*Disclaimer: during today's blog post, I will attempt to compare some of the political views of candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. If, from your perspective, I incorrectly identify a policy position of either nominee, feel free to send me a note, yell at me, or wish me ill-fortune. Any and all errors are undoubtedly not mine, but the fault of the two candidates.
If the American voter makes the effort to examine the issues and the opinions of the two nominees, Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, then we should have a good idea just how conservative/liberal the United States has become. The reason the political landscape should become crystal clear is because we have two candidates who couldn't be further apart on the issues. Donald Trump openly espouses conservative beliefs and intentions, while Hillary is sounding more liberal than ever before. Interestingly enough, both candidates have a prior history of being somewhat moderate, but 2016 finds the American populace deeply divided, and both candidates have left moderation behind. The Obama Administration in itself was a tremendous mobilizer for the right. Conservatives have been waiting for the opportunity to voice their disapproval to everything from Obamacare to Gay Marriage. Donald Trump embraced the primary season with an agenda that included insulting every person who had the temerity to disagree (with Mr. Trump). Many unhappy Americans chose to live vicariously through Trump, especially when he addressed either Obama or Clinton directly (through Twitter). To the average conservative, Republicans in Congress appeared unwilling to stand up to the Democrats in any fashion. Sure, Congress convened one investigation after another, but all that was achieved was to aggravate an already open wound. During the primaries, Trump was successful uniting conservative voters at the ballot box, while Hillary had all sorts of trouble shaking her only real opponent, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. The self-identified Democrat-Socialist gave Clinton headaches, and his ability to appeal to young voters made it clear to the Clinton Camp that the S.S. Hillary needed to take a sharp turn to the left. Trump knows his only hope of winning is to ratchet up the same game plan that has worked so well. He must remain confrontational, introducing a different Clinton scandal day after day; Hillary needs to remind voters of Trump's bruises as well. When all is said and done, this election may go down as the most negative in history.
From the beginning, it was assumed that Hillary Clinton would appear more able to handle foreign policy issues that Donald Trump. Not only was Hillary Clinton First Lady for eight years, but she was also a one-term Senator from New York and Barack Obama's Secretary of State during Obama's first term. Clinton has been all over the world and met with hundreds of foreign leaders and dignitaries. Oddly enough, in all that time, Hillary never thought it prudent to learn a foreign language. Regardless, Hillary is recognized as being deeply involved in the negotiations that resulted in 2010's New Start Missile Reduction Treaty with Russia. Don't expect to hear Hillary bring up this Treaty very often in the campaign. Basically, it calls for the United States to voluntarily eliminate our remaining ballistic missile deterrent vis-à-vis Russia. Now that Vladimir Putin is recognized for the snake that he is, and Russia's signature isn't worth a bucket of shit, you can expect Hillary to avoid the subject altogether. Unfortunately, Hillary was also strongly supportive of Barack Obama's legacy Nuclear Treaty with Iran, which has proven over and over again to be completely untrustworthy. Also, Hillary must explain to the voter how it was that we were caught so unaware during the Arab Spring. Why was the Clinton State Department always so reactive, as opposed to proactive? Trump, on the other hand, must rely on his skills of persuasion and the popularity of his policies to convince voters that his foreign policy ideas are more in-line with the average American.
Trump has made the issue of immigration one of the cornerstones of his campaign. In the beginning, many political pundits considered this decision to be a mistake, but the anticipated backlash has yet to materialize. The truth is, once you dig a little deeper, you discover that most Americans are very concerned about immigration and support increasing security and enforcement on the border. This very well could be the issue which sinks one of these candidates. Our immigration system is broken, and regardless of what you hear from the Obama Administration, deportations have ground to a halt in this country, including deportations of felons. After hearing about another murder committed by a foreign national felon, aren't you getting tired of asking the same question, "why wasn't this guy deported before he committed another crime?" Many Americans are offended to the core to see school children waving and showing reverence to the Mexican flag, while stepping on Old Glory, and we saw it time and time again last summer. Regardless of the cause, this type of imagery, which is repeated ad nauseam during any event related to immigration, is a boon for Mr. Trump. In order to placate Sanders and his crowd of unwashed twenty-first century hippies, Hillary will have to support the most liberal immigration platform that was ever crafted at a Party Convention. No doubt it will include support for the Obama Administration's Amnesty. Support for this policy will make it difficult for Hillary to ever fully step out of Obama's shadow, at least during the election.
Trump and Clinton may actually agree on some foreign trade issues. Both candidates have expressed support for the American laborer, as existing trade agreements with Europe, Asia and North America always seem to be more concerned with the foreign worker. In reality, neither candidate has yet to put forth a detailed plan regarding the restructuring of America's trade agreements. There can be no doubt that the playing field is uneven, with countries like China able to protect their workers and product through trade agreement and tariffs, while the United States appears to always be the one sacrificing. I look forward to the day when we no longer have to hear some loud-mouth politician lecturing about China's economy being so huge that we must ignore human rights violations, aggressive, dangerous espionage, especially in our universities, theft of department of defense property, and daily, deliberate hacking that is costing the United States billions of dollars. I'm a bit worried about Hillary Clinton and the Chinese, only because they always seem to be involved in her political campaigns (google "Hillary Clinton" and "Chinese Campaign Contributions").
Today we have taken a look at a few of the issues that the two candidates will be debating during the next two months. Later this week, we will examine a few additional policy differences. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump both have a lot to say regarding Taxes, and who should pay what. At least they agree on the need for a more simple tax form. We look forward to seeing you hear throughout the tumultuous next ten weeks.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
What conclusions to draw regarding the recent events in Turkey, and how those events impact U.S. policy in the region.
Link: Attempted Coup In Turkey- NY Times
When I first saw the televised announcements last weekend regarding what appeared to be a coup attempt in Turkey, it didn't take long for me to realize that whoever was attempting to take control of the government in Turkey had absolutely no idea what they were doing. There is good reason for my surprise; coups are not uncommon in recent world history, with Turkey having already experienced a few in the last half-century. As I tried to make sense from what little information was available, I kept expecting to hear that the government had been taking into custody, the airport secured, and heavy armor rumbling down every major thoroughfare. The plotters were able to gain control of the radio for a limited time, during which they announced that the coup was necessary to protect against further erosion of civil liberties. The plotters announced a governing council and promised to adhere to all existing treaties. This message should have continued playing, or at least a blackout should have gone in affect. Instead, almost immediately after the attempted coup was announced in the western press, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on FaceTime and Skype, instructing the people to stand up to the coup by occupying the town squares and taking to the city streets, which they did, en force. Within an hour or two, Erdogan was holding a press conference at Ataturk International Airport (I'm still not sure why he was on a plane to begin with), announcing that the coup had failed, and that the plotters would be treated harshly.
In order to understand what occurred in Turkey, a bit of background information is necessary. For centuries, Turkey existed as the Ottoman Empire. In the sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries, the Ottoman Empire was an international superpower, at times occupying European territory up to the gates of Vienna. The Empire was ruled by a Sultan, who was also recognized as Caliph, the religious leader of Muslims. As history demonstrates time and time again, all Empires seem to have an expiration date. The Ottomans, in an attempt to rejuvenate a crippled economy and recapture international respect, made the mistake of joining the losing side in World War One (Austria-Hungary and Germany). For most folks, the war ended in 1918, but Turkey suffered through both a civil war and a war of independence simultaneously. A leader emerged from the struggle who was destined to transform Turkey. Kemal Ataturk was a former highly-decorated Ottoman Army Officer, and he ushered in what we know today as modern Turkey. Ataturk was determined to create a secular Turkey. He abolished the Sultanate and the Caliphate, and required that Turkish be taught in public schools. Women were encouraged to abandon the headscarf and men stopped wearing the fez. During the Second World War, Turkey remained neutral until the very end, with Ataturk in firm control of the government. When Ataturk finally died, he left behind a democracy backed by a very strong military. Over the years, when the military has grown concerned about corruption, or the rise in religious extremism, or what it perceived as a threat to secular Turkey, it has called out the troops and tanks and removed certain governments. At times, the military has kept control of the government much longer than anticipated, but democratic elections would eventually take place. Turkey has had a thriving democracy in part because of the military's willingness to protect its secular traditions.
In the last five years, Erdogan has moved Turkey further and further away from this tradition. Most recently, he has boldly moved against the media, not hesitating to arrest any journalist who speaks against his Administration. Erdogan has always governed in coalition with Islamist parties, and has already taken steps to remove military officers who might oppose his future intentions. The idea that the Turkish military would attempt a coup was not a surprise. The surprise was that this coup never had a chance of succeeding. Erdogan blames the coup on disgruntled military officers and Turks in exile who he considers enemies. But nothing he says makes any sense, and I'm not alone in my suspicion. I believe that Erdogan either planned or encouraged the coup himself. The plotters never took the necessary actions to give their efforts any hope of success. Where was the Air Force, the military branch which has been traditionally the most hostile to Erdogan? Why wasn't the airport occupied and Erdogan's plane shot down when it approached for landing? Why wasn't the government arrested or at least detained?
Regardless of who was behind the coup attempt, the result is particularly frightening. Erdogan is purging everything short of elementary schools. Anyone who had ever acknowledged any type of opposition to Erdogan has been arrested or fired. The Turks who came out into the streets, shouting their support for Erdogan and waving Turkish flags, now have the dictator they deserve. The first to suffer will be the Academic community, then the economy will grind to a halt. Erdogan will blame the West, in particular the United States. As far as I'm concerned, removing our military presence from Turkey is overdue. I'm fed up hearing stories of our servicemen and their families being harassed by Erdogan's nationalist thugs. If the Turks don't want us in Turkey, then we should leave. Let Erdogan negotiate his way out of NATO. He's already guaranteed that Turkey will never be a member of the European Union. I think Erdogan has visions of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire, but those days of grandeur are long gone. Turkey does not have the economy or the infrastructure to be a superpower. Don't be surprised, though, if Ankara starts to resemble Caracas.
When I first saw the televised announcements last weekend regarding what appeared to be a coup attempt in Turkey, it didn't take long for me to realize that whoever was attempting to take control of the government in Turkey had absolutely no idea what they were doing. There is good reason for my surprise; coups are not uncommon in recent world history, with Turkey having already experienced a few in the last half-century. As I tried to make sense from what little information was available, I kept expecting to hear that the government had been taking into custody, the airport secured, and heavy armor rumbling down every major thoroughfare. The plotters were able to gain control of the radio for a limited time, during which they announced that the coup was necessary to protect against further erosion of civil liberties. The plotters announced a governing council and promised to adhere to all existing treaties. This message should have continued playing, or at least a blackout should have gone in affect. Instead, almost immediately after the attempted coup was announced in the western press, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was on FaceTime and Skype, instructing the people to stand up to the coup by occupying the town squares and taking to the city streets, which they did, en force. Within an hour or two, Erdogan was holding a press conference at Ataturk International Airport (I'm still not sure why he was on a plane to begin with), announcing that the coup had failed, and that the plotters would be treated harshly.
In order to understand what occurred in Turkey, a bit of background information is necessary. For centuries, Turkey existed as the Ottoman Empire. In the sixteenth, seventeenth, and eighteenth centuries, the Ottoman Empire was an international superpower, at times occupying European territory up to the gates of Vienna. The Empire was ruled by a Sultan, who was also recognized as Caliph, the religious leader of Muslims. As history demonstrates time and time again, all Empires seem to have an expiration date. The Ottomans, in an attempt to rejuvenate a crippled economy and recapture international respect, made the mistake of joining the losing side in World War One (Austria-Hungary and Germany). For most folks, the war ended in 1918, but Turkey suffered through both a civil war and a war of independence simultaneously. A leader emerged from the struggle who was destined to transform Turkey. Kemal Ataturk was a former highly-decorated Ottoman Army Officer, and he ushered in what we know today as modern Turkey. Ataturk was determined to create a secular Turkey. He abolished the Sultanate and the Caliphate, and required that Turkish be taught in public schools. Women were encouraged to abandon the headscarf and men stopped wearing the fez. During the Second World War, Turkey remained neutral until the very end, with Ataturk in firm control of the government. When Ataturk finally died, he left behind a democracy backed by a very strong military. Over the years, when the military has grown concerned about corruption, or the rise in religious extremism, or what it perceived as a threat to secular Turkey, it has called out the troops and tanks and removed certain governments. At times, the military has kept control of the government much longer than anticipated, but democratic elections would eventually take place. Turkey has had a thriving democracy in part because of the military's willingness to protect its secular traditions.
In the last five years, Erdogan has moved Turkey further and further away from this tradition. Most recently, he has boldly moved against the media, not hesitating to arrest any journalist who speaks against his Administration. Erdogan has always governed in coalition with Islamist parties, and has already taken steps to remove military officers who might oppose his future intentions. The idea that the Turkish military would attempt a coup was not a surprise. The surprise was that this coup never had a chance of succeeding. Erdogan blames the coup on disgruntled military officers and Turks in exile who he considers enemies. But nothing he says makes any sense, and I'm not alone in my suspicion. I believe that Erdogan either planned or encouraged the coup himself. The plotters never took the necessary actions to give their efforts any hope of success. Where was the Air Force, the military branch which has been traditionally the most hostile to Erdogan? Why wasn't the airport occupied and Erdogan's plane shot down when it approached for landing? Why wasn't the government arrested or at least detained?
Regardless of who was behind the coup attempt, the result is particularly frightening. Erdogan is purging everything short of elementary schools. Anyone who had ever acknowledged any type of opposition to Erdogan has been arrested or fired. The Turks who came out into the streets, shouting their support for Erdogan and waving Turkish flags, now have the dictator they deserve. The first to suffer will be the Academic community, then the economy will grind to a halt. Erdogan will blame the West, in particular the United States. As far as I'm concerned, removing our military presence from Turkey is overdue. I'm fed up hearing stories of our servicemen and their families being harassed by Erdogan's nationalist thugs. If the Turks don't want us in Turkey, then we should leave. Let Erdogan negotiate his way out of NATO. He's already guaranteed that Turkey will never be a member of the European Union. I think Erdogan has visions of resurrecting the Ottoman Empire, but those days of grandeur are long gone. Turkey does not have the economy or the infrastructure to be a superpower. Don't be surprised, though, if Ankara starts to resemble Caracas.
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