fighters over the Taiwan Strait, the transport vessels and landing craft will be sitting ducks for modern jet fighters.  And if the Chinese Air Force is unable to pepper the defensive positions, then Taiwanese armor, anti-tank units and artillery will have a field day with the landing craft and vehicles trying to organize on the beach (assuming they have had time to be transported to the beach front).

A victory for Taiwan in the skies over the Taiwan Strait translates to successfully repelling a Chinese invasion.  If the Chinese Air Force is able to stay roughly even or better, then Taiwan reverts back to a province of the People's Republic (?) of China.  I'm fascinated by the different opinions I've heard on this subject.  Please don't hesitate to let me know how you feel.

Is Mainland China Still A Communist Nation?

Links: A. China Moves Away From Reform
           B. People's Liberation Army

We all have certain phrases and clichés that rub us the wrong way.  One phrase which always brings out the red-ass in me is, "we must compromise with China because they are the world's biggest economy".  Actually, a few variants exist on the same basic theme.  Reading between the lines, the point is that since China has become so powerful economically, we must defer to China and ignore the distasteful laws and actions of the government in Beijing.  The detention and execution of political reformers, religious intolerance as a rule, and hardline support for the likes of Kim Jung-Un in North Korea are three particular issues that I have with China, and if you give me about two minutes I can come up with five more.  While the western world was attempting to peacefully evolve from the age of colonialism, China invaded Tibet and brutally murdered any and all local opposition.  China continues to clamp down on even the slightest display of nationalism in Tibet, which is about as indigenous to China as Tahiti is to France.  I'm not usually an apologist for Islamic "freedom fighters", but China has reacted brutally to expressions of Islamic identity in far western Chinese Provinces.  I believe these examples are all indications that the Chinese government is just as reactionary and just as opposed to basic individual freedoms as they have always been. 

The evolution of a Chinese middle class has done much to encourage people into believing that China isn't a Communist country anymore.  How could they be, with such a large and powerful economy?  China does have a growing middle class (growing SLOWLY), and also an elite class of highly placed party leaders who lead lives very different that the average rice grower out in the provinces.  The Generals who sit in positions of power in the People's Liberation Army all lead very comfortable private lives as well.  Their families also enjoy the benefits of luxury and influence.  But this is how Communism has always betrayed itself.  If you've managed to get through anything penned by Karl Marx (don't lie!), you know that the example must be set at the top, not at the bottom.  Wealth should be evenly distributed, and equality should be the focus of all government domestic policy.  But Communism has yet to follow through on this admirable but unrealistic plan.  Have a look at the Soviet Union, Laos, Vietnam, and China, just for starters.  The people in positions of authority (I thought the working class was the societal authority?) always live well, or at least better than most.  In China today, I wouldn't be surprised if the growth of the middle class slows to a crawl, and the number of rich Chinese dramatically increases.

For the average citizen of China, the rules and regulations of Chinese society haven't changed in over sixty years.  Well then, why do we see so many wealthy Chinese?  Because someone found a way to game the system.  When Europe and the United States opened up to China and embraced Chinese products, the increased flow of money allowed a select few to take advantage of newly discovered avenues to wealth.  Chinese products have always been attractive to western consumers.  Originally interest might have been influence by the sense of the exotic that Chinese products delivered.  Quickly, though, it became about money.  Chinese merchandise was always much cheaper than the competitor.  Chinese businessmen who were fortunate enough to have a relative in the National Bank were able to take out loans and build large factories, duplicating European products at a fraction of the cost.  These businessmen joined the wealthy list as well.  But China is a country of more than one billion people, and the vast majority have always lived within the confines of a limited economy.  The closest most Chinese will ever come to wealth is to wash dishes in an exclusive Shanghai restaurant.

The Chinese economy is a force to be reckoned with.  I will argue that the United States, Japan, and Europe were instrumental in helping the Chinese economy transform so dramatically in a relatively short period of time.  The Chinese needed open markets and favorable trade agreements, and the west obliged.  In the 1970s, the argument was, "there are almost a billion Chinese, we MUST be supportive of their efforts to reform (expand) their economy".  Along with the establishment of middle and upper classes, the Chinese government became flush with cash.  Not just from favorable trade, but also from a streamlined tax system.  The Chinese used the financial largesse to increase their influence diplomatically, especially through building projects in Africa (roads, dams, hospitals, etc.). The Chinese also enjoyed spending money in the United States, with enormous real estate ventures on both coasts.  As far as I am concerned, the most important figure in this discussion is 1.2 trillion.  That is the amount, in dollars, of U.S. debt that China currently owns (eight percent).  How does a Communist country manage to own such a substantial amount of debt from the world's wealthiest nation?  Forgive....I hate rhetorical questions as much as you.

I believe that China is a Communist country.  A country-side tour, outside of Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and Guangzhou, will remind the tourist that China continues to be more rural than urban.  Subsistence farming is still the staple way of life for many Chinese families.  It's my understanding that the educational system has improved dramatically in the past two decades, both by the number of schools and the quality of teachers.  As the economy flexes, jobs are created, and China gives the appearance of a nation on the move.  Allow me to share with you the reasons why China continues to be deeply embedded in Communism.  The entire educational system is controlled by the government.  Every Chinese government school textbook is pure propaganda.  Once a student completes what we would consider "grade school", they must take a test to determine their aptitude for whatever direction that they would prefer (occupation/trade).  Most young Chinese follow in their father's footsteps; its probably rarely by choice.  I have had the pleasure of meeting many Chinese students who are studying at U.S. universities.  The tuition for these foreign students is almost always paid for by the university.  After a bit of research, I learned that these students were the children of Generals, Admirals and Governors.  I would have been so thrilled to read, "rice farmer" under the space marked "parent occupation", but it was not to be.  So anyone who thinks that China is "less" Communist because of the plethora of Chinese students studying at U.S. schools, think again.  Chinese students almost always attend universities who have been selected for highly sensitive U.S. Department of Defense research projects.  These students enter the United States with a server on their computer that can't be monitored, and links them directly to Beijing.  This information has been detailed in one news article after another, yet left-wing academia continues to arm-wrestle for the opportunity to host Chinese students.

In the past, Communist nations have always spent disproportionately on their military budgets. I'm not exactly sure where China fits on a scale of military spending, but I do know that since the Nixon rapprochement with China in 1972, the Chinese have become steadily less reliant on outside sources for military equipment, and better at copying the best that the west has to offer.  The Chinese have refined a particularly nasty little trick that a number of countries like to try.  If a particular company has created a really useful mobile missile launcher (for example), the Chinese will invite the company reps to demonstrate the equipment in China.  The reps will be wined and dined, and given the impression that the sale is basically a done-deal.  Sometime while the equipment is in storage in China, the Chinese will take it apart down to the last screw, photograph and measure everything, then put the equipment back together.  The next day, the company reps are abruptly dismissed with a curt, "not interested".  Roughly one year down the road, the Chinese will introduce their own, "indigenous" mobile missile launcher.  But China has not always played the game so smoothly.  One reason why Taiwan has not been swallowed up by the mainland (yet), is because the Chinese Air Force could not guarantee control of the air.  The Taiwanese pilots in their latest F16s were more than a match to waves of whatever the Chinese pilots were flying at the time.  Another issue was naval.  The Chinese navy did not possess a dependable method for transporting troops across the Taiwan Strait (sitting ducks for the Taiwan Air Force).  But since the late 1970s the Chinese have made steady progress in all areas of military concern.  Some people will ask why the Chinese don't just invade Taiwan and resolve the issue once and for all.  I'm sure China could.  When a country can turn to a population of over one billion, there can be no doubt that China could just drop a million troops on Taiwan and smoother the country into submission.  But we are dealing with subtleties here.  The Taiwanese military is no slouch.  It's well-equipped and well-trained, and the navy includes three Daphne-class French submarines that are capable of housing a missile delivery system.  The mainland Chinese are itching to take Taiwan, but they want to look good completing the job.  So a few more military preparations appear to be in order.

Most folks would find it easier to identify a Democracy than a Communist state.  As Eric Cartman on South Park put it so eloquently: "Its the difference between smelling the sweet air of freedom or the stale air of repression".  The Chinese government has shown no disposition towards religious tolerance, and in far western China, Muslims are being targeted by Chinese police and military solely for practicing Islam.  Rumors abound in China that couples are only allowed to have one child, and lets hope that the newborn isn't a girl.  The Chinese government has population controls, in that you must apply to live in certain areas (the Chinese have grown accustomed to many, many waiting lists).  We have already demonstrated the tight grip the government has on all levels of education.  As for students, the government likes to turn them into little spies, because they have the kind of valuable access that case officers would love to have.  I could go on and on, but I think I've made my point.  China continues to be a nation happily integrated at every level with Communist philosophy.  Am I sure?  Have you taken a peak at their electoral process lately?